Total Talk – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

We're hurtling toward Week 11 of the NFL regular season,

Division Over-Under Notes

The OVER/UNDER went 2-2 in the four NFL Divisional battles in Week 10. We have four more divisional matchups on tap for Sunday. 

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers offense was sluggish in Week 10 against the visiting Seattle Seahawks. It was just 3-0 in favor of the Pack heading to the fourth quarter, as defense ruled the day. QB Aaron Rodgers made it back from the reserve/COVID list, but was rusty, as expected, after not having practiced all week. In fact, he produced no touchdowns through the air, with RB AJ Dillon picking up the slack with two rushing scores in the fourth quarter for the injured RB Aaron Jones.

The Pack have cashed the UNDER in seven consecutive games, with the offense averaging just 12.0 PPG in the previous two outings. More importantly, the defense has been on fire with 0, 13, 21, 10, 14, 22 and 17 allowed in the previous seven games. Green Bay is yielding just 309.9 total yards per game, 202.7 passing yards per game and 18.0 PPG, and all three marks rank third in the NFL. You'll hear all about Rodgers and the offense in the headlines, but it's the defense which is driving this team to repeated UNDER results.

The Vikings cashed the UNDER in a road win against the Chargers, 27-20 on a number of 53.5. The UNDER is 5-2 across the past seven for the Vikings, allowing 20 or fewer points in five of the past seven.

The UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings in this series, with the UNDER 6-1 in the past seven meetings in the Twin Cities.

Houston at Tennessee: Houston heads into Sunday's game after a bye. We'll see if the rest helped them rediscover how to score. The Texans have hgad five single-digit scoring performances in the past seven outings, posting 9, 22, 5, 3, 22, 0 and 9 during the stretch. It's no surprise the UNDER is 5-2 across the past seven outings for the Texans.

The Titans have alternated OVER and UNDER results across the past five games. The Texans have scored 23 or more points in nine straight games, and the loss of RB Derrick Henry has caused minimal issue. The Tennessee offense is averaging 25.5 PPG in two games without Henry, while scoring 28.4 PPG with Henry in the backfield.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the past four road games for the Texans, while going 7-2 in the past nine against teams with a winning overall record. For the Titans, it's been all OVER all the time. The OVER is 8-2 across Tennessee's past 10 inside the division, while going 11-2 in the previous 13 against teams with a losing mark, which the Texans easily qualify. The UNDER has cashed in four of the past five meetings in Nashville.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The Dolphins have managed just 50 total points, or 16.7 PPG across the past three outings. In their two-game win streak, defense has steered the ship to two UNDER results, allowing just 9 to Houston, and 10 to Baltimore. The UNDER has hit in three in a row for the Dolphins, and four of the past five.

The Jets have allowed 45 or more points in three of the past four games. They're the first team since the 1966 New York Giants to allowed 45 or more points three times in a four-game span. It's no surprise the OVER has been a frequent happening for Gang Green, hitting in six consecutive games after the UNDER opened 3-0 in the first three contests.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Miami's past seven games inside the division, while going 9-4 in its past 13 as a favorite. While the Jets have crushed the OVER lately, is that run coming to an end? The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 in the past four battles in the Meadowlands.

Arizona at Seattle: The Cardinals and Seahawks square off for the first time this season. Arizona has allowed 25.5 PPG across the past two games, hitting the OVER in each, including a divisional battle in San Francisco in Week 9. The OVER is 2-1 in three divisional games to date for the Cards.

The Seahawks posted a goose egg last week in Green Bay, the first time the team has been shut out with QB Russell Wilson under center. In fact, it was the first time the Seahawks have have been shut out since Sept. 18, 2011, a 24-0 loss on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Seattle has the longest active streak of UNDER results in the NFL, cashing in seven consecutive games, while posting an 8-1 UNDER mark in nine games overall. The defense has been much better lately, allowing just 17, 7 and 13, contributing to the low totals.

Total bettors will love the following trends. The UNDER is 7-0 in the past seven for the Cardinals as a road favorite, while going 10-3 in the past 13 games on the road. For the Seahawks, it's not just a small-sample trend. The UNDER is 15-3 in the past 18 games overall dating back to last season. The UNDER is also 7-2 in the past nine games at Lumen Field, while going 5-2 in the previous seven inside the division, including 2-0 this season. The UNDER is also 3-1 in the past four meetings in this season.

