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Steelers vs Bills Prediction, Picks, Odds | NFL Wild Card Game

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Here's everything you need to know about the Steelers vs. Bills Picks, Predictions, and Odds for this NFL Wild Card Game.

The first round of the NFL Playoffs resumes on Sunday afternoon with what’s expected to be a lopsided AFC clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

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Steelers vs Bills Betting Prediction & Odds | NFL Wild Card Game

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Not too long ago, the Bills found themselves teetering on the edge of playoff contention as they entered their Week 13 bye owning a lackluster record of 6-6, and it was becoming increasingly unclear what the future held for this Buffalo team staring down the barrel of tough matchups against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins with just five regular season games remaining on the schedule.

However, after weeks of beating up on the Bills for their early shortcomings, Buffalo flipped the switch and kicked it into high gear just in time to make a run at the division crown, closing the regular season with five straight wins – and all of a sudden, transforming into the team that we expected them to be since Day 1 by claiming the two-seed in the conference.

Based on the betting odds and overall narrative surrounding this matchup though, you would never know that the Bills still hadn’t punched their ticket to the playoffs as of last Saturday. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the SuperBook opened the line for this contest at Bills -10 as books try to keep bettors away from teasing Buffalo at a shorter number.

Well, they did it. Mission accomplished, if keeping bettors away was the goal. I personally believe the Bills are laying way too many points in this spot. So I’m going to stay away from picking a side. Instead, I see more value in betting the low total for this matchup.

The Steelers have also had their fair share of ups and downs this season, and their low-points have certainly been extreme as Pittsburgh’s offense finished the regular season ranked 28th in scoring and 25th in total offense.

However, the Steelers have looked like a completely different team in their last three games with Mason Rudolph at QB, highlighted by Pittsburgh entering the postseason riding a three-game win streak – while generating 27 PPG on the offensive side of the ball in those three contests.

The total for this matchup is listed near OU 36 at most shops as of Thursday afternoon – and quite frankly, Buffalo has enough firepower to clear this number by themselves. The Bills scored 31-plus points in six games during the regular season, and they scored 37-plus points on three separate occasions.

But even if Buffalo’s point total rings in below its season average of 27 PPG this contest, I still have faith in Pittsburgh’s ability to send the total over the number after scoring 30-plus points in two of their last three games.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Steelers 16
Best Bet: Over 35.5 (-110)

PIT @ BUF Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +6.5 -110 +6.5 -110 +6.5 -105 +6.5 -110 +6.5 -102 +4.5 +102 +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -6.5 -110 -6.5 -110 -6.5 -115 -6.5 -110 -6.5 -118 -4.5 -127 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o20 -105 o20.5 +120 N/A o18.5 -110 o20.5 +102 o19.5 -115 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u20 -115 u20.5 -140 N/A u18.5 -110 u20.5 -122 u19.5 -108 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +275 +250 +280 +275 +270 +235 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -350 -330 -350 -350 -340 -315 -520  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -110 N/A +4.5 -120 N/A +4.5 -114 +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -4.5 -110 -4.5 -110 N/A -4.5 even N/A -4.5 -109 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o18.5 -125 o19.5 -120 N/A o19.5 -120 N/A o19.5 -107 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u18.5 +105 u19.5 -100 N/A u19.5 even N/A u19.5 -117 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +230 +215 N/A N/A N/A +200 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -280 -270 N/A N/A N/A -265 -520  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +3 -115 +2.5 +112 +3 -130 +3 -115 +2.5 +110 +2.5 even +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -3 -105 -2.5 -136 -3 even -3 -105 -2.5 -130 -2.5 -122 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o7.5 +115 o7.5 +126 N/A o7 -135 o7.5 +120 o7.5 +112 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u7.5 -135 u7.5 -154 N/A u7 +115 u7.5 -142 u7.5 -141 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +225 +205 +200 +222 +215 +205 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -275 -260 -275 -278 -265 -265 -520  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +3.5 -115 +3.5 -114 N/A N/A +9.5 even +2.5 +106 +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -3.5 -105 -3.5 -108 N/A N/A -9.5 -130 -2.5 -132 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o10.5 +110 o6.5 -154 N/A N/A o10.5 +135 o10.5 -113 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u10.5 -130 u6.5 +116 N/A N/A u10.5 -175 u10.5 -112 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +210 +194 N/A N/A +215 +170 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -260 -245 N/A N/A -265 -230 -520  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +2.5 even +2.5 -102 N/A N/A +2.5 -108 +1.5 -112 +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -2.5 -120 -2.5 -120 N/A N/A -2.5 -112 -1.5 -112 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o7.5 +115 o8.5 -118 N/A N/A o7.5 +110 o7.5 -103 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u7.5 -135 u8.5 -126 N/A N/A u7.5 -130 u7.5 -125 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +180 +168 N/A N/A +164 +155 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -220 -210 N/A N/A -198 -195 -520  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+7.5 -105 +2.5 +105 +2.5 -106 N/A N/A +2.5 +110 +2.5 +102 +10 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-7.5 -115 -2.5 -125 -2.5 -116 N/A N/A -2.5 -130 -2.5 -125 -10 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
o43 -105 o10.5 +110 o10.5 +108 N/A N/A o10.5 +105 o9.5 -134 o39.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
u43 -115 u10.5 -130 u10.5 -132 N/A N/A u10.5 -125 u9.5 +108 u39.5 -110  
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers 145 Steelers
+310 +190 +168 N/A N/A +195 +175 +400  
Buffalo Bills 146 Bills
-390 -230 -210 N/A N/A -238 -220 -520  

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Steelers vs Bills Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, January 14
Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Steelers vs Bills pick to get bonus bets!

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

For a brief moment, Mike Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing season appeared to be in jeopardy as the Steelers entered Week 16 following losses in four of their last five games to fall to a record of 7-7 – and the future looked pretty bleak for Pittsburgh with a trio of matchups against the Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens on the horizon.

However, similarly to Buffalo, Pittsburgh sprung to life at just the right moment and secured a playoff spot by running the table in their final three games – and although their paths to the postseason may have been similar, don’t get fooled into thinking the Bills and Steelers wield the same level of potential. Buffalo is the better team in this matchup, but I simply don’t trust them to beat Pittsburgh by a double-digit margin.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

It’s been quite the roller coaster for Buffalo this season. Nobody ever doubted the fact that the Bills were one of the most dangerous teams in football, even when they owned a .500 record. However, time after time they would shoot themselves in the foot with careless mistakes and turnover issues – and it was only a matter of time before they ironed out the kinks and became a force to be reckoned with.

The only question was, would they turn things around in time to make the playoffs? And the answer to that question is: yes. So with home field advantage in their back pocket for at least the first two rounds of the postseason, the sky is the limit for the Bills.

Steelers vs Bills Betting Trends

  • The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Bills are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Buffalo's last 10 games.
  • The Bills are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Pittsburgh's last five games.
  • The Steelers are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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