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SB Trend favor Eagles in Week 1

4 minute read
The 2018 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday Sept. 6 when Philadelphia hosts Atlanta at Lincoln Financial Field from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The two teams met in the 2017 Divisional Playoffs and Philadelphia captured a 15-10 win over Atlanta as a 2 ½-point home underdog.

For the Week 1 rematch, the Eagles opened as four-point home favorites but that number has moved in Atlanta's direction and the line is listed as low as Philadelphia -1 ½ at a few betting outfits. 

On Monday, Eagles coach Doug Pederson says quarterback Nick Foles will start for the team in the opener and Carson Wentz still hasn't been medically cleared for contact. 

Foles was the starter in last year's postseason matchup against Atlanta and was 23-of-30 for 246 yards but the veteran who won last year's Super Bowl for the Eagles hasn't looked sharp in the preseason. 

Whether or its Foles or Wentz under center for the Eagles, backing the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and the public has banked on it.

The trend didn't connect last year as Kansas City stunned New England 42-27 at Foxboro. However, bettors should note that we've only seen Super Bowl winners drop back-to-back openers twice since 2000. 

Those consecutive setbacks occured in the 2012 and 2013 seasons when the Giants and Ravens lost to the Cowboys and Broncos respectively. 

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2017)
Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)
2017 New England (-8) vs. Kansas City 42-27 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2016 Denver (+3) vs. Carolina 21-20 (Win-Win-Over)
2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push-Under)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win-Over)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win-Over)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win-Under)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss-Under)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win-Under)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win-Under)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win-Over)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win-Over)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push-Over)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win-Under)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win-Over)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win-Under)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 (Win-Loss-Over)

Including New England's defeat to Kansas City last season, the defending champions are now 15-3 straight up and 11-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.

There is another popular Super Bowl betting angle that calls for fading last year's runner-up in Week 1. 

In case you forgot, the Eagles defeated the New England Patriots and they're listed as six-point home favorites over the Houston Texans in Week 1.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2017)
Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)
2017 Atlanta (-7) at Chicago 23-17 (Win-Loss-Under)
2016 Carolina (-3) at Denver 20-21 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 31-34 - OT (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss-Under)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss-Under)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win-Under)

In the 2017 regular season, the Falcons did win their Week 1 opener at Chicago but they failed to cover the spread as road favorites. 

Including that result, the Super Bowl runner-up from the previous season has gone 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS since 1999.

Despite the poor overall numbers (21%) versus the number during this span, the Super Bowl ‘losers’ have won four of the last six seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.

We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser and the total for the Patriots-Texans matchup is currently the only ‘over/under’ listed in the fifties for the opening weekend.

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