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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM

Saturday's Best Bets

Don't miss out on expert NFL selections from Matt Blunt this season on VegasInsider.com. Click to Win!

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U

Split the board in last Saturday's double header, as Denver just couldn't hang with Buffalo's offense, and another December home game in Green Bay treated 'under' bettors well.

The shorter week by a day proved positive for both road teams in Week 15, and Week 16 has three teams out on the road looking to duplicate that ATS success.

Week 16 - Saturday's Action

Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET)
San Francisco at Arizona (4:30 p.m. ET)
Miami at Las Vegas (8:15 p.m. ET)

For Tampa Bay and Miami, that would mean outright wins as well, wins each franchise would love to have at this stage of the season.

Saturday's triple-header gives us one more game to break down on Saturday's card, but the goal remains a 2-0 sweep.

San Francisco at Arizona (Amazon, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Best Bet #1: Arizona -5

First of two line moves I'm going with as there is a little bit of buyer's remorse for not getting on either of them sooner. But motivation is a big question mark on the other side in both cases, and with the 49ers, with everything they've had to deal with this year, they are just looking for this season to get done.

San Francisco couldn't catch a break a year after nearly winning it all, so there isn't too much cause for concern about how far the core of this team can go. They can get a mulligan here with COVID, all the injuries, moving their home games, and moving games around in general, as I'm not sure how you can take them the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, Arizona now has their new tenants back in the visitor's locker room, and needs every win they can get to maintain that 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC. Against a disinterested bunch down numerous starters like the 49ers are, this is a game Arizona should handle with ease if they want to see their January football schedule last a long time.

The buyer's remorse here comes in knowing that picking off this spot as a bad one for the 49ers was an easy one to get to right off the bat, and if the number is still easily playable now, how comfortable are you sitting with Arizona on the opener.

If the Cardinals get beat in this type of spot, any playoff bid likely won't last long and you can just file that one in the memory bank for a later date.

Miami at Las Vegas (NFL Network, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet #2: Miami -3

The Raiders were a team who came up short in their make or break moment last week against the Chargers, as this is a football team that could be itching for fans more than most. A 10-year contract to Gruden also suggested that it wasn't going to be a quick fix in the relocation years, and there is plenty of good and plenty of room for improvement for the Raiders going forward.

But with no shot at meaningful football the rest of the way – barring tremendous help – and no lively Vegas crowds to bring any sort of energy, it's pack your bags time now in that Las Vegas locker room. Their starting quarterback is gone now too, so where is any sort of energy going to come from there? Don't want any part of those teams.

Miami's still got the Ravens breathing down their neck, and Baltimore has the Giants and Bengals to finish off the year; two games you can pencil in for Baltimore. So the Dolphins have to continue to have it, every week here against Las Vegas and then at Buffalo next week where the Bills could play a little “pick their own playoff opponent” depending on how things may shake out.

You have to at least get to that spot first though if you're the Dolphins, and it starts with beating this Raiders team. Miami's defense is still one of the best in the league in EPA/play this year (4th) and it's all got to start there for the Dolphins.

Offensively, the Dolphins still leave enough to be desired that Gruden could go play spoiler if he found some offensive success of his own, but there are just so many instances here where the Raiders are completely flat to me, that if it happens I tip my cap and move on.

The Dolphins have been winning these games they've been supposed to win all season long. They've got a great opportunity here to keep that going against a team that was basically just eliminated, and then take their chances with a Bills team that's already clinched and is more concerned with themselves. Not a bad way to roll into the playoffs if you're Miami and can grow your confidence along the way.

The Raiders continue to be awful at home this year, as last week's loss now puts them at 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in this brand new stadium – that's had no fans. Home field will be a much different thing for this franchise in the future, but there is no turning it around this year.

A 2020 with ups and downs for the Raiders ends with a loss in their final home game of the year.

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