Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 21, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert

The NBA’s opening week continues Thursday night pitting two of the league’s top scorers against each other in Trae Young and Luka Doncic. The Hawks host the Mavs 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.

Score Prediction

Mavericks 120, Hawks 116

Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions

The Hawks come off a perfect preseason as they look to build on last year’s special season. Trae Young leads the same core group who upset the Sixers last season, with an increased role forCam Reddish on the wing.

Both Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins will be relied upon heavily in this matchup against a weaker Dallas backcourt and vulnerable forwards. It’s no secret the Hawks will have Young fuel the offense but they go up against a fresh Mavs team who saw their top three players sit out the last of the preseason.

Dallas wins this game outright because Doncic comes fired out of a cannon. He, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. all sat out the Mavs final preseason game, all are expected to play.

Porzingis was a ghost in last year’s playoffs but stands to have a bounce-back season starting with his health. Young is amazing, but Doncic is generational. The latter can control the game on both sides, which is the reason why Dallas eventually wins the game.

Not much has changed with either team’s starting lineups, and most of this game comes down to their respective superstars. Doncic stands to get the better of Young, especially on the defensive side.

Questions surrounding the Mavs really start with how good Porzingis can be, even though his health was a big reason why he faded so fast. Hardaway, Jr. will provide offense on the wing, but the Mavs also rely on scoring depth.

Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke came alive in the preseason, which will help the Mavs bench keep a lead, or stay in the game. The Hawks have Kevin Huerter and Bogdanovic to help Young on the outside, but they don’t have the volume of three-point shooters to keep up with Dallas in a track meet. It may simply be too much on Young to carry a heavier load than asked by Doncic.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Odds

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Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change

  • Mavericks +120
  • Hawks -140
  • Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
  • Hawks -2.5 (-110)
  • Over 224.5 (-110)
  • Under 224.5 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Southwest vs. Southeast
  • Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
  • Venue: State Farm Arena
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • TV-Time: TNT - 7:30 p.m. ET

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Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

2020-21 Stats

  • SU: 45-34
  • ATS: 38-41
  • O/U: 37-42

Doncic is a monster. It’s that simple. The biggest question is how to turn his amazing regular season performances into deeper playoff runs. Doncic dropped nearly 28 points per- game last year, with over 8 boards and assists a piece. The addition of Jason Kidd as head coach looks to be having an immediate impact on players, so Dallas starts off in the right direction.

It’s not easy to go into Atlanta and hold off the Hawks, but Doncic and his backups will have an easier time controlling the tempo. Porzingis did average just over 20 points per-game and under 9 rebounds a night, something to build on with him starting the season healthy.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

2020-21 Stats

  • SU: 51-39
  • ATS: 50-40
  • O/U: 39-49-2

As sharp as Young was last year, the Hawks still rolled out four other guys who were good for at least 15 points a game. The biggest piece outside of Young come Thursday night will be Collins. If he can penetrate the Mavs frontcourt and take advantage of second-chance opportunities, Dallas will have to adjust. Clint Capela’s 14.3 RPG led the league last year, and the Hawks will need it against the Mavs outside shooting.

He also took 11 shots per-game last year, something that might be an advantage to the Hawks putting Porzingis in a difficult defensive matchup. Two major absences from Thursday night’s opener could be Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari.

Both are huge in helping the Hawks second unit stay in games, but can each provide valuable starter minutes depending on circumstance. Not having either will be a problem for Atlanta’s depth.

The favorite has covered the spread in three of the last four games played between the Hawks and the Mavericks. (AP)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Head-to-Head

The preseason is a little tough of a measurement stick on how great a team is playing, but injuries certainly hold relevance. The Mavs did win the two-game series between the teams last year, with a 122-116 victory in Atlanta.

They played again the following week with Dallas winning at home. Including the playoffs, the Hawks did finish 10 games above .500 ATS, while the Mavs were 2 games below that mark vs. the spread.

Key Players to Watch

2020-21 Stats

  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (27.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 8.6 apg)
  • DAL: Tim Hardaway, Jr. - SF (16.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg)
  • ATL: Trae Young - PG (25.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 9.4 apg)
  • ATL: Bogdan Bogdanovic - SG (16.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.3 apg)


  • ATL: Onyeka Okongwu - PF (Out)
  • ATL: Jalen Johnson - SF (DTD)
  • ATL: Lou Williams - SG (DTD)
  • ATL: Danilo Gallinari - PF (DTD)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Conclusion

Dallas has the firepower, but the Hawks snuck up on a lot of teams last year. Home court advantage may not hold true for the Hawks but don’t expect them to roll over either. The total is 225.5 which is 3.5 points more than the average scored each game last year at State Farm Arena.

Depth concerns are the bigger issue for the Hawks, especially if either Williams or Gallinari can’t go. The Mavs saw their backup backcourt flourish in the preseason. In games like these with two superstars on equal planes, we look for secondary or tertiary matchups with an edge. The Mavs bench should extend any lead established by their starters. Mavs take it outright.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends

  • The favorite has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings.
  • Dallas has won four of its last five games when facing Atlanta.
  • The road team has covered the spread in three of the last five meetings.
  • The home team has won four of the last five meetings.