Last Updated Sep 24, 2022, 12:44 AM
NFL Week 3 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 3 odds reveal a very tasty Sunday matchup featuring two of the best quarterbacks in league history. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
And with Trey Lance suffering a season-ending injury, it's welcome back Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G and the San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Denver Broncos in the Sunday nighter.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFL Week Three odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Buccaneers -3; Over/Under 45
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports toggled between the Bucs -3 opener and -2.5 early in the week, then went to -2 Tuesday afternoon and -1.5 Tuesday evening. On Thursday morning, the spread went to pick 'em for the first of multiple times, and it's now at Tampa -1.
The Buccaneers are landing 64% of early spread bets, while the Packers are drawing 62% of early spread dollars.
"This is a game where you have two top teams, and two very public teams in recent years,” Caesars Sports assistant trading director Adam Pullen said. “The Packers are always one of the more popular underdogs whenever they’re in this situation. I’d say the Packers action has been a little of both public and sharp money. Maybe the [Mike] Evans situation has people questioning things, but I don’t think wide receivers should move the line too much. The Bucs also have offensive line issues, but they still have [Tom] Brady out there slinging the ball.”
Caesars opened the total at 47.5 and rapidly slid to 41 by Monday afternoon, with injuries/Evans suspension playing a role. The number has rebounded slightly to 42. Splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: On Sunday, DraftKings pegged Tampa Bay a 3-point chalk in the NFL Week 3 odds market. The line steadily declined from there, going to Bucs -2.5 Monday, -2 Tuesday and -1.5 late this morning.
Contributing to that move: Tampa won't have wideout Mike Evans (suspension), and fellow wideouts Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) are questionable.
It's two-way point-spread action early at DK, with 59% of bets on the Buccaneers and 54% of cash on the road 'dog Packers.
Mirroring the spread, the total is now on the decline, after opening at 45 and initially touching 45 Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, it was down to 41, before rebounding to 42 Tuesday night and going to 41.5 late this morning.
The Over is seeing 68% of early bets, while 55% of early cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tampa Bay (2-0 SU and ATS) has just 39 points through its first two weeks. Yet the Bucs have twice won and covered. In Week 2 at New Orleans, Tampa topped the Saints 20-10 as 2.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, Green Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) rebounded nicely from its Week 1 loss at Minnesota. The Packers beat the Bears 27-10 as 10.5-point favorites in their home opener on Sunday night.
As soon as Bears-Packers kicked off Sunday night, the Packers-Bucs Week 2 game came off the board at The SuperBook. Packers-Bucs will go back up Monday morning. There was no movement on the spread in the hour or so that Packers-Bucs was up Sunday evening. But the total was on the move in the NFL Week 3 odds market..
"Sharp money came in on the Under, which knocked us down a full point to 44, before we took it off the board," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "That doesn't surprise me, with how the Bucs' defense has looked the first two weeks. Bucs -3 was pretty much the consensus spread [in the risk room], and we only took a couple sprinkles on the Bucs at that number, nothing significant."
Opening line: Broncos -2.5; Over/Under 44
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Denver opened -2.5 Sunday night at Caesars Sports, but by mid-Monday morning, the number was down to pick 'em. San Francisco moved to -1 favorites late Monday afternoon, then Tuesday morning went to -1.5, where the line has stuck since.
Point-spread ticket count is almost 4/1 and spread money 5/1 on the visiting Niners for Sunday Night Football.
The total opened at 44, initially backed up to 43, then rose to 46 Monday afternoon. However, the number receded to 45 late Tuesday morning, then this morning went 44.5 and 44. Splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 2 P.M ET WEDNESDAY: This line is one of the biggest movers of the week, with early bettors seemingly eager to get on the Jimmy G train. That's perhaps aided by the fact that Denver is banged up. Wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are questionable, and the Broncos have injuries on the offensive line and defense, as well.
The Broncos opened -2.5 Sunday night at DraftKings, and the line jumped the fence to 49ers -1 by Monday morning. By Monday night, the Niners were -1.5, where the line remains now. Early ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 5/1 on San Francisco for this week's Sunday night game in the Mile High City.
The total shot from 43 to 46 by Monday afternoon, then dialed down to 45 Tuesday. Ticket count is actually 3/1 on the Under, but money is 3/2 on the Over at DraftKings.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco's efforts to establish second-year QB Trey Lance as the starter came to an abrupt halt in Week 2. Lance broke his right ankle in the first quarter of Sunday's home game against Seattle. Still, Jimmy G and the Niners (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled to a 27-7 victory as 8.5-point faves.
Russell Wilson and Denver looked out of sorts for a second straight week, but the Broncos (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) at least mustered a win. Denver held off Houston 16-9 as 10-point home chalk.
