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AFC Divisional Notes

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
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NFC Divisional Notes | Playoff Results

Saturday, Jan. 12, 2019

Indianapolis at Kansas City (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: opened Kansas City -4 and the number was quickly pushed up to 5 (-115). The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook sent out the Chiefs -5 ½ and the number has held steady at their property. Both outfits opened the total at 55 ½ and early ‘over’ wagers have pushed it up to 56.

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: The last meeting between the pair took place in the 2016 regular season when Kansas City captured a 30-14 road win over Indianapolis as a 2 ½-point underdog. Prior to that outcome, the Colts had won three straight games over the Chiefs which included a 45-44 comeback victory at home in the 2013-14 AFC Wild Card round. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 3-1 all-time record versus the Chiefs and that includes a pair of wins at Arrowhead Stadium, when Indy stifled Kansas City in the 2012 (20-13) and 2013 (23-7) regular seasons.

Playoff Notes: The Colts improved to 4-3 in the playoffs with Luck under center after the club defeated the Texans 21-7 in last Saturday’s Wild Card win. Indianapolis has played five road games during this span and it’s gone 2-3 while averaging 16.6 points per game.

Going back to the 1994 postseason, the Chiefs are 1-10 both straight up and against the spread in their last 11 playoff matchups. During this span, Kansas City is 0-6 in its past six home playoff games dating back to a Wild-Card win in the 1993 playoffs against the Steelers. Last season, they dropped a 22-21 decision to the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Wild Card round, failing to cover as 8 ½-point home favorites.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an 11-13 all-time record in the playoffs. He went 10-9 during his 14-year run with the Philadelphia Eagles but is just 1-4 in five games with the Chiefs, and the lone win came on the road. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 1-0 in the playoffs, the first win coming last Saturday.

Total Notes: Including last week’s result versus Houston, the Colts have watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 on the road this season. The defense has only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span and that’s resulted in a 3-1 lean to the low side. The Colts have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in seven playoff games during Luck’s tenure.

Kansas City watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home this season despite solid numbers from its offense (32.4 PPG). Those results were helped by the Chiefs defense, which allowed 34.6 PPG on the road and just 18 PPG at home. The Chiefs have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six playoff games, dating back to 2011 and that includes a 3-0 mark at Arrowhead.

Sunday, Jan. 13, 2019

L.A. Chargers at New England (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: After the Chargers went up three scores on the Ravens in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Wild Card game, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an opener of New England -4 ½ with a total of 48 ½. Soon after,  sent out the Patriots as five-point favorites with the total listed a point lower at 47 ½.

Los Angeles Road Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS
New England Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The pair met in the 2017 regular season from Foxboro and New England defeated Los Angeles 21-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. Including that outcome, the Patriots have won seven of the last eight meetings against the Chargers while going 6-2 versus the number. The lone win for the Bolts came in the 2008 regular season from San Diego.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers hasn’t had much success against New England in his career, going 1-7 all-time in eight meetings. The signal caller on the other side, Tom Brady, has gone 8-2 all-time versus the Chargers and that includes a 7-0 head-to-head record versus Rivers. The aforementioned win by the Chargers in 2008 featured Matt Cassel at QB for New England, who lost Brady in Week 1 of the regular season to a knee injury.

Playoff Notes: Sunday’s 23-17 win over Baltimore in the Wild Card round pushed the Chargers to 5-5 all-time in the playoffs with Rivers under center. Los Angeles has gone 4-0 in the Wild Card round during this span but are 1-5 combined in the Divisional Playoffs and Championship rounds.

New England has won its last two postseason meetings against the Chargers, the most recent game taking place in the 2007-08 AFC title game. New England won 21-14 at home but Los Angeles covered as a 14-point underdog.

Head coach Bill Belichick and Brady have gone 27-10 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the club has gone 19-3 SU and 12-9-1 ATS and that includes a run of eight straight wins headed into this matchup. Of those eight wins, five have come by double digits.

Total Notes: Including the ‘under’ result against the Ravens in Sunday’s Wild Card matchup, the Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 on the road this season. Los Angeles (26.9 PPG) has averaged slightly more points as a visitor this season and the offense has also traveled well too. In four trips to the Eastern Time Zone, the Chargers averaged 31.3 PPG and that led to a 4-0 mark. Los Angeles also defeated Tennessee 20-19 at Wembley Stadium from London in Week 7 and the ‘under’ (46) connected in that matchup.

The Patriots were a solid ‘under’ bet (11-5) this season and most of the winning tickets to the low side came at Gillette Stadium. Despite averaging 32.9 PPG at home, New England saw the ‘under’ go 6-2 and it was largely due to its defense. The unit only surrendered 16.6 PPG at Foxboro, ranked second-best in the league.  Make a note that New England faced three playoff teams at home and those clubs scored 28 PPG compared to 9.8 PPG versus clubs not in the postseason.  

The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in New England’s last eight playoffs games and during its eight-game playoff winning streak at home, the high side is also 6-2 in those games.

Going back to the 2008 playoffs, the ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the Chargers and Patriots and five of the outcomes saw a combined score of 43 points or less.


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