Last Updated Nov 15, 2021, 10:00 AM

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 15, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

Nationally televised NBA coverage will conclude on Monday night with a heavyweight Western Conference bout between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

Score Prediction

Mavericks 109, Nuggets 102

Best Bets

Mavericks -4

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After finishing fifth in the West with a record of 42-30 last year, the Mavericks stumbled out to a slightly disappointing start to the new season, highlighted by Luka Doncic and company kicking things off with an underwhelming 4-3 record – with Dallas’ only victories across that window coming against relatively subpar opponents in the Raptors, Rockets, Spurs, and Kings.

Since their lackluster start though, Dallas has quickly turned things around, considering the Mavericks head into Monday’s contest following wins in four of their last five games – with the Mavs’ only loss across that span coming in a road matchup against Chicago (L, 107-117).

On the other hand, Denver jumped out to a surprisingly excellent start to the year, as the Nuggets posted a pair of commanding victories over the Suns and Spurs in their first two matchups of the new season (+18).

The Nuggets fell into a bit of a slump immediately following their 2-0 start though, considering Denver dropped four of the next six games – bumping them down to 4-4 on the season.

Denver played exceptionally well across its latest homestand though, considering the Nuggets enter Monday’s contest riding a five-game winning streak – with the most recent of those victories coming against Portland on Sunday night.

I’ll lay the points with Dallas here, as Denver has proven far too inconsistent to warrant trusting on the second half of a back-to-back without Jamal Murray on the floor – especially in matchups against high- quality opponents like the Mavericks.

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Northwest vs. Southwest
  • Date: Monday, November 15, 2021
  • Venue: American Airlines Arena
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • TV-Time: NBATV - 8:00 p.m. ET

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-4
  • ATS: 7-6
  • O/U: 3-10

Immediately following Murray’s season-ending knee injury last year, expectations regarding the Nuggets quickly plummeted, as despite earning the third-seed, Denver (-120) ventured into its first-round playoff series narrowly favored over the sixth-seeded Blazers (+100).

Once Murray and Michael Porter Jr. return to full strength, the Nuggets should comfortably rank alongside all the top contenders in the conference – but until Denver reaches that point, I’d steer clear of siding with Denver, especially when playing on the second half of a back-to-back.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-4
  • ATS: 4-8
  • O/U: 3-8-1

After getting eliminated in the first round of last year’s playoffs, Dallas was gifted with an immediate opportunity to remind the basketball world of the drastic improvement they made throughout last season – as the Mavericks ventured to Atlanta to face Trae Young and the Hawks in their opening matchup.

Dallas completely missed the boat on that opportunity though, considering the Mavericks scored just 87 points on 33% FG during their blowout loss to Atlanta on opening night (L, 113-87) – highlighted by Doncic scoring just 18 PTS on 6-of-17 shooting throughout the event.

Luka’s rough start extended slightly beyond his opening performance, as the Dallas superstar failed to eclipse 30 PTS in each of the Mavs’ first six games (22.5 PPG) – but shots always start falling for Doncic eventually, considering he’s now scored 30+ PTS in three of his last six (27.7 PPG).

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

Dallas won two-of-three regular-season matchups against the Nuggets last year, with both the Mavericks’ victories during that time frame surprisingly coming on the road in Denver.

The Nuggets’ lone victory over Dallas last season also came on the road – but Denver played that matchup with Murray in the lineup, who is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered last April.

The latest meeting between these teams took place just a few weeks ago though, which resulted in a commanding home win for the Nuggets (106-75).

Key Players to Watch

  • DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (25.3 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 6.3 apg)
  • DEN: Monte Morris - PG (10.6 ppg, 3.8 apg)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (25.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 7.7 apg)
  • DAL: Tim Hardaway, Jr. - SF (14.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg)

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After winning five straight home games, the Nuggets will head to Dallas as four-point road underdogs against the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center – marking Denver’s heftiest underdog tag since matching up with the Jazz on October 26th (UTA -7.5).

I’ll lay the points with Dallas here, as the Mavs’ boast an impressive 5-1 record at home this season – while Denver sits at just 2-3 in road matchups.

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • Dallas has seen the favorite win 14 straight games.
  • Denver has failed to cover the spread in six straight games when playing the second game of a back-to-back.
  • Denver has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine games.
  • Tim Hardaway, Jr. has scored 16 points or more in five of his last seven games.

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