Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
Books have solid Week 13 win
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Anything can happen on an NFL Sunday and when it all comes together like witnessed in Sunday's Week 13 action, bettors who traditionally play favorites are likely to get buried and the sports books are going to scoop up most of the chips.
"It was one of the best Sunday's we've had in a long time," said Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller.
Favorites went 6-8 against the spread culminating with the 3.5-point underdog Chargers 33-30 win at Pittsburgh to cap a rough day for favorite money-line parlay and teaser players. The Chargers win was one of six underdogs to win outright on the day, the largest being the Cardinals 20-17 win at Green Bay (-13.5) which paid out +800 on the money-line and also got head coach Mike McCarthy fired, on quarterback Aaron Rodgers birthday no less.
The books did well with the Cardinals win, but it didn't rank as one of the best wins on the day just because the betting public has been tired of getting burned by the Packers not covering most of the season while also remembering the Cardinals were beat 45-10 last week by the Chargers.
It was more of an 'I'llpass' game, but Sunday's other games were hit pretty hard collectively by the public and the Chargers win was the cherry on top of an already good day.
"Very solid day, we need the Chargers and Under late," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Jaguars, Raiders, Ravens, and Bucs were good with the Jags being the best. The Rams, Patriots and Seahawks were not good for the books."
Bettors couldn't gain much steam in their parlay action. They got a late TD by the Rams to cover -10 at Detroit, winning 30-16, but nothing else went their way in the morning to pair it up with.
The Colts were the most popular selection laying -4 at Jacksonville. William Hill sports books had 88 percent of their tickets written on the game taking the Colts who were riding a five-game win streak. The Jaguars had lost seven straight and had backup QB Cody Kessler starting, but the defense was exceptional in a 6-0 win that paid +165 on the money line.
The Falcons were a hugely popular bet with large money and public money for their home game against rookie QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Ravens went from a 2.5-point road favorite to the Falcons being -2.5 by kickoff at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. William Hill had 85 percent of the cash on the game taking the Falcons, so of course, the Ravens win 26-16 with Jackson now moving to 3-0 as the starter. The Falcons looked absolutely lifeless, but the Ravens defense had a lot to do with it.
The Buccaneers led throughout at home in a 24-17 win against the Panthers who were 3.5-point road favorites. Cam Newton threw four interceptions helping the Panthers to their fourth straight loss.
"Very solid day," said Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was one Jets win away from having a huge day."
The Jets (+10) blew a 16-6 halftime lead at Tennessee but still covered in the Titans 26-22 win, which went Over the total of 41. Four of the final five games posted on Sunday went 'over' the total after the morning games saw the 'under' go 8-1. The Titans helped some afternoon teasers and money-line parlays cash tied to the Patriots and Seahawks.
The Patriots (-5) methodically beat the Vikings, 26-10, and the Seahawks (-10) kept rolling with a 43-16 home win against the 49ers. Any talk of QB Tom Brady's demise should just stop as they've covered eight of 12 this season. Minnesota-New England was William Hill's largest wagered game of the day with 73 percent of the cash taking the Patriots. Seattle moves to 7-3-2 ATS and looks like a team I wouldn't want visiting my stadium during the playoffs.
Kornegay said his worst losses on the day were the Rams and Texans. The Rams took over the No. 1 seed in the NFC following their win coupled with the Saints loss Thursday night at Dallas, another money-line dog winner for the week. The Texans won their ninth straight game to make them the hottest team in the NFL.
The Chiefs were laying -14 at Oakland and the total was 55.5. The Raiders hung around to cover a 40-33 Chiefs win, the first game playing without released RB Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs used a trio of backs to make-up for the loss and the team rushed for 174 yards, but QB Patrick Mahomes was the leading rusher with 52 yards.
The Chiefs started the season 7-0 ATS, but have gone 1-3-1 ATS in their last five, including no covers in their last three. That KC defense is horrendous and it'll only be exposed more in the playoffs.
The SuperBook updated their Super Bowl futures Monday morning and have the Rams 5/2 followed by the Saints (3/1), Chiefs (4/1) and Patriots (5/1). Those are the big-4 and then it goes Chargers (10/1), Steelers (12/1), Texans (16/1) and Bears (20/1). The Cowboys are 25/1 and the Vikings, Seahawks, and Ravens are 40/1. The Eagles and Broncos are each 100/1.
If I was an AFC wild-card team with home field advantage, I'm really hoping the Broncos don't make the playoffs and pay a visit. Denver is hot and their remaining schedule is easy.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.