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Trail Blazers vs. Heat Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Mar. 24, 2021
by Michael Crosson
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

Non-conference NBA action will take center-stage on Thursday night with the Heat set to host the Trail Blazers in primetime on TNT. So, VI is getting you ready with a variety of betting resources to help handicap all the top matchups on the evening’s slate.

Trail Blazers vs. Heat Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Trail Blazers vs. Heat

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Heat -3
  • Money-Line: Miami -150, Portland +130
  • Total: 218.5

The Heat head into Thursday’s matchup as a 2.5-point favorite over the visiting Trail Blazers – giving Portland the ‘underdog tag’ for the third time in the last seven days.

While the total for this contest currently sits at OU 217.5, which is just the third time this season that the ‘over-under’ for a matchup containing Portland has been set below 220.


The Heat look to snap a three-game home losing streak as they welcome in the Blazers on Thursday. (AP)

Trail Blazers vs. Heat Current Form-Last Game

Miami comes into Thursday’s contest riding a painful four-game losing streak – which includes losses to the Grizzlies, Pacers (2), and Suns across that stretch.

The Heat’s most recent defeat came at the hands of the Suns this past Tuesday, as five different Phoenix players registered double-digit scoring on the way to a 10-point victory for Devin Booker and company.

On the other side of things, the Trail Blazers come into this contest as losers in back-to-back matchups as well – with Portland dropping games against the Nets and Mavericks in their latest two affairs.

Trail Blazers vs. Heat Head-to-Head

  • Feb. 9, 2020 - Blazers 115 vs. Heat 109, Portland -5, Under 226
  • Jan. 5, 2020 - Heat 122 vs. Blazers 111, Miami -5, Over 215.5

Miami and Portland split a pair of matchups during last year’s regular season, with both of those contests occurring prior to the NBA’s Covid-19 shutdown.

The first of those matchups resulted in a victory for the Heat, as Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo combined for 49 points on 74% from the field in an 11-point win for Miami.

Unfortunately for the Heat though, Damian Lillard returned with vengeance for Portland’s second meeting with Miami and went off for 33 points on 11-23 from the field, as the Trail Blazers escaped with their first victory over the Heat since March 2018.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Portland Trail Blazers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 25-18 SU, 21-22 ATS, 23-20 OU
  • Road: 11-9 SU, 12-8 ATS, 11-9 OU

Despite getting handed back-to-back losses in their previous two matchups, the Blazers have still posted a solid record in the month of March – currently sitting at 7-4 SU, with Portland’s only losses across that span coming in meetings with Dallas, Brooklyn, Phoenix, and Minnesota.

High-scoring affairs have been the common trend in Blazers games so far this year, with the ‘over’ cashing at a 53.5% clip in matchups containing Portland. Things have swung in the opposite direction in the Blazers recent affairs though, with the total staying ‘under’ in three of their last four contests.

The books appear to be adjusting to their totals accordingly too, considering the ‘over-under’ set for Thursday’s contest is the lowest total set for a matchup containing the Blazers since they squared off with the Knicks on February 6th (U 215).

Miami Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 22-22 SU, 18-25-1 ATS, 19-25 OU
  • Home: 12-11 SU, 8-14-1 ATS, 10-13 OU

Although Miami has posted a 5-5 SU record since the start of March, the Heat’s record for this month doesn’t quite indicate how poorly Erik Spoelstra’s team has been playing lately – considering Miami’s only victories since the calendar-turn have come in matchups against the Cavaliers, Magic (2), Bulls, and Pelicans.

The total has stayed under in three of the last four contests containing the Heat, which is indicative of the game-pace Miami has consistently dictated this season – ranking 25th across the league in over-percentage at 43.2% so far.

Betting an ‘under’ against a low total can be perplexing in hindsight sometimes, but if the number set for Thursday’s contest doesn’t scare you, my advice would be to slam it – considering the ‘over’ is 4-8 in the last 12 matchups containing Miami with a total set below 218.

Key Injuries

Portland Trail Blazers

  • SG Anfernee Simons: Quarantine - Questionable
  • SF Nassir Little: Quarantine - Questionable

Miami Heat

  • PG Goran Dragic: Back - Questionable

Player Prop Best Bet

C.J. McCollum – Over 18.5 Points (-112)

After missing nearly two months with a foot injury, C.J. McCollum has been easing his way back into the flow of Portland’s offense for the last week or so.

During the Trail Blazers most recent outing though, McCollum logged over 28 minutes for the first time since returning from his extended absence, while putting up 19 field goal attempts in the process.

Prior to his injury, McCollum scored 22 or more points in 10 of the 13 matchups that he was present for this season. I’ll back McCollum to bounce back with a significantly more efficient performance against the Heat here.

Trail Blazers vs. Heat Prediction

The Heat head into Thursday’s contest riding a four-game losing streak, with Miami’s most recent victory coming in a matchup with Cleveland over a week ago. While the Blazers have won three of their last five games, with Portland’s only losses during that timeframe coming at the hands of worthy opponents in the Mavericks and Nets.

I’ll take Portland with the points here, especially if Miami makes any significant moves prior to the trade-deadline that could potentially leave them short-handed in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Trail Blazers 111, Heat 104
Best Bet: Portland +2.5

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