Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
Week 1 Angles - Super Bowl Winners and Losers
NFL WEEK 1 ANGLES
SUPER BOWL COMBATANTS
With the NFL the next sport up to take their crack at getting through a season in this unique year, hopefully some of the annual angles bettors like to bring up during football season remain relevant.
And while any February hangover would have had anyone sobered up pretty quick, one of my favorite opening week angles is to look at the season opener for those two teams that went the distance last year.
The two teams tend to change from year to year, but the Week 1 results do have some strong historical precedent, so let's take a look at some perspectives the Week 1 games in Kansas City and San Francisco.
Both teams are currently laying at least a touchdown for those season/home openers as well.
SUPER BOWL WINNERS IN WEEK 1
Thanks to the Patriots beating Pittsburgh as -5.5 home favorites in Week 1 last year, the reigning champs are now 17-3 straight up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener the following year.
That's a blind system that bodes well for Chiefs fans later in the week, as they come in as a -9.5 home favorite for their opener on Thursday Night.
SB Week 1 Winner Matchup: Kansas City -9.5 vs. Houston
Tough to argue against them winning the game with that 17-3 SU record, but it's also could be a huge motivational edge on Houston's side with the revenge factor for them losing 51-31 in the Divisional Round in this stadium a year ago. It's more of how Houston loss that game – blowing the big early lead – that actually might make this a stronger revenge spot then seemingly equal ones, but to bet into that history is tough as well.
What makes this year's game more convoluted for backing the defending champs though is the fact that these Super Bowl winners since 2000, when laying a TD or more, are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.
Total bettors should note that the 'over-under' (OU) is 4-2 in those games.
That's a high success rate on the outright, but not as rosy on the ATS number, and the prospect of anyone winning a game by more than a TD in a season opener after the lack of a regular summer/training camp/preseason games does seem a bit harder to get behind this year.
But the past doesn't lie, and you can bet at a 17-3 SU rate blind, the Chiefs ML option this week will be tied into a heck of a lot of parlays out there for Sunday's action.
You can follow the line movements on this matchup and most would expect the Kansas City (-475) market will be driven upwards by kickoff.
Super Bowl Winner History - Week 1
|Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2019)|
SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1
The Los Angeles Rams were able to buck most of the negative history Super Bowl losers have in their season opener the following campaign, although the 30-27 win over Carolina last year came with plenty of sweat attached to it.
The Rams victory as -1.5 road chalk both SU and ATS put the record for defending Super Bowl “losers” in their opener the following year at 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS the past 21 years.
LA's win also marked the second time we've had a streak of at least three years where these “losers” end up winning their opener the following year, and never have we had a streak of more than three seasons in that regard.
SB Loser Week 1 Matchup: Arizona at San Francisco (-7)
Does that mean an Arizona Cardinals ML (+245) selection is in play this week?
Arizona visits San Francisco to start the 2020 campaign, and with the 49ers losing the Super Bowl the way they did, they do look like the prime profile of a Super Bowl 'loser' that's likely better to be faded in their opener.
That doesn't necessarily mean a Cardinals ML play is the best way to go about things here, but seven points is a lot to lay for a division game out of the gate, when the last “normal” month the country experienced this year started with the toughest loss in the careers of those 49ers players.
That is a team that's going to have to prove it to me from the start, at least to show that they are mentally invested in this year from start to finish more than anything. If they aren't and do experience a post-Super Bowl slumber, then these point spreads are going to be quite high for them to cover at least early on.
With the horrible ATS record Super Bowl 'losers' have had this century, it's as though there are quite a few angles lining up on Arizona for the game.
Hopefully they don't become too public of a dog.
Super Bowl Loser History - Week 1
|Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2019)|
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