Game 7 Predictions & Odds: Thunder vs. Rockets

• September 2, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

The second Game 7 of the NBA Bubble will take place on Wednesday when the No. 4 Houston Rockets and No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder square off in the finale of the opening round series.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: Western Conference Game 7
• First Round Series: Series tied 3-3
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Wednesday, Sep. 2, 2020
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

James Harden (L) and Russell Westbrook look to lift the Rockets to a Game 7 win over the Thunder. (AP)

Betting Odds - Thunder vs. Rockets

Line Movements

The fifth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have forced Game 7 against the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets, and James Harden’s crew will head into this series finale as five and a half -point favorites, despite their lack of ability to assert themselves as the superior unit over the course of the first six games.

The ‘over-under’ for this series has split straight down the middle (3-3), similar to how just about everything else has gone so far for Houston and Oklahoma City in this series. Game 7’s total opened at OU 223.5 points, but that number has taken a steep drop all the way down to OU 219 as the public continues to back the ‘under’ which is consistent with most win-or-go-home NBA contests.

• Spread: Houston -5
• Money-Line: Houston -240, Oklahoma City +200
• Total: 219
• Updated Series Price: Houston -240, Oklahoma City +200

Game 6 Recap

Game 6 of this Western Conference playoff series had the Thunder’s name written all over it as everything seemed to come together for Billy Donovan’s team offensively, and they played tremendous perimeter defense for a whole 48 minutes, holding the Rockets to 15 of 44 from downtown.

Chris Paul put his team of young guys on his back down the stretch on Monday like he always does, but he had a little extra something for his former teammate in Game 6 as he went for 22 points in the second half, burying his old squad in crunch time towards the end of their last game.

The last NBA Playoff Game 7 to go ‘over’ its OU total was between the Clippers and Warriors back in 2014. Let’s see if this center-less Rockets and CP3’s Thunder can be the first group of squads to send a Game 7 over the total in the last five years.

Game 6 Betting Results

While side wagers were tight until the final minutes in Game 6, bettors backing the 'under' were smoking cigars early and often as neither team could connect from distance and possession basketball ran the clock early and often in the fourth quarter.

Outcome: Thunder 104 Rockets 100

• Game: Thunder Win, Thunder Cover (+5.5), Under 226
• First Quarter: Rockets Win (25-24), Thunder Cover (+1.5), Under 57.5
• First-Half: Rockets (51-48), Rockets Cover (-2.5), Under 115.5
• Second-Half: Thunder Win (56-49), Thunder Cover (+3), Under 111.5

Thunder vs. Rockets
How to Handicap Game 7

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Thunder Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Overall: 47-31 SU, 47-31 ATS, 38-39-1 O/U
• Bubble: 7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U

What was intended to be a re-building year for Oklahoma City, has resulted in its team playing in a Game 7 against a potential title contender in Houston.

The key to the Thunder’s success this season has been their success in “clutch” moments, as they rank 1st in the NBA this season in contests that have less than a 10-point differential with less than two minutes left in them (30-15).

This can mainly be attributed to CP3 being the league leader in clutch points so far this season (171), as he takes virtually every shot for Donovan’s crew at the end of games.

If Game 7 is close heading into the final minutes the Rockets may find themselves in trouble, but there is no guarantee that will be the case if Houston shoots the three-ball like it did in Game 5

Rockets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Overall: 47-31 SU, 36-41-1 ATS, 32-45-1 O/U
• Bubble: 7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U

The three-point ball definitely wasn’t cooking for Chef Harden on Monday night as he shot 27.3% from downtown in Houston’s 114-104 Game 6 loss.

We all know Mike D’Antnoi’s team doesn’t stand a chance against virtually anybody when the Beard isn’t feeling it, because he is putting up 20+ shots per game whether he’s hot or not, and that is a lot of volume to be eaten up by a player who isn’t seeing the rim well from deep at any given time.

To make things worse on Monday night, Eric Gordon and Jeff Green were brutal from 3-point land in Game 6 as well (3PT – 2 for 11), who have provided much needed assistance from deep during these playoffs when Harden is resting up or trying to find his offensive rhythm.

The good news is for the Rockets is that they just put on their worst performance of this series so far, and still had a chance to tie up or even win the game in the closing minutes of the contest. No need to worry about the Rockets here.

They just need to pray to the basketball gods for a better shooting night on Wednesday.

Key Injuries

Oklahoma City

• SG Deonte Burton: Illness - Game Time Decision

Houston

• SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Game Time Decision

Nothing crazy on the injury report heading into Game 7 as The Rockets finally got Westbrook for Game 5, officially clearing the list of any names who’s absence could potentially be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of this final matchup between these teams.

Game 7 Best Picks

Going into this series, I thought the Rockets were one of the only teams that posed a legitimate threat to Lakers and Clippers for the Western Conference crown, and I still believe that. I do not necessarily feel the same way about the Thunder as I think they have already overachieved their goal for the season by making it this far in a series with the Rockets.

Give me the Rockets -5.5 here as Houston has likely been playing with its food for most of this matchup and will crank up the heat in the series finale on Wednesday night.

Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Thunder 101