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NFL

Nov 05, 2021

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9

The Raiders have had two franchise-shaking events happen within the last month, but handled each with resilience, winning and covering the spread in the immediate two games after Jon Gruden was fired for 10-year-old racist emails. Now they have to travel east to play the Giants in Week 9 in a 10 am PT start time in the aftermath of WR Henry Ruggs III killing 23-year-old Tina Tintor and her dog earlier in the week.

Ruggs was twice the legal drunk limit and plowed into her car at 156 mph. Uber and Lyft are free for NFL players. Uber and Lyft can get anyone almost anywhere in Las Vegas for $30. A day later, the Raiders released Ruggs who had been the 12th overall pick out of Alabama in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Ruggs was the fastest player on the Raiders and when he got the ball he made big plays and the Raiders usually won those games. Now he’s gone. Tina Tintor and her dog is also gone. It's a super sad story.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Ruggs is worth 1-point to the number.

Raiders QB Derek Carr has said all the right things representing the Raiders players in many interviews following the incident. He was also instrumental in leading his team to victory in both games since Gruden was fired. He said all the right things then, and he has now.

The public is rallying behind the Raiders this week making them the most popular choice in tickets written and parlays. They are a solid -3 -120 across the state with Circa Sports at -3.5 EVEN and the South Point at -3.5 flat because they only use flat numbers on spreads.

The South Point is also very telling on what’s about to come elsewhere. At -3 flat, it’s attractive to smart money. So far, +3.5 flat on the Giants hasn’t been attractive, so maybe we’ll see Raiders -4 before kickoff. Who knows, but almost everyone has the Raiders to cover against the Giants. It’s the No. 1 most popular side at the South Point, Station Casinos, SuperBook, and BetMGM, the Mt. Rushmore of sportsbooks in Las Vegas.

The Giants come off a short week losing 20-17 at Kansas City on Monday night, but they did cover +10.5. They beat the Panthers 25-3 before that. The Giants have gone 7-0-1 to the under in their last eight home games. Circa Sports has the total down to 46.5 after starting at 47.

The public weight is something to consider with the Raiders. It’s usually not a good thing. Last week, the top public supported teams were the Bengals and Buccaneers and both lost outright and the sportsbooks made millions. But if thinking the Raiders are the right side regardless of being the most popular, there’s comfort in knowing wise guys aren’t betting the Giants, yet.

Raiders TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs are both expected to play this week.

The wise guys have been hitting the same games around Nevada sportsbooks. Marc Nelson’s Atlantis sportsbook in Reno has taken sharp action on the Browns and Eagles. Chris Andrews at the South Points says it’s the Panthers, Eagles, and 49ers. Jeff Stoneback at BetMGM says their sharps bet the Texans, Eagles, and 49ers, and Jason McCormick of Station Casinos says their sharps took the Texans, Eagles, and Broncos.

Tyrod Taylor is expected to start at QB for the Texans at Miami and the spread has dropped from the Dolphins -7.5 down to -5 at Circa Sports. Both teams are 1-7 but it’s the Texans that are 4-4 ATS. The Dolphins are 0-3 at home.

Wiseguys used to love the Chargers, but this is the second straight bet they’re betting against them. This week it’s the Eagles and they took +2.5 down to +1.5. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven November games. They’ve also lost their last two in October. The Eagles come off a 44-6 win at Detroit.

The Cardinals have QB Kyler Murray banged up as well as both starting WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. Green is out Sunday at the 49ers and both Hopkins and Murray are questionable. Backup QB Colt McCoy got all the first-team snaps in practice this week.

The SuperBook opened Arizona -2.5 in their Sunday opening numbers and dropped down the ladder on Wednesday to pick’em and by Thursday were at 49ers -2.5 where it sits as of Friday. It sure looks like the sharps believe Murray won’t play and the books are moving quickly to the right number. Wait for more news on Murray. The Cardinals beat the 49ers in Glendale last month, 17-10, covering -6 and staying under (48.5) for the third straight meeting.

The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting QB to snap the 49ers four-game slide. The Cardinals have covered their last four road games.

The Browns were found attractive at +3 by the sharps for their road game at Cincinnati. The Bengals are now -2.5. The Browns have lost three of their last four and QB Baker Mayfield has a banged-up non-throwing shoulder. The 15-10 home loss to the hated Steelers was hard for Browns fans to watch. Browns RB Kareem Hunt is still out.

The Bengals just lost to the Jets and allowed a first-time starting QB Mike White to throw for over 400 yards. The Browns just released WR Odell Beckham Jr. on Friday and the line didn’t blink because Beckham’s value to anything is zero.

It’s possible the Browns might play better without Beckham complaining all the time. The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Bengals but the Bengals have covered the last three meetings. The last seven meetings have gone over the total. It’s been bet up from 46.5 to 47.5 at Circa Sports.

The Cowboys are a steady 10-point home favorite across Nevada sportsbooks as they welcome the Broncos. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is expected to start. Station books to sharp action on the Broncos, but the public is betting their Cowboys again.

They’re either No. 3 or No. 3 in ticket counts this week. The Broncos started out 3-0, lost their next four and won last week 17-10 at home against Washington. One other huge reason the public is all over the Cowboys is they are a perfect 7-0 ATS. They’ve been the betting public’s most trusted and reliable team this season. It’s almost like it isn’t gambling when taking the automatic cover machine.

But they haven’t seen a double-digit spread since getting +10 at Tampa Bay in Week 1. Their biggest spread favored by was -7.5 at home against the Giants in Week 5.

So we’ve got the Raiders as the public’s No. 1 selection, then they jumped on the 7-0 ATS Cowboys, and they also love the Rams this week at home against the Titans who will be with RB Derrick Henry for the rest of the season.

The Rams are 7-1 but only 4-4 ATS while the Titans are 6-2 SU and ATS. They’ve been great on the road at 3-1 because a great running game travels well. The SuperBook lookahead number had the Rams -4 and when they re-opened the game on Sunday night they opened -6.5 and were pushed to -7 on Monday.

The question we all have with the Titans is whether QB Ryan Tannehill can be as effective in play-action without the threat of Henry. No need to stack the defensive line now to defend Henry, now drop more defenders to stop the passing game. The total has been bet up from 52 to 53 after briefly being at 54.

The most surprising betting being done this week is on the strip at BetMGM books where they’re betting the Packers at Kansas City as if Aaron Rodgers isn’t out with COVID-19.

“They love the Packers this week,” BetMGM’s Stoneback said. “They have the second most tickets bet with us behind the Raiders.”

Jordan Love will make his first start for the Packers, but it’s possible the tourists just hate the Chiefs more. The Packers are 7-1 SU and ATS, but the 4-4 Chiefs are just 2-6 ATS. The Chiefs were the public favorites every week for the last three years, but the public has turned on them for obvious reasons.

The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -2.5 on Monday morning and bettors jumped on the Packers to push it down to Chiefs -1 on Tuesday. Rodgers news broke on Wednesday and the SuperBook moved immediately to Chiefs -7.5 and it settled at -7.

That’s all I got for Week 9, have a great weekend!

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