NFC East Betting Odds and Forecast
We've talked our way through the four divisions in the AFC, so it's on to the NFC now in the conference that is likely going to be the one that's much deeper overall. There is at least a handful of teams in the NFC that believe they can stake claim as the best in the conference, and another handful of challengers right behind them bolstering rosters this spring to hopefully take that next step competitively.
Everyone in the NFC East is in that challenger group at best coming into the year, although Eagles and Cowboys fans may try to convince you otherwise. Philadelphia and Dallas are the two franchises likely to be leading the race for this division throughout 2020, and it will be interesting to see which one of them comes out on top.
Those two franchises are obviously looking to take that next step and go on a deep playoff run, and the next step for Washington and the NY Giants is to give teams like Dallas and Philadelphia all they can handle every time out on the field.
It's those franchise trajectories of all four teams that make the NFC East futures markets one of the most interesting ones in the entire league.
The Cowboys fell short of the playoffs last season as quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott seek a 2020 postseason spot. (AP).
2020 NFC East Title Odds
The expected race between the Cowboys and Eagles for this division crown is explicitly laid out in these division prices. Those two teams are built to win now, while the New York and Washington are still accumulating building pieces. New York and Washington both believe they got their QB of the future in last year's draft, and if they take some big steps forward in their development, who knows what kind of wrench they could throw into this division race.
But it's all got to be a choice between the Cowboys and Eagles for this specific wager right now, and at least from a scheduling perspective, Dallas is easy to like. Philadelphia has to play Green Bay and New Orleans as there two non-common opponents with Dallas as the defending division champ, while Dallas gets Minnesota and Atlanta. Nothing's a walk in the park in the NFC, but you can understand why the Cowboys are the favorite with this just one of a few edges in their favor.
2020 NFC Championship Odds
Little reason to seriously consider the weaker half of this division as they go with Year 2 guys under center. Quarterbacks in Year 2 have had some very good seasons when you look at the last two MVP's, but when making the playoffs is highly unlikely, any New York or Washington tickets here are simply lottery tickets.
Therefore, it's that choice that's going to come up quite a bit throughout this piece that bettors are going to have to make. Is it going to be Dallas or Philadelphia that comes out of this division? And then can that team beat at least two of the Green Bay's, Seattle's, New Orleans', and San Francisco's of the world to get to a Super Bowl?
The Cowboys and Eagles are definitely capable of it if they are at their best the entire time, but that tends to have been a problem for both organizations in recent years.
2020 Super Bowl 55 Odds
The Cowboys and Eagles are 6th and 7th respectively in the entire league on the NFL Futures Betting Markets list, but part of that likely has to do with one of them getting a likely easier path to the playoffs by going through their division. Still it's not like the rest of the NFC contenders aren't just behind them lurking, as Seattle (+2200), Minnesota (+2500), and Green Bay (+2800) are all right there as well.
Depending on how things shake out, these NFC East teams could actually be slightly overvalued, penalized for not having the overall depth within the division that the others do. So the choice between the Cowboys and Eagles is the main issue again, although they'd still have to beat the AFC winner in this scenario and two AFC teams (KC and Baltimore) are #1 and #2 in price here. Waiting is never a bad idea.
2020 NFC East Win Totals Odds
This is where the meat and potatoes of this division's futures market can really get a handicapper settled in, as there tends to be strong opinions formed about these squads each year – on both sides – and at these numbers for each respective team, any strong case on either side of any win total should have some reason to it.
Is it really that hard to see the Eagles and/or Cowboys going 11-5 SU or 8-8 SU? Both of those scenarios are extremely plausible, which makes there be a lot of differing opinions in the NFL Wins Totals Odds market. Heck, the Giants and Redskins could end up with 8-8 SU or 4-12 SU seasons themselves as extremely plausible outcomes. All in all it gives bettors plenty of options to decide which side of the fence they land on with these specific teams and these win total numbers.