Non-Conference Angles

Week 10 featured four non-conference matchups and the UNDER went 3-1.

We have five more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 11 schedule, including the Thursday night game.

 New England at Atlanta (Thu.): The Patriots offense has been hot lately, with QB Mac Jones really coming into his own and looking more comfortable. The Patriots have posted 45, 24, 27, 54, 29 and 25 across the past six, with the OVER 5-1 during the impressive span. The defense has allowed a total of 13 points in the past two games. New England has posted OVER totals in the past two against NFC teams after going 2-0 to the UNDER in the first two against the NFC.

The Falcons were able to muster just a field goal, it's lowest total of the season, and first single-digit point total since losing 32-6 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. The UNDER has hit in two of the past three games for the Falcons, although the OVER is 2-0 in two games against the AFC this season.

Baltimore at Chicago: The Ravens turned in a season-low 10 points in Miami on Thursday night in Week 10. The team's previous low was 17 in Week 7, a game which saw them allowed 41 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore's defense has struggled a bit in the past three outings, yielding 22, 31 and 41. 

The Ravens hit the OVER in their most recent matchup against an NFC team, a 34-31 overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings. The UNDER cashed in Week 3 at Detroit, however, the only other game against an NFC team.

QB Justin Fields has struggled so far this season, but he looked like a functional NFL quarterback, posting a career-high 291 passing yards in Pittsburgh in Week 9 prior to the team's bye. The 27 points scored was also a season high, and the Bears are averaging a respectable 24.5 PPG in the past two, both OVER results. The defense has also allowed 31.0 PPG. The UNDER is still 3-1 in Chicago's past four games this season against AFC opponents.

San Francisco at Jacksonville: The 49ers surprised the Rams on Monday Night Football, posting 31 or more points for the second time in the past three games. The 10 points allowed in Week 10 was a season low for the 49ers defense, too. The UNDER was the first since Week 5 for the Niners.

The Jaguars have cashed the UNDER in four consecutive games, going for just 17, 9, 7 and 23 during the four-game span. The defense has stepped up its effort, yielding just 23, 9, 31 and 20. It's not great, but the defense has at least been solid. Jacksonville has cashed the UNDER in seven of the past eight games overall, going 3-1 in the past four true home games, as well as its "home" game in London in Week 6.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in San Francisco's past eight as a road favorite, while going 9-4 in the past 13 against teams with a losing overall record. For the Jaguars, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five at TIAA Bank Stadium, while hitting in each of the past four as an underdog.

Detroit at Cleveland: The Lions scratched out a 16-16 tie in Pittsburgh, as the offense continues to struggle putting points on the board. That's 16, 6, 19, 11, 17, 14, 17 and 17 across the past eight games. With that kind of production, or lack thereof, it's no shock that the UNDER is 6-1 across the past seven outings. The 16 points allowed was a season low, and it helped that QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Chase Claypool were out due to illness or injury.

The Browns were drummed in Foxboro by the Patriots, falling 45-7, hitting single digits for the first time this season. The 45 points allowed was the second-highest amount allowed, and it's the fourth time in 10 games Cleveland has allowed 33 or more points. The OVER has cashed in two straight. More importantly, the UNDER is 2-1 in Cleveland's three games against NFC teams, including 2-0 against the NFC North Division.

Dallas at Kansas City: The Cowboys rebounded last week with 43 points, it's fifth time going for 35 or more points in the past seven games - six if you subtract the game QB Dak Prescott missed in Minnesota on Halloween night.

Speaking of bouncing back, the Chiefs offense finally looked like what we've grown accustomed to seeing in recent seasons. QB Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns and the Kansas City offense piled up 422 passing yards, 516 total yards and 41 points in an OVER result at Las Vegas on Sunday night in Week 10. That OVER slapped the brakes on a 4-0 UNDER run for the Chiefs. It wasn't a season high, however, as K.C. posted 42 points in a game at Philadelphia, also an OVER result. That's the only OVER in four previous games against the NFC oppoent this season, however.

Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 10. The UNDER has produced a 14-13-1 (48.1%) clip in 28 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers meet

Monday Night Football Notes

The New York Giants-Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off

Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were so-so at 2-2 (+15), but hey, it's not a losing week. That's a season total of (+450). Let's start building that bankroll for Week 11 and down the stretch.

• Best Over: Over 
• Best Under: Under 
• Best First-Half Total: Over 

• Under 
• Under 
• Under 

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VegasInsider Staff

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