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Sep 29, 2021

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 3, 2021
Joe Williams
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Baltimore Ravens (2-1) and Denver Broncos (3-0) meet at Empower Field at Mile High in a marquee game in the late window on Sunday. How many people predicted that the Broncos would be unbeaten and have a better record than the Ravens at this juncture? We'll get a good idea about how for real Denver is in their first real test of the season. Meanwhile, the Ravens are flying high after NFL history was made it their last victory in Detroit.

Score Prediction: Ravens 29, Broncos 23

Best Bet: Ravens ML -105

Best Bet: Over 45

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Predictions

As mentioned above, the Ravens needed NFL history to top the Lions last week at Ford Field, and the finish didn't come without controversy. They converted a 4th and 17 to keep play alive. Heading into the next play, prior to an incomplete pass, the telecast showed the play clock appeared to expire. This should have moved the Ravens back five yards. Instead, they were just close enough to attempt a 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker. This is where the history came in, as he hit the longest ever field in an NFL game, as he took an extra jump step prior to hitting one off the top of the crossbar and in. Baltimore escaped with a 19-17 win, and Detroit was left being very sour.

The Broncos enter not only 3-0 SU, but they're a perfect 3-0 ATS with three UNDER results as well. That's because they dominated the New York Giants 27-13 on the road, topped the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-13 on the road, then blanked the New York Jets 26-0 in the home opener to cover as double-digit favorites. But that's not exactly a murderer's row, and the Ravens easily present the biggest test of the season. I don't think Denver's defense will be able to contain the likes of Lamar Jackson, who should run wild. And, if it comes down to it, how far would Tucker be good from in the rarefied air of the Mile High City if his number is called late?

Look for the Ravens, who are still a bona fide Super Bowl contender out of the rough and tumble AFC North, to give the Broncos a little dose of reality. Beating the Ravens could give the Broncos some legitimacy after knocking around three tomato cans, but I still think this Denver team is a work in progress, and not the contender its record seems to suggest.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
  • Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET



Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-1
  • ATS: 1-2
  • O/U: 2-1
  • ATS - Home: 1-0
  • ATS - Away: 0-2

The Ravens have already taken part in two marquee games, losing to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night in Week 1, in the first game in front of fans at Allegiant Stadium, and in a Week 2 thriller at home on Sunday Night Football against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. That Raiders game ended up going to overtime, and didn't go the way the Ravens had hoped. But it was a good battle, and great experience. And the Chiefs came saw the Ravens down 35-24 at home heading into the fourth quarter before Jackson led a furious comeback. These are the type experiences while build championship mettle, and it's something that is just missing from the Broncos. It's no fault of their own, as you can only play the teams in front of you. But Baltimore has just been tested more, and it will pay off here.

The Ravens rank fourth in the NFL with 424.7 total yards per game, and, as you would expect with No. 8 under center, they're doing great things on the ground. It was all doom and gloom when both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards went down with long-term knee injuries prior to the season. While Ty'Son Williams and newcomer Latavius Murray have done well in the traditional tailback role, Jackson has gone above and beyond to help the run game, too. He actually leads the team with 251 rushing yards, and his two scores on the ground are tied with Murray for the top spot. Jackson's passing numbers are just so-so, completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 761 yards, three touchdowns and three picks. That's not why the fans and broadcasters gush about him, though. It's those ankle-breaking runs that tie defenses in knots.

The Baltimore defense has been surprisingly subpar, especially against the pass. Of course, they did face Mahomes, and with a small sample size, those stats can be a bit misleading. They have allowed 393.7 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're 30th against the pass with 314.7 yards per game allowed. Of course, Carr went off on them in Week 1, and Mahomes added to the numbers. They'll start to come down a little, although the back end isn't as good as years past.

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-0
  • ATS: 3-0
  • O/U: 0-3
  • ATS - Home: 1-0
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

The Broncos are unbeaten, and the schedule maker might have a little to do with that. But that shouldn't take away from their excellent start. A 3-0 record is 3-0, and in the NFL, regardless of competition, it's an impressive feat. And bettors have gone to the window and gladly cashed those tickets.

As expected when they added QB Teddy Bridgewater, this would be a little bit of a conservative offense with occasional pop. But this offense has the likes of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to pound out the tough yards, with big-time playmakers on the outside available if needed. They rank seventh in rushing yards per game at 127.3, but again, the Giants, Jaguars and Jets have exactly offered a lot of resistance. The Ravens are solid up front, it's the back end where these Broncos could expose the visitors.

Unfortunately for Denver, they'll be missing two key members. WR Jerry Jeudy is out until at least late October due to a leg injury, and WR KJ Hamler joined him after a Week 3 knee injury. That means Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick will have to do the heavy lifting in the pass game, with TE Noah Fant there on the short to intermediate stuff. So we might actually see the Broncos try to run even more.

While the Broncos are 3-0 ATS, including Week 3 as a home favorite, they're still just 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 as a fave at Mile High. And remember, the Ravens are 6-1 ATS in the past seven as an underdog, a role they seem to relish.

Inside the Stats - Baltimore Ravens

  • Record:
  • Division Standing:
  • Points Scored:
  • Points Allowed:
  • PS/G:
  • PA/G:

Inside the Stats - Denver Broncos

  • Record:
  • Division Standing:
  • Points Scored:
  • Points Allowed:
  • PS/G:
  • PA/G:

Key Players to Watch

  • BAL: TBD
  • BAL: TBD
  • DEN: TBD
  • DEN: TBD

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Betting Conclusion

The Ravens probably should be 1-2 heading into this game, but you take what is given to you. Tucker still had to make a historic kick to win it. Money line bettors of the Lions last week are probably still quite salty, but that's neither here nor there. Make up for it by taking the short 'dog Ravens on the road against a team which is unbeaten, but should clearly be the underdog.

The Broncos have a great run game, yes, and the defense has looked good against some lesser foes. But the true test is facing Jackson, and if they can shut him down and make him look ordinary, they will earn some credibility. I don't think that's happening, however. I think No. 8 runs wild, Baltimore builds a little bit of a lead in the second half, and the Broncos struggle to find playmakers to keep pace. The one surprise here will be the first OVER result for the Broncos against three UNDER results to start.

Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, 7-2 ATS in the past nine as a road underdog and 6-1 ATS in the past seven as an underdog. They're not new to this role, but they excel in it. Look for another road win for the black and purple.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends

  • TBD


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