Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM
Week 13 Parlay, Teaser & Prop Best Bets
After the most boring start to a year for sports bettors in recent memory, the weeks of 2020 seem to be flying by as December is now upon us and we are approaching the 13th week of the NFL season.
Those who read my pieces last week were hopefully able to cash both teasers and all six of the anytime touchdown props I suggested for two big paydays.
I have found teasers and touchdown props have been cashing at a consistent clip for me as of late, so I decided to go back to them again for my picks this week.
My bets for Week 13 can be found below. Good Luck!
NFL Week 13 Parlay Best Bets
Two-Way Straight Parlay
- New Orleans Saints -145 at Atlanta Falcons
- Buffalo Bills -120 at San Francisco
Payout: +210 at BetMGM
New Orleans’ quarterback, Drew Brees, has missed the last two weeks with a rib injury, leaving Taysom Hill his first professional opportunity as a starting signal caller, but frankly it doesn’t matter who is under center for the Saints at this point in the season, considering their defense is absolutely cooking in all phases of the game, holding opposing offenses to less than 10 points per game (7) over its last four contests, which includes their 24-9 win over Atlanta.
In Hill’s first start against the Falcons, he completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and punched in two touchdowns on the ground in the Saints’ victory.
On the other side of the most recent matchup between these teams, Matt Ryan struggled miserably, completing just 51% of his passes while throwing zero touchdowns and two interceptions (QBR – 48.5).
The Falcons have been playing much better football since their 0-5 start to the season, but no team has played better football than the Saints in recent weeks, who come into this game riding an 8-game winning streak, and two and a half of those wins coming with a backup quarterback.
I expect Matty Ice to fall victim to this ferocious New Orleans defense again this week. I’ll take the Saints -145 on the money line here.
The second leg of this parlay comes from Monday Night Football’s Bills-49ers matchup and I am electing to roll with the Bills in this game in what is shaping out to be close to a pick ‘em on the tail end of the week’s slate.
Kyle Shanahan’s team has been absolutely ravaged by injury and natural causes, with over a dozen players being placed on some type of IR, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle, and now his team being forced to host games in Arizona due to new California COVID-19 regulations.
The Niners are still one of the best coached groups in the league though, as they managed to pull off a thrilling upset and series sweep against the Rams last week (23-20), led by a monster day from Deebo Samuel who tallied 11 receptions for 133 yards.
But Buffalo, which is known for its high-powered offensive attack headed by Josh Allen, is finally beginning to put it together on the defensive side of the ball, now ranking 5th in the league in takeaways over its last three games (2.3) and holding red-hot rookie, Justin Herbert, to just 17 points last week.
I expect San Francisco to be able to move the ball on the ground early on Monday night, but if Nick Mullens finds himself in a shootout against bullet-slinger like Allen down the stretch of this contest, it is going to feel great having the Bills in your corner to close out this parlay.
Bills -120, on the money line.
NFL Week 13 Teaser Best Bets
- Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 at N.Y. Jets (-8.5)
- Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. N.Y. Giants (-10)
- Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs Denver Broncos (-13.5)
Payout: +113 at BetMGM
The Las Vegas Raiders undeniably played their worst game of the season so far last week, as Jon Gruden’s team got spanked by the Falcons, 43-6.
Las Vegas entered last week’s contest with Atlanta coming off three consecutive wins and another tightly contested game with the Kansas City Chiefs (L – 35-31), after handing Patrick Mahomes and company their only loss of the season the first time they matched up with them.
The Jets got back QB Sam Darnold from injury last week, but it appears he is still committed to his team’s effort in landing the first pick in next year’s draft (16-27 completions, 197 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT).
The Raiders’ success prior to last week was no fluke, I just believe they have been ravaged by a brutal schedule that has contained the Saints, Bills, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Kansas City twice so far and their record is not a good indication of the kind of football Las Vegas has played in 2020.
