Warriors vs. Nuggets Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Jan. 12, 2021

By Michael Crosson

VegasInsider.com

Western Conference NBA action on TNT continues Thursday night with another great nightcap between the Warriors and the Nuggets. So, VI has you covered with another slate of Best Bets and Game Previews to help handicap all the action.

Warriors vs. Nuggets Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
Date: Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | Bet Now in Colorado

Betting Odds - Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets

Line Movements

Subject to Change

Spread: Nuggets -5.5
Money-Line: Denver -200, Golden State +175
Total: 228.5

The Nuggets come into this game as 5.5-point favorites, already marking the 9th time this that Golden State has opened as an ‘underdog’ in a matchup this season.

While the total for this contest sits at 228.5, which is currently the highest ‘over-under’ on Thursday night’s NBA board.

The Warriors travel to Denver to face the Nuggets following a 4-3 homestand. (AP)

Warriors vs. Nuggets Current Form-Last Game

After upsetting the Clippers and reaching last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets stumbled out of the gate to a 1-4 SU start to this season but have since then bounced back by winning four of their last six contests.

Denver is coming off a 122-116 loss to the Nets in its most recent affair, as Kevin Durant erupted for 34 points (67% FG) during Kyrie Irving’s absence.

Similarly, the Warriors got off to a rough start to this season at 2-3, but have since then managed to bounce back with wins in four of their last six games.

Golden State led for the majority of its most recent contest against Indiana, but some late game heroics from Aaron Holiday (4Q – 9 points, 6 assists) and a horrific all-around 4th quarter for the Warriors (7-27 FG, 4 TO) resulted in the Pacers cruising to an easy come-from-behind victory.

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head

Mar. 3, 2020 - Warriors 116 at Nuggets 100, G.S. +16, Under 218.5
Jan. 16, 2020 - Nuggets 134 at Warriors 131 (OT), G.S. +3.5, Over 213
Apr. 2, 2019 - Warriors 116 vs. Nuggets 102, G.S. -8.5, Under 220

The Nuggets and Warriors split a pair of games during last year’s regular season and interestingly enough, Denver’s victory came without Jamal Murray and Golden State’s victory came without Stephen Curry.

Will Barton emphatically stood in for Murray during the first matchup between these teams last season, racking up 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists (11-20 FG, 7-10 3P) in the Nuggets’ overtime victory.

While in the second meeting between these teams, Andrew Wiggins and Eric Paschall teamed up to fill Curry’s void – tallying 22 points apiece on a combined 17-29 from the field during Golden State’s win.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Golden State Warriors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U

It very rarely shows up on the stat sheet, but Draymond Green is the heartbeat of this Warriors team and they appear to be playing an entirely different brand of basketball ever since he returned to the lineup and started logging significant minutes.

Golden State is just 2-2 in the games that Draymond has logged 29+ minutes in so far this year, but those losses came against the Clippers and Pacers, which were surprisingly the Warriors’ first two losses by 10 points or less on the season.

The Warriors likely need to get the full trio of Curry, Green, and Klay Thompson all back healthy before they seriously start to set their sights on post-season contention, but Draymond’s addition undeniably makes them more fun to watch and slightly more competitive down the stretch of games.

Denver Nuggets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS, 9-2 O/U
Home: 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Following back-to-back wins over the Knicks and Sixers, the Nuggets got back to .500 for the first time this season since starting 0-0, but a loss to the Nets this past Tuesday put them right back where they were before.

After testing positive for COVID-19, Michael Porter Jr. has now missed seven consecutive games and is slated to sit out at least one more when the Warriors come to town on Thursday night.

The ‘over’ has cashed in five out of the seven games that Porter Jr. has missed this season.

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors

PF Eric Paschall: Quaratine - Questionable

Denver Nuggets

PG Gary Harris: Personal - Questionable
SF Michael Porter, Jr.: Quarantine - Out

Denver could potentially be without two of its starters for this contest as Porter Jr. will remain absent due to COVID-19 protocols, and Harris is listed as questionable for personal reasons. If both are unable to go, Barton and Monte Morris should continue to see a heavier workload until they return.

Player Prop Best Bet

Nikola Jokic – Over 8.5 assists (-110)

The Nuggets may be off to a slow start to the new season but the same cannot be said about their superstar center, Nikola Jokic, who is currently averaging 24.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on 57.6% from the field and 41.2% from deep on the year.

Golden State plays at the third fastest pace in the NBA (104.6) and ranks 20th in the league in defensive rating (110.2).

Jokic has made his teammates look good all season – tallying 9+ assists in all but two games so far this year. Back him to record his ninth 9-assist game of the season against the Warriors on Thursday night.