"We were split on this game between Broncos -3 & -2.5, but ultimately landed on -2.5," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "Trey Lance got hurt, but the Niners look smart for keeping Jimmy G on the roster. The Broncos' offense hasn't looked great the first two weeks, so we felt opening the line less than 3 was the right move.
"We took a couple small bets on San Fran plus the points, but nothing of note. Sharp money did, however, come in on the Under in this game, which moved us down a full point to 43."
Opening line: Chiefs -6; Over/Under 49.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: K.C. opened -6.5 Sunday night at Caesars Sports, got to -7 briefly late Monday night, then rolled down to -5.5 by Wednesday evening. The Chiefs remain -5.5 now, though point-spread action is heavily tilted toward Kansas City. Ticket count is almost 9/1 and money 3/1 on the Chiefs.
The only reason the money count isn't more lopsided is because a Caesars customer put $55,000 on Indy +6.5. Caesars will still be big Colts fans come Sunday.
"This will definitely be one of our biggest decisions this week, if not the biggest,” Caesars assistant trading director Adam Pullen said. “The public has seen the Chiefs look good and the Colts look bad, so they’ve been all over the Chiefs here. But I don’t fault anyone for taking the Colts when it was at 7. Sharps will definitely take the touchdown on the home dog, especially one that was thought to be decent before the season. They’ve been taking 7 with several of these home 'dogs so far this season.”
The total tumbled from 49.5 to 47 by Monday morning, but rebounded to 49.5 within a few hours. The total peaked Tuesday at 50.5 and has been a stable 50.5 since Thursday morning. Splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Chiefs hit DraftKings' NFL Week 2 odds board as a 6-point favorite Sunday night and advanced to -6.5 within a few hours. K.C. then toggled a couple of times between -6.5 and -7, before setting at -6.5 Tuesday afternoon.
Early spread tickets and early spread dollars are all Chiefs, running more than 9/1 on both counts.
The total opened 49.5 and initially receded to 46.5 by mid-Monday morning. Since then, the number twice climbed as high as 50.5, where it sits now. That said, ticket count is dead even, and 68% of early dollars are on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) got much more of a challenge in Week 2 than Week 1, but still got the W on the field. The Chiefs, hosting the Los Angeles Chargers, hung on for a 27-24 Thursday night victory laying 4 points.
Indianapolis is out of the gate at a less-than-satisfying 0-1-1 SU/0-2 ATS. After settling for a Week 1 road tie with Houston, the Colts went to Jacksonville and were flat-out awful. Indy lost 24-0 as a 3-point road favorite.
Anyone prescient enough to bet the Chiefs-Colts look-ahead line last week could've had K.C. -3. When the game opened Sunday afternoon at The SuperBook, the line was double that and on the move.
"We took some sharp money right away on the Chiefs -6, which moved us to -6.5," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said Sunday night. "The Chiefs look like they haven't lost a step, and the Colts got shut out today, so taking Kansas City money at open isn't shocking. The total is down to 49, just based on the fact that the Colts' offense leaves something to be desired."
Degnon noted the total dipped despite taking some Over money. Later Sunday evening, the total returned to 49.5.
Opening line: Bills -4.5; Over/Under 51
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Buffalo hit Caesars Sports' NFL Week 3 odds board as a 4.5-point chalk and fell back to -4 Monday afternoon. However, in the wake of the 41-7 Monday night home rout of Tennessee, the Bills advanced to -5.5 Tuesday morning.
Buffalo got to -6 Wednesday afternoon and stabilized at -5.5 Thursday afternoon. Point-spread ticket count is approaching 5/1 and spread money almost 3/1 on the Bills.
Thanks to both teams' high-flying Week 2 efforts, the total shot from 50.5 to 54 by late Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning, it backed up to 52, then by lunchtime today returned to 54. Caesars currently has the total at 53. Splits aren't available today.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Late Sunday night, DraftKings opened Buffalo as a 4.5-point road chalk in the NFL Week 3 odds market, before the Bills' Week 2 Monday night game. Then Josh Allen and Co., laying 10 points at home, trashed Tennessee 41-7.
That sent the line straight to Bills -6 late Monday evening, before a modest backup to -5.5 early Tuesday. This afternoon, the Bills are back at -6, with early ticket count running 4/1 and early money 9/1 on the spread.
The total opened at 51.5, peaked at 54 Tuesday evening and is now at 53. Tickets and money are 3/1-plus on the Over.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami pulled off a stunner of a Week 2 victory to move to 2-0 SU and ATS. Trailing 35-14 entering the fourth quarter at Baltimore, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins put up three straight touchdowns to tie it at 35. The Ravens followed with a field goal to take a 38-35 lead with 2:18 left.
But Tagovailoa then led another TD drive to give Miami a shocking 42-38 win as 3.5-point underdogs. Tagovailoa finished with a whopping six TD throws – four in the fourth quarter – completing 36 of 50 passes for 469 yards, while overcoming two INTs.
