Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Nov. 10, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Heat’s five game road trip continues after stumbling against the Nugget on Monday night. The Lakers cruise into Wednesday night’s game fresh off another Carmelo Anthony-led victory, all without LeBron James. The two teams tip off Wednesday night at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN at the Staples Center.

Score Prediction

Heat 115, Lakers 110

Best Bets

Miami -4.5

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Predictions

Who needs LeBron when you have a Melo? The 37-year-old is coming off a monster performance against Charlotte – 29 points off 7 3-pointers. James missed another game with an abdominal injury, but the team did see Anthony Davis play through a thumb injury. The OT win stopped a two—game skid, with Russell Westbrook taking over whenever Anthony allowed. It’s going to be difficult against a tough Heat defense to ask Anthony to sustain these recent performances.

Miami also scores a lot of points, so the Lakers will miss James even more if Melo isn’t scoring. The good news for the Lakers remains Davis is healthy enough to play – and dominate. Russ, AD, and Melo are good enough to compete, but not beat one of the best teams in the league.

Tempers flared at the end of Miami’s most recent game against the Nuggets, but it’s rear-view material as the Heat travel to LA. The Heat are still a top-10 offense despite some scoring struggles, but they remain the 2nd best overall defense in the NBA. They grind teams to a halt with one of the slowest pacing – 28th overall in the league – but they still score over 110 PPG. This level of efficiency is going to be too much for LA to match, even at the Staples Center.

Miami’s loss to Denver wasn’t pretty, as multiple players struggled on the floor. Most notably was Kyle Lowry who literally couldn’t hit a single shot. Outside of Butler’s 31 points, it wasn’t much offensively. Bam Adebayo presents a tough matchup for the Lakers frontcourt, who are going to have to rely too much on Melo.

Both superstars – Jimmy Butler and Davis – are going to get to 30 points, but the Heat’s cast will out duel Westbrook and Davis. This will be a game decided by back-end starters – like the defensive pressure from PJ Tucker - and depth off the bench.

It’s been a difficult 3-game stretch for the Heat, but they still are seeing improved offensive productivity around Butler. Miami is getting solid shooting from Tyler Herro, enough to counter whatever the Lakers bench brings. Duncan Robinson is certainly struggling from the floor but is always one game away from a breakout performance from three.

Even Adebayo has turned into a legit scoring threat around the rim. Miami is going to maximize every second of the game clock, but also make LA work for their buckets.

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Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Resources

Matchup: Southeast vs. Pacific
Date: Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Venue: STAPLES Center
Location: Los Angeles, California
TV-Time: ESPN - 10:00 p.m. ET

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 7-3
ATS: 7-3
O/U: 5-5

Butler is shooting 53% from the floor and averaging 25.3 PPG, he’s adding a consistent 6 RPG and 5.5 APG. Herro is not far off from Butler, averaging 20.3 PPG off 45.8 percent shooting.

He’s also averaging 5.4 RPG and 4 APG. Adebayo controls the paint averaging a healthy 18.3 PPG and 11.8 RPG. He’s shooting 50% from the field. Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry also average double figures, each at 10 PPG.

Los Angeles Lakers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 6-5
ATS: 3-8
O/U: 6-5

James leads the Lakers with 24.8 PPG, also averaging 7 APG and 5.5 RPG. That productivity is out Wednesday night, as it’s expected to fall on the shoulders of Davis and Westbrook. AD is just under 24 PPG and just over 11 RPG. He’s shooting 50% from the floor. Westbrook is dropping just under 19 PPG, and just under 9 RPG and APG. Melo has been the big surprise – filling the void left with James’ absence. For the season Melo is averaging 17.6 PPG.

The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning at home the game prior. (AP)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Head-to-Head

The first matchup between these two teams will be Wednesday night in LA. The Heat will take on the Lakers Wednesday then the Clippers on Thursday night.

Key Players to Watch

MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (25.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 5.5 apg)
MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (18.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg)
LAL: Anthony Davis - PF (23.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg)
LAL: Russell Westbrook - PG (18.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 8.5 apg)

Injuries

MIA: Markieff Morris - OF (Out)
MIA: Max Strus - SG (Out)
LAL: Talen Horton Tucker - SG (Out)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Conclusion

The Heat may have dropped two of three, but they are still covering spreads. Miami is 7-3 ATS on the season while the Lakers are only 3-8 ATS. Not having James hurts LA’s chances of keeping up with the Heat.

Miami makes teams work for possessions and having a third superstar in James on the floor puts the pressure back on Miami’s defense. We haven’t seen Miami’s defense waiver as it’s been their offense that’s come up short. The Lakers are top- heavy and won’t have enough depth to compete.

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Trends

Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 14 games after a home win.
Los Angeles has lost eight straight games when playing as the underdog after going into overtime the game prior.
Los Angeles has gone UNDER the point total in 10 of its last 11 home games when facing Miami.