Bucks vs. Heat Predictions, Odds

  • December 29, 2020
  • By Michael Crosson
  • VegasInsider.com

Tuesday Night Hoops on TNT is back with an Eastern Conference Playoff rematch between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat, and VI has you covered with a full slate of picks and previews to help handicap the action.

Betting Resources

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Betting Odds - Bucks vs. Heat

Subject to Change

Line Movements

  • Spread: Milwaukee -4.5
  • Money-Line: Milwaukee -190 Miami +170
  • Total: 222.5

After holding the best record in the Eastern Conference last regular season (56-17), the Bucks have sputtered out of the gate to start the year (1-2), but still find themselves as a 4.5-point road favorite on Tuesday night against the team that eliminated them from last year’s playoffs in just five games.

How to Handicap Bucks vs. Heat

Current Form

The Heat lost their season opener to the Magic, which is a team that has been notorious for giving Miami trouble in recent years (1-2 ATS last season).


Miami rallied back with a convincing win on Christmas Day, led by Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic who combined for 40 points to propel the Heat past the Pelicans, 111-98 to gain their first win and cover of the season.

Milwaukee had a head-scratching loss in its most recent outing as Giannis Antetokounmpo and company suffered a 20-point loss to the New York Knicks. Jrue Holiday scored just 8 points in the contest on 40% from the field while missing all four of 3-point attempts.

Bucks vs. Heat Head-to-Head

Miami and Milwaukee met up during last year’s post-season in Orlando, which was a series that the Bucks were heavily favored to advance from. Quite the contrary situation occurred though, as Bam Adebayo smothered Giannis defensively while Dragic and Jimmy Butler headed a Heat offense that cruised past the top seed in the East in just five games.

During last year’s regular season, the Heat went 2-1 SU against the Bucks, and one of those victories came without Butler (131-126), which is expected to be the case again on Tuesday night.

Eastern Conference Semifinals at NBA Bubble from Orlando

(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (5) Miami Heat (Heat wins series 4-1)
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Miami (+5, ML +180) at Milwaukee 115-104 Underdog Under (223.5)
2 Miami (+5.5, ML +200) at Milwaukee 116-114 Underdog Over (223.5)
3 Milwaukee at Miami (+5) 115-100 Underdog Under (222.5)
4 Milwaukee (-2) at Miami 118-115 Favorite Over (220)
5 Miami (-5.5) at Milwaukee 103-94 Favorite Under (220)

Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020)

  • Overall: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Milwaukee has filled the void Eric Bledsoe left in the starting lineup with a much more talented guard in Holiday, but clearly the pieces have not quite meshed together yet as the Bucks looked completely out of sorts during their disastrous loss the Knicks on Sunday.

The Bucks lost to the Celtics on opening night in heartbreaking fashion, but it was truly an all-around great basketball game from both teams and Milwaukee has nothing to be ashamed of as a team regarding that contest except a poorly timed missed free-throw from Antetokounmpo.

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020)

  • Overall: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Miami will likely be without Butler in this contest, but the Heat were able to nab a victory in the contest he didn’t participate in last season, so there is no reason why Miami cannot get it done again on Tuesday night.

In that game, Dragic really stepped it up for the Heat as the veteran came off the bench and tallied 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists on 43.8% shooting during the Miami victory.

If Butler is unable to go, I expect Miami to really lean on Dragic and Tyler Herro to carry the bulk of its offense for the duration of this contest, considering Adebayo will likely have his hands full with Antetokounmpo for the majority of this game.

The Bucks have gone 0-2 as road favorites this season, which includes Sunday's embarrassing loss at the New York Knicks. (AP)

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks

  • SF Torrey Craig: Nose - Out

Miami Heat

  • SF Jimmy Butler: Ankle - Doubtful
  • SG Gabe Vincent: Knee - Probable

Player Prop Best Bet

Goran Dragic – Over 28.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-115)

The Heat will likely be missing a crucial part of their offense with their top scorer in Butler listed as doubtful for the contest.

Due to his absence, I expect Dragic to absorb a healthy uptick in minutes and usage during Miami’s tilt with the Bucks, resulting in the veteran cruising to an easy total stats ‘over’ in this primetime matchup.

Bucks-Heat Predictions

Even if Butler is unable to play on Tuesday night, I still believe Miami serves as a very challenging matchup for the Bucks.

Milwaukee’s newly acquired pieces just don’t appear to be coming together well enough at this point in time to warrant backing them to beat any team by five points or more, let alone a team that participated in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

Miami proved to me last year how great they are capable of being as a unit, even when Butler does not suit up for them. I’ll back the Heat to keep the game extremely close against the Bucks, or maybe even win.

Score Prediction: Heat 111, Bucks 109
Best Bet: Heat +4.5