2020 NFC East Playoff PropsDallas: Yes (-225) or No (+180)
Philadelphia: Yes (-225) or No (+180)
NY Giants: Yes (+275) or No (-360)
Washington: Yes (+490) or No (-715)
The coin flipping between Dallas and Philadelphia continues here as they've got the same exact NFL Playoff Prop Odds to be playing football in January. One of them will win the division in all likelihood, so one of those 'yes' props will cash at -225, bettors just better hope they back the right one. A Wild Card berth is always possible for the other, but there is much stiffer competition in the other three NFC divisions to really bank on that for Dallas or Philadelphia.
Laying the chalk on the 'no' with the Giants and Redskins is a rather long and expensive way to make a buck, but the key part of that equation is “make a buck” as those two teams will only be playing 16 games this season tops.
2020 NFC East MVP ContendersDallas QB: Dak Prescott (+1200)
Philadelphia QB: Carson Wentz (+3000)
NY Giants RB: Saquon Barkley (+5000)
NY Giants QB: Daniel Jones (+6600)
Dallas RB: Ezekiel Elliott (+10000)
Washington QB: Dwayne Haskins (+15000)
Philadelphia RB: Miles Sanders (+20000)
Washington DE: Chase Young (+25000)
Philadelphia TE: Zach Ertz (+50000)
Dallas WR: CeeDee Lamb (+50000)
QB - Quarterback, RB - Running Back, WR - Wide Receiver, TE - Tight End, DE - Defensive End
Admittedly it was surprising to see Dallas QB Dak Prescott this high up on the overall list, as not only does he lead the way among players residing in the NFC East, Prescott has the 4th best odds of anyone in the NFL MVP Futures Odds race. You see that paired with the Cowboys division price and projections for the Cowboys appear to be strong, but then when you piece in the season win total number and price on making the playoffs being identical to Philly's each time and it makes you pause. It's doubtful all of those things are accurate.
Among the other interesting names on the list are the two guys in the Giants backfield with Barkley and Jones. If the Giants are going to take that next big step forward in their development, 2020 will be a big year for at least one of those guys. It's still probably a level or two out of reach of serious MVP consideration, but if they are on the outskirts of those discussions in September and October, 2020 will be an interesting one for Giants fans.
2020 NFC East ROY Contenders
OffensePhiladelphia WR: Jalen Reagor (+2000)
Dallas WR: CeeDee Lamb (+2500)
Philadelphia QB: Jalen Hurts (+8000)
Washington RB: Antonio Gibson (+15000)
QB - Quarterback, RB - Running Back, WR - Wide Receiver
DefenseWashington DE: Chase Young (+200)
NY Giants S: Xavier McKinney (+3300)
Dallas CB: Trevon Diggs (+6600)
Dallas DL: Neville Gallimore (+10000)
DL - Defensive Lineman, DE - Defensive End, CB - Cornerback, S - Safety
Definitely some actionable names on both of these Rookie of the Year lists, as either of those wide receivers could go off and get the award if they prove to be one of the missing pieces for their respective clubs.
Washington's Chase Young is the overall favorite on the defensive side of things, and rightfully so. The last two defensive guys to be the first defensive player off the draft board and win the ROY that season were two guys Young has a connection too given that all three of them went to Ohio State – Nick and Joey Bosa – and he'd love to carry on that proud Buckeye tradition.
But it's the name Jalen Hurts in here that will get plenty of attention as the Eagles made the decision to bring him into the fold, just after recently signing Carson Wentz to a long term extension not that long ago. Hurts legitimately in the ROY conversation means it's been a horrible year for Wentz, and possibly a shaky year for the Eagles in general. So no point in even considering Hurts if you are backing the Eagles in other futures previously discussed.
