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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
12 minute read

The Western Conference Finals will resume on Thursday night with what could potentially be the fifth and final matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 116, Mavericks 103

Best Bets

Warriors -7 (-110) at BetMGM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Game 5 riding a relatively pedestrian 46-29 SU and 34-38-3 ATS stretch, with half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a frustrating 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have surrendered just 104.5 DPPG across their latest 45-20 SU and 41-24 ATS stretch, which includes a nearly identical average of 104.8 DPPG in 17 playoff matchups.

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Warriors are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home since the start of the playoffs, while averaging 118 OPPG on 50% FG and 41% 3FG across those eight contests, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Mavs’ squad that’s 3-6 SU on the road this postseason (106 OPPG, 45% FG).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 61-38
  • ATS: 56-42-1
  • O/U: 38-60-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back half of the season, considering the Mavericks enter Thursday’s contest riding an impressive 45-20 SU stretch, despite averaging just 109 OPPG during that timeframe.

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-33
  • ATS: 49-44-4
  • O/U: 44-51-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State immediately bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to start this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 5 riding a relatively bumpy 46-29 SU and 34-38-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.4 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 114.5 OPPG across their 47 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury.

The Mavericks are 5-15 SU in their last 20 road games against Golden State. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at a lofty average of 255 PPG. Dallas also went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 194.5 PPG, while the other two cruised over at 228.5 PPG.

However, Game 1 of this series belonged to Golden State from start to finish, as the Warriors ran away with a 25-point victory in Wednesday’s series-opener, which stayed comfortably under the total thanks to the Mavs’ scoring just 87 PTS on 36% FG and 23% 3FG (112-87, U 216).

Dallas played much better in Game 2 though, considering the Mavs’ scored 117 PTS on 47% FG and 47% 3FG in Friday’s contest, and even entered the halftime break with a 14-point lead; but it still wasn’t enough to fend off a Warriors squad that tallied 127 PTS on 56% FG and 50% 3FG throughout the affair (126-117, O 216).

The Mavericks also played decent at home in Game 3, considering the score between these squads was tied across the first, second, and fourth quarters of action (79-79); however, Dallas struggled in the third and Golden State quickly built a nine-point lead, which ultimately pushed the Warriors over the edge in Sunday’s affair (109-100, U 216).

Dallas bounced back on the verge of elimination in Game 4 though, as the Mavericks erupted for 119 PTS on 50% FG and 47% 3FG on the way to a double-digit victory this past Tuesday (119-109, O 216).

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Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • GSW: Jordan Poole - SG (18.5 PPG, 3.4 REB, 4 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After cutting the deficit to 3-1 with a tough home victory in Game 4 this past Tuesday (W, 119-109), the Mavericks hit the road for Thursday’s fifth matchup as seven-point underdogs against the Warriors at Chase Center, which is roughly the same number Golden State was favored by in Game 1 (GSW -7.5).

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Mavericks are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS on the road since the start of the playoffs, while averaging just 106 OPPG on 45% FG and 41% 3FG across those nine contests, setting the stage for an unfavorable matchup against a Warriors squad that’s 8-0 SU at home this postseason (118 OPPG, 50% FG).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Mavericks' games.
  • The Mavericks are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 matchups against Golden State.
  • The Warriors are 10-0 SU in their last ten home games.
  • The Mavericks are 5-15 SU in their last 20 road games against Golden State.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the last 20 matchups between Golden State and Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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