Betting Recap – Week 16

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+8, ML +350) at Seahawks, 27-13
Raiders (+7.5. ML +280) at Chargers, 24-17
Jets (+3, ML +155) vs. Steelers, 16-10
Eagles (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Cowboys, 17-9

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-10) at Browns, 31-15
Broncos (-8) vs. Lions, 27-17
Falcons (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 24-12
Chiefs (-7) at Bears, 26-3
Colts (-7) vs. Panthers, 38-6
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Bills, 24-17

The Art of Falconry

-- The Atlanta Falcons were just 1-7 SU heading into their Week 9 bye, and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that head coach Dan Quinn would be fired, and that there would be some major staff and personnel changes. The Falcons banded together in Week 10 and pulled off a stunner, winning 26-9 at 13.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on Nov. 10, and that kicked off a 5-2 SU run to get back to 6-9 SU heading into the Week 17 finale at Tampa Bay.

For the Falcons, they have showed no quit, and their defensive line play has been brutal - to opposing quarterbacks - in the second half. As mentioned, they face the Bucs in Week 17 at Raymond James Stadium, as the revenge tour continues. Bettors are finding the Falcons to be a tremendous value lately. They started out 1-6 ATS in the first seven games, but they're 6-2 ATS across the past eight contests. That includes a 3-0 ATS run on the road, which makes them worth watching heading into the RayJay on Sunday. The Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Tampa, while the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The 'over' is also 6-1 in the previous seven.

 Total Recall

-- There were two games with a total of 50 or greater -- Houston Texans-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5) and Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (51) each ended up going under.

The Saturday game between the Texans and Bucs never materialized into a shootout. Well, it started out that way, as the teams combined for 34 points in the first half, but they totaled just three field goals in the final 30 minutes. It's like someone turned off the offensive spigot.

In the game with the highest total on the board, one of the starting quarterbacks was lost to injury. So that's understandable why the game ended up going under - although it's not the quarterback you'd think. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) left the game early in the second half due to injury, but the Cards offense didn't skip a beat. They kept their foot on the gas, as supposed MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson didn't do much of anything on offense. The Seahawks had two scoreless quarters, and they managed a total of just 13 points on their home turf. The two games with a total of 49 -- Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints-Tennessee Titans -- ended up splitting. The Ravens did their part, but the Browns managed just 15 points after hanging a 40-burger on Balto. earlier this season. The Saints and Titans combined by 66 points in the third-highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-New York Jets (36.5) was easily the lowest score on the board, and it never came close to hitting 'over'. The Steelers and Jets were tied 10-10 at halftime, but Pittsburgh's passing offense tossed up a bunch of 'ducks', and they were unable to score in the final 30 minutes. The Jets didn't do much better, scratching out just two field goals, but they ended up falling 16-10 to old buddy RB Le'Veon Bell and the Jets in a costly loss.

The Sunday nighter between the Kansas City Chiefs-Chicago Bears (45.5) hit the 'under', now 13-4 on the season. We have one more night game Monday between the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings (47) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-30 (36.2%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings, but 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to Arrowhead. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the past meetings.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in the past seven trips to Foxboro, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and the home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 in this series.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series, but 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Charlotte. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, with the underdog 10-1 ATS in the previous 11 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The home team has cashed in six of the past eight meetings in this series. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Minnesota.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

The favorite has cashed in eight of the past nine meetings in this series, while the Browns are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in the series. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, and 6-2 in the past eight battles in Cincinnati.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Buffalo, with the underdog 20-8 ATS in the past 28 meetings in this series.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Packers are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings, with the favorite 19-7 ATS in the past 26 in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, with the over 4-0 in the past four at Ford Field.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 trips to Dallas, with the road team 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The underdog is also 27-12 ATS in the past 39. The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 in the past four in Dallas.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings in L.A., with the favorite 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in SoCal, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, but 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in New Jersey. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall, and a perfect 7-0 in the past seven meetings in New Jersey.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Titans are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to Houston, and 4-12 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The over is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Houston.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts are a dismal 0-4 ATS in the past four trips to Jacksonville, and 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in this series.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, but the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 in the series and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The under is also 6-0 in the past six in this series, and 4-0 in the past four in Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the underdog 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is also 5-0 in the past five battles in Baltimore.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in Seattle, while going 3-12-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The over is also 6-2 in the past eight in this series.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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