Study favors Eagles in playoffs

Harry Sadoun Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

With some teams gearing up for a final push towards the Lombardi trophy, others left licking their wounds from not reaching the playoffs, and some franchises being left in coaching purgatory, we decided to look into which teams in this year's playoffs have the highest chances of winning the Super Bowl, using historical data from the past ten seasons. 

The past ten winners:

• 2021- Los Angeles Rams
• 2020 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 2019 - Kansas City Chiefs
• 2018 - New England Patriots
• 2017 - Philadelphia Eagles
• 2016 - New England Patriots
• 2015 - Denver Broncos
• 2014 - New England Patriots
• 2013 - Seattle Seahawks
• 2012 - Baltimore Ravens 

We looked at a few different metrics on these teams, such as the average age of the winning team, how many players the teams had that were picked in the first round of the draft, and when the respective winners had their bye week in their winning year. 

The goal was to see if any of the teams heading into the playoffs this year would come close to the winning formula as demonstrated by previous winners. 

This season’s playoff is already kicking off this weekend with the Wild-Card Round.

Updated on 05/19/2024

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Here is a breakdown of the previous winners, their bye week, how many players on their roster were drafted in the 1st round and the average age of the team. 

From looking at the above table, we can see the following:

• The ideal bye-week is week 10 - that’s the average week of the previous ten winners 
• You should aim for 8 players in your team drafted in the first round - the average number of players on the winning team drafted in the first round 
• The average age should be 26.4336 on your team - the average age of the previous ten winners

Here’s a breakdown of the teams in this year’s playoffs: 

Only two teams in this season’s playoffs had a bye-week in week 10. Out of those teams, the Bengals and the Ravens, it was the Baltimore Ravens that came the closest to the age target (-0.1086). The Cincinnati Bengals only had six players from the first round, and the Ravens had a whopping 15. 

Three teams had the targeted eight players picked in the first round. Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Chargers. Out of those three teams, it was the Los Angeles Chargers that came the closest to the targeted average age, with only a -0.2698 difference, coming in at 26.1638 as the average age.  

When honing in on the average age, it’s the Cowboys that comes the closest with an average age of 26.4537 (+0.0201), followed by Philadelphia Eagles at 26.3820 (-0.0516) and Seattle Seahawks at 26.5098 (+0.0761). 

It’s probably worth noting that the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 seeds and thus, have a first round bye. Looking at the history, this has been a major advantage coming into the playoffs, with more than 50% of all previous Lombardi winners having the #1 seed, ever since the NFL changed their postseason system to rely on seedings.

Knowing all of this, the argument could maybe be made that the Lombardi is Philadelphia Eagles’ to lose. They have the important #1 seed, are close to the ideal age, only 0.05 off the mark and they have 10 players drafted in the first round. 

Maybe their week 7 bye-week could be an issue, or perhaps the first round bye compensates for that. We’ll know soon enough. 

This article is based on data from pro-football-reference.com.

Photo by Larry Bridges Jr

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Harry Sadoun

Harry Sadoun is a seasoned sports betting expert with a wealth of experience in the iGaming and sports betting industry. Over the past 5 years, he has established himself as a go-to source for insightful analysis and predictions at Vegasinsider. With a passion for sports, Harry specializes in football, basketball, tennis, rugby, and soccer, showcasing a diverse understanding of athletic competitions. Harry's unique approach to sports betting is rooted in a combination of statistical analysis, in-depth research, and a keen understanding of the dynamics that influence game outcomes. His expert opinions and strategic insights have made him a trusted voice in the industry, guiding both novice and seasoned bettors alike. With an unwavering commitment to delivering accurate and up-to-date information, Harry Sadoun continues to be a prominent figure in the world of sports betting, providing enthusiasts with the tools they need to make informed decisions. More from Harry Sadoun