Buffalo (1-0 SU and ATS) looked sharp in Week 1, at least in the second half, against the host Los Angeles Rams. But the Bills still have Week 2 work to do, hosting the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football.
Miami's moxie caught the attention of early bettors in the the NFL Week 3 odds market.
"This game saw decent action right away. Some smaller bets on the home 'dog Dolphins +4.5, but nothing heavy enough to move us off our number," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "Miami looked good today in a wild comeback victory where they scored 40-plus. We also saw some sharp money on Under 51, which bumped us to 50.5. Both offenses look good early, but we have to respect the sharp money out there, especially off the opening line."
Opening line: Giants -3; Over/Under 38.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: New York landed on Caesars' NFL Week 3 odds board as a 3-point favorite, and that line dipped to Giants -1 by Wednesday. The G-Men remain -1 this afternoon, with point-spread ticket count almost dead even and spread money running 2/1 on the underdog Cowboys.
Caesars opened the total at 39.5 and on Wednesday morning went to 39, where it remains now. Splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Week 3 Monday Night Football has seen a noteworthy line shift at DraftKings. New York opened -3 (-120) Sunday night and by late this morning was down to -1.
Part of that move is due to the G-Men's defensive line being banged up, with three players questionable this week. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even at DK, while 65% of early spread money is on the short 'dog and shorthanded Cowboys, who continue on without injured QB Dak Prescott.
The total opened at a modest 40, went to 39.5 Monday and 39 mid-morning today. The Over is getting 56% of bets, while 56% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Two weeks in, Dallas is 1-1 SU and ATS, which is certainly unexpected after losing QB Dak Prescott (thumb) in Week 1. In Week 2, the Cowboys closed as 7-point home underdogs to defending AFC champion Cincinnati. But the Pokes, behind backup QB Cooper Rush, nabbed the 20-17 outright win on a final-seconds 50-yard field goal.
Perhaps more surprising, New York is 2-0 SU and ATS. The Giants were 1-point home 'dogs to Carolina and notched a 19-16 victory. And with that, New York is actually favored in Week 3.
"This was another game where some of us were Giants -3.5 and some of us were -3," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "Giants -3 prevailed because Cooper Rush didn't look terrible today, and because the Giants won but closed as a home underdog to Carolina, which is very telling. Nothing significant yet on either side of the spread, which tells me -3 was the right opener.
The total opened at 38.5, easily the lowest on the NFL Week 3 odds board.
"This was one of the few games where we actually took sharp money on the Over, moving us to 39.5," Degnon said.
Opening line: Browns -3.5; Over/Under 40
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Amazon Prime)
UPDATE 5:15 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With three hours and change until kickoff, WynnBet has Cleveland as a 4-point chalk in the NFL Week 3 odds market. The Browns opened -3.5 Sunday night, peaked at -4.5 Wednesday morning and went to -4 this afternoon.
Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 on the road underdog Steelers, while spread cash is 2/1 on the home favorite Browns. Perhaps interestingly, moneyline bets are split 50/50, but Pittsburgh – currently +170 to win outright – is taking 73% of moneyline dollars.
"Steelers moneyline is a very popular choice, and we don't mind any of it," WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said.
The total opened at a short 40.5 and by Wednesday morning dipped to 38, where it remains this evening. The Over is seeing 61% of bets, but 55% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Despite their embarrassing late-game meltdown against the Jets, the Browns opened as 3.5-point favorites Sunday night at DraftKings. Perhaps as surprising, Cleveland reached -5 Monday and -5.5 Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday afternoon, however, the line backed up to Browns -4.5, where it sits now. The Steelers are netting 70% of early spread bets and 73% of early spread money.
The total opened at a modest 40.5, and even that was too much for early bettors. By Monday afternoon, it was down 2 points to 38.5, then went to 39 for a couple of hours Tuesday morning before falling to 38.
The total is now at 38.5, with 53% of tickets on the Over/64% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This game is the first on the NFL Week 3 odds board, in prime time Thursday night, which is the only reason why it's in this report.
In Week 2, Cleveland (1-1 SU and ATS) went off as a 6.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets and lost outright, 31-30. The Browns took a 30-17 lead on a TD with 1:55 remaining, but missed the PAT. Cleveland then shockingly gave up two Jets TDs in the final two minutes.
Pittsburgh (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS), catching 3 at home against New England, mustered only two field goals, a TD and a 2-point conversion in a 17-14 loss.
"We were somewhat split on this game between Browns -3 and -4, so we fell in the middle at -3.5," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said of the Steelers-Browns opening number. "Both teams didn't look great today, especially on the offensive side of the ball, so we're expecting a typical AFC North slugfest on TNF. We took a little bit of money on Cleveland, but nothing noteworthy to move us off our opener."