2020 NFC East Predictions
Best Bet/Value on NFC East Division Winner
Best Best: Dallas (+100)
Even though other future markets may suggest that Dallas and Philly should be treated as equal for 2020, I'm not sure that will be the case in the end. The Cowboys have that nice scheduling edge where Eagles losses to Green Bay and New Orleans could be the ones that keep them in second place behind the Cowboys.
The core group of players on Dallas know that the time is now to start showing significant results, and the market belief/projection that Dak Prescott will continue to grow as a QB and comes into the year as a legitimate MVP threat definitely supports the idea that big things should be coming for Dallas this year. They all start with the division crown.
Best Bet/Value on NFC Championship Winner
Best Bet: Dallas (+900)
The high confidence from backing the Cowboys to win the division does not carry over to this play on winning the conference, as Dallas still has to go out and show it on the field. The price is still a tad overvalued given that there are other NFC teams that can be viewed as better overall but could be coming into the playoffs as a Wild Card, so that's always got to be considered too.
It's worth a very small investment at this stage, making the scenario of adding more partial units on it as the year goes on.
Best Bet/Value for Super Bowl 55 Winner
Best Value: Dallas (+1800)
The Cowboys take the cake as the de facto selection in a division where there just aren't any better choices in my view. Backing the Cowboys to win it all in 2020 is not something I am particularly looking to do at this point, as I'll make sure the Cowboys are in the playoffs before I consider them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Best Bets/Value for NFC East Season Win Totals
Best Over: NY Giants Over 6.5 wins
The current price on this 'over' is +100 and while the Giants would need a jump of three more wins over last year's finish, it's not like there isn't historical precedent for them to do so. In fact, in the last seven years in the NFL, an average of 6.5 teams per season increase their win total by three or more the following year, and the most common number of wins those teams had to improve upon was “4” like New York had a year ago.
Giants brass are hoping that their backfield is now set up for years with Barkley and Jones officially having the keys to the kingdom, making that hopeful upward trajectory in a post-rebuilding time quite likely for a team like the Giants. If they can put a scare or two in the Cowboys and Eagles in those four games that they play, take care of Washington and other lesser teams, a .500 campaign should be in the cards for this team.
Best Under: Philadelphia Under 9.5 wins
I've never been a big Carson Wentz guy, and at least from the outside it appears some in the Eagles front office may be having some doubts about him too. Going out and drafting Jalen Hurts can be viewed as a solid contingency plan if Wentz continues to have injury concerns, but it's brought plenty of unnecessary doubt and criticism to the direction this club is headed.
Not only that, but no reigning NFC East division champion has improved on their win total from one year to the next during the past seven seasons, and the Eagles finished with a 9-7 SU record a year ago. That's likely their ceiling in 2020.
Best Bets/Value for Yes/No in the 2020 NFL Playoffs
Best Value: Dallas “Yes”
Truthfully, the 'no' option on Washington would have to be classified as the “best” bet in this division, but who wants to read about tying up your money for eight months on a -715 favorite. Granted, it's not like laying -225 on the 'yes' with Dallas is completely in a different area code, but the Cowboys have enough talent where even without a division crown they should find themselves in one of those Wild Card spots.
I just don't think you can say the same thing about the Eagles, and that's why I don't particularly agree with the two teams having the exact same price here.
Best Bets/Value for Individual Awards
Chase Young was the definition of a game wrecker in college and he's got the potential to be the exact same thing at this level. How quickly he adjusts to the pro game could be the the thing that determines whether or not he does actually claim the DROY, but he's the most likely to win any hardware in terms of any of the names on any of the mentioned lists.
The two Dallas players can be considered to go hand-in-hand though, as if Prescott does end up having a MVP caliber campaign, Lamb is likely to be on the other end of a lot of those Prescott numbers. It will be hard for anyone but a QB to win the OROY this year though given the QB class drafted and their specific situations with getting lots of playing time in the pros, but Lamb could get some nods if the Cowboys finish with the #1 seed for instance.
Analysis provided by VI Expert Matt Blunt - Odds & Betting Markets Subject to Change