Betting Recap – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Rams +3 (ML +150) at Cardinals, 30-23
• Falcons +2.5 (ML +120) at Panthers, 29-21

The largest favorites to cover

• Broncos (-12.5) vs. Lions, 38-10
• Packers (-12) vs. Bears, 45-30 (SNF)
• Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders, 48-9
• Seahawks (-9.5) at Texans, 33-13
• Chargers (-9) vs. Giants, 37-21
• Titans (-8.5) vs. Jaguars, 20-0

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

Wow, the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team game was nerve-wracking for everyone involved. The line was Cowboys -6.5 with a total of 48. If you were laying the points with the Cowboys, you were feeling good about things at halftime, with Dallas up 24-0.

QB Taylor Heinicke (knee), who was later knocked out of the game, hit WR Cam Sims on a 43-yard strike to the left corner of the end zone. After a lengthy review, the WFT was on the board, and Heinicke had the two-point conversion to make it 24-8. Dallas picked up a field goal from PK Greg Zuerlein from 29 yards out, and WFT was down 27-8 going to the fourth quarter.

That's how it stayed late into the fourth quarter, and then things tightened up for everybody. Jonathan Williams punched in a 1-yard run and the conversion failed. It was 27-14, and UNDER (48) were still in good shape. On the ensuing possession, LB Cole Holcomb stepped in front of a QB Dak Prescott pass intended for TE Dalton Schultz, and it was 27-20 in favor of the Cowboys. They blocked the PAT for PK Brian Johnson, however.

UNDER bettors were hanging on for now. And, if you had a WFT +6.5 ticket, you were incensed. Dallas got the ball back deep in Washington territory later on. At the two-minute warning, they were into the red zone, but elected to get into Victory Formation. UNDER bettors hung on and Dallas bettors dodged a bullet. So did head coach Mike McCarthy, who had guaranteed a win earlier in the week.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (-3, 44) was a tale of two halves. The Ravens lost QB Lamar Jackson to an ankle injury early, so anyone holding a Ravens (+3) ticket was getting ready to tear it up. QB Tyler Huntley had other ideas.

Well, the Browns did take a 24-3 lead late in the second quarter. The Ravens picked up a field to close out the half, going to the break down 24-6.

It was a slow go in the third, as the Ravens managed just a field goal. But the Browns were playing ultra-conservative, even resting QB Baker Mayfield for a series with a lead of more than two scores. But the Ravens kept coming.

QB Latavius Murray punched one in from a yard out, and the Ravens closed to within 24-15. The Ravens kept coming. TE Mark Andrews hauled in an 8-yard touchdown with 77 seconds left in regulation, and Baltimore closed it to within 24-22. That flipped the total to an OVER, and gave the Ravens a cover.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

The game of the day might have been the San Francisco 49ers (-2, 49)-Cincinnati Bengals contest. The 49ers fired out to a 20-6 lead heading to the fourth quarter, but QB Joe Burrow hit WR Ja'Marr Chase for not one, but two touchdown strikes in the fourth quarter to send it to overtime. 49ers ticket holders were bent out of shape, Bengals money line and side bettors were feeling a little better, and UNDER bettors were absolutely sick, while OVER bettors were still alive.

The Bengals managed a 41-yard field goal with 6:15 to go in the extra session, taking a 23-20 lead. If the 49ers were to tie with a field goal, the game would continue. If the Bengals were to get the ball back, game over. Neither of those things happened. WR Brandon Aiyuk had a 12-yard touchdown grab, which was upheld by replay, as the 49ers won 26-23. Total bettors at most shops pushed, while some held a 49.5 ticket and still hit the UNDER.

But those holding a Bengals +2 ticket were the angriest, as with the old OT rules, they would have won.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 14 was the Seattle Seahawks-Houston Texans (41) game. It was a pretty good game early on, as the Seahawks took a 16-13 lead to halftime despite a 61-yard no-doubt field goal from PK Ka'imi Fairbairn. The Texans wouldn't score again. With just 32 points on the board midway through the fourth quarter, QB Russell Wilson hit TE Gerald Everett for a 1-yard touchdown, and the two-point conversion made it 27-13. The Seahawks got the ball back quickly, and RB Rashaad Penny ripped off a 47-yard touchdown run to flip the total result to an OVER.

