Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
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Week 8 of the NFL is a bizarre looking schedule with lots of possible pitfalls for Nevada sports books who come into the week still reeling from a Week 7 loss.
"There are a lot of big numbers out there this week and its kind of scared the public away on the most popular teams they like to bet weekly like the Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "I'm sure they'll take them on the day of the game, but right now not much."
The 7-0 Rams are 8.5-point home favorites against the Packers, the Chiefs are 9.5-point home favorites against the Broncos, and the Patriots are -14 at Buffalo on Monday night.
"Sharp money took the Packers +9 earlier in the week against the Rams," said Simbal who has one of the three -8.5's in town. Most books like the Westgate SuperBook, William Hill, Station Casinos and Mirage are -9. The Stratosphere is protecting against expected public parlay and teaser play and has the Rams -9.5.
Despite being undefeated, the number has been catching up with the Rams who are the highest rated team in the NFL. They covered the spread with 39-10 win at San Francisco last week ending a 0-3 ATS run. The Packers have been beaten soundly in both their road games, 31-17 at Washington and 31-23 at Detroit.
While there has been a pause on the popular public teams, for now, the public is still firing away on some teams reinvesting all the cash they won last week.
"What we are seeing from the public so far is them keying on the bad teams and betting against them," said Simbal. "They're betting the Colts, but I think it's more about them betting against the Raiders. That's the same thing with the Redskins who they're betting a lot because they're betting against the Giants."
The 2-5 Colts are 3-point favorites at Oakland and there's a perception that the 1-5 Raiders are already surrendering and building for the future (Las Vegas).
"We did have some sharp money play the Colts, but I think that was more about a bad opening number," said Simbal. "We opened -1 and they laid it as well as -2 and -2.5, but nothing at -3."
The 1-6 Giants are getting +1 at home against the NFC East-leading Redskins (4-2) who hit the road for the third time this season. They were blown out 43-19 at New Orleans four weeks ago and won Week 1, 24-6, at Arizona.
CG Tech books are one of two books in Las Vegas to have the Bears -8 at home against the Jets while the rest of the town is -7.5.
"Yeah, we had some sharp play on the Bears early on," said Simbal, who opened the Bears - 6.5. "They had some early intel about two (Jets) wide receivers being out and most of the secondary being banged up as well."
Simbal said the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Ravens have also attracted sharp money. The Eagles are -3 (-120) against the Jaguars in London. Blake Bortles will start at QB, but he'll be on a short leash just like last week when he replaced by Cody Kessler in a 20-7 home loss to Houston. The Jags have lost their last three games, failing to cover all three, and the big deal this week is three of their cornerbacks being Out.
The Bengals opened as 6-point home favorites against the Buccaneers and are down to as low as -3.5 at Wynn and SuperBook. CG Tech books are at -4. The reason for the wagers is because the Bengals have the 31st ranked defense allowing 29 ppg and 429 ypg and they've lost their last two.
The Ravens opened -1 at Carolina and it's been bet up -2.5 (-120) at CG Tech books. Wynn and the Mirage are already at -3 EVEN. The South Point is still at -2.5 and they're usually the best indicator in these 2.5/3 situations. The Ravens have all of their corners banged up.
"One of our sharpest bettor who consistently does well, a guy who is given half limits at most other places in town, played the Broncos-Chiefs total Under 54 and we're at 53.5 now," Simbal said.
While the inflated spreads have been no issue for the Chiefs to cover, the inflated totals have seen them stay Under in three of their last four despite having highest scoring offense at 37 ppg and the worst defense in the NFL allowing 435 ypg. The Chiefs won 27-23 at Denver in Week 4 staying Under 53.5. The Chiefs have now stayed Under in seven of their last eight when posted as the favorite.
Simbal also shared some other large wagers from sharps on totals of other games.
"They bet the Giants-Redskins Over 42 pushing us to 43.5 and took the 49ers-Cardinals game Under 42.5 and we're at 42 now," he said. "We had a couple plays on the Rams and Packers Under 57.5, but public money has been betting the Over since we went to 56.5."
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.