I do believe Las Vegas’ loss to the Falcons last week was a fluke though, and I expect Gruden to get his guys riled up for an emphatic bounce-back victory against a terrible Jets team in this contest.
Raiders -1.5 to get back on track against New York to comfortably open this teaser.
The current leaders of the NFC East, the New York Giants, will visit the leaders of the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks, on Sunday afternoon and the G-Men will possibly be playing without their quarterback, Daniel Jones, in this contest as the Duke-product left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and has failed to practice in any capacity since.
If Jones is unable to play on Sunday, that would leave New York’s quarterback duties to the 10-year veteran, Colt McCoy, who filled in at QB and completed 6 of 10 passes for 31 yards in the Giants victory over the Bengals last week (W – 19-7).
Although this is a matchup between two NFC division leaders, I still see this game as a lopsided matchup from top to bottom. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in points per game (31), 4th in passing yards (233.8), 5th in yards per play (6.1), and their defense is finally beginning to put things together after a horrid start to the season, mainly thanks to the return of All-Pro safety, Jamal Adams, from injury.
On the other hand, the Giants rank 30th in points per game (19.5), 28th in passing yards per game (200.5), 28th in yards per play (5), and there is a good chance a 34-year old, subpar, backup quarterback will be under-center for them this week against one of the top contenders is the NFC.
I expect this to be a very long, unpleasant cross-country road trip for the Giants. I’ll take Seattle -3 by a field goal in this game.
The Chiefs and the Broncos will have their second matchup of the season on Sunday and my goal for this game is to completely avoid overthinking.
In the first matchup between these teams, the Chiefs went to Denver and ran the Broncos out of their own building (43-16) on just 286 yards of total offense. Kansas City’s yardage stats were down in this game because they were rarely required to move the ball very far, which can mainly be attributed to the Chiefs 4 defensive takeaways in the contest.
Kansas City ranks 2nd in the NFL in points scored per game (31.6) and 6th in points allowed per game (21.6).
Denver ranks 31st in the NFL in points scored per game (19) and 24th in points allowed per game (27.1).
This game should be an old-fashioned beat down. Chiefs -6.5 to close out this teaser.
NFL Week 13 TD Prop Best Bets
Anytime Touchdown Props at BetMGM
(QB) Taysom Hill – New Orleans at Atlanta (-105)
During the 2-game absence of Brees, Hill has already managed to carry the ball 20 times for 93 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns as the Saints have cruised to two easy victories (Falcons and Broncos) behind a solid running game and stout defense.
Alvin Kamara is dealing with a minor foot injury that has landed him on the injury report in consecutive weeks, which has resulted in New Orleans turning to Hill and L. Murray to shoulder the bulk of the goal line touches.
Hill was able to find the endzone twice against Atlanta in his first career start a couple weeks ago. Back him to score another TD on the ground this week at nearly even odds (-105).
(TE) Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia at Green Bay (+225)
The Eagles’ have strung together a miserable streak of offensive performances over the last three weeks, but if there has been one bright spot, it has undeniably been the play of TE Dallas Goedert. Goedert was sprung into the premier pass catching role in the Philadelphia’s offense following the injury to Zach Ertz and has proven himself to be a very reliable target for Carson Wentz.
Ertz will likely return to play this week for Philadelphia, but I believe they will likely ease the veteran back into action after missing the club’s last five games.
Goedert has led Philadelphia’s pass catchers in receptions and receiving yards in back-to-back games now, while grabbing a TD in each of those contests. Back him to grab another TD pass at +225 odds in what should result in a shootout with the Packers.
(RB) Devontae Booker – Las Vegas at NY Jets
Unfortunately, my first wager on Josh Jacobs is off the board since head coach Jon Gruden announced the running back won't be traveling to New York.
this wager is not available anymore since Josh Jacobs won't be traveling to New York.
Since Jacobs is unable to go, keep an eye out for Devontae Booker TD props, as I suspect we would assume the goal line touches for the Raiders in that case.