The second-lowest total on the board was the NFC South battle of 5-7 teams, the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (41.5). We had a total of 24 points on the board at half, aided by a pick-six of QB Cam Newton, who was benched briefly. He returned, but it was too little and too late. The Falcons hit a 3-yard TD to TE Hayden Hurst early in the fourth quarter to make it 26-14. We didn't have another score until PK Younghoe Koo hit a 48-yard field goal at 6:10 to go OVER.

On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 14 was in the Buffalo Bills-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (53) game. It was a one-sided affair for a bit, with the Bucs up 24-3 at halftime. The Bills chipped away at a 17-point deficit with just over nine minutes to go to force overtime. A PK Tyler Bass field with 25 seconds left to send it to OT also sent UNDER bettors to the trash bin for their ticket.

In the primetime games, the OVER was a perfect 3-0, with the MNF game between the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals inching OVER. The UNDER is still 9-4 across the past 13 primetime games. The UNDER is now 22-17-1 (56.4%) through 40 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys (9-4) held on for the win and cover in Washington in Week 14, while the Giants (4-9) were thumped 37-21 at L.A. Chargers. The last time these teams met in Week 5 in Arlington, the Cowboys came away with a 44-20 win as 7.5-point favorites as the OVER connected.

The Cowboys have cashed in six of the past seven on the road, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five inside the NFC East. The 'Boys are also 7-2 ATS in the past nine as a favorite.

For the G-Men, they have actually covered six of the past seven inside the division, but they're just 9-20-1 ATS in the past 30 at home, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. Dallas has covered seven of the past nine meetings in this series, while the OVER has hit in five of the past six meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks (5-8) were looking like cadavers in the NFC, sitting 3-8 before last weekend. But Seattle has shown some pride with back-to-back wins, keeping hope of a winning season alive still.

The last time these teams met in Week 5, the Rams picked up a 26-17 win in Los Angeles as 2.5-point favorites. The UNDER cashed, and that had been a frequent occurrence until the two-game win streak. Seattle is averaging 31.5 PPG in the past two games, both OVER results, following a 9-0 UNDER run.

The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, while going 2-7 ATS in the past nine meetings in Los Angeles. The UNDER is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Saints (6-7) picked up 36-27 win on Halloween in a game which saw them lose QB Jameis Winston (knee) for the season due to a torn ACL. Until Sunday on the road against the New York Jets, the Saints hadn't won. New Orleans earned a 30-9 win as 4.5-point favorites against the Jets, as the UNDER cashed for the third straight outing.

The Buccaneers (10-3) have won and covered four straight games, going for at least 30 points in each game. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in the past five divisional matchups, while going 5-0 ATS in the past five games at home.

The Saints are 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning record, but there is something about the Bucs that gets them going. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings with Tampa. The UNDER is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings at the RayJay, too.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Vikings (6-7) and Bears (4-9) meet up on Monday night at Soldier Field. Minnesota kept its playoff hopes alive with a 36-28 win on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers, snapping a two-game losing and non-cover skid. The OVER has hit in four consecutive outings for the Vikes.

The Bears are playing a second straight primetime game, for whatever reason. Chicago was humbled 45-30 at Green Bay on SNF in Week 14, hitting the OVER. It also hit the OVER in a Monday nighter in Pittsburgh, so the Bears are averaging 28.5 PPG in two games under the lights. 

This is the first of two meetings in the final four games for both teams. Remember, QB Kirk Cousins struggles on Monday nighters, and the Vikings are 3-12 ATS in the past 15 appearances on MNF. Surprisingly, Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the past seven MNF appearances.

In this series, Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Soldier Field.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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