Last Updated Oct 08, 2021, 11:00 AM

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 10, 2021
Joe Williams
VI Betting Expert

The Denver Broncos (3-1) hit the road for a Week 5 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) Sunday at Heinz Field in the Steel City. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, and the game is televised on CBS.

Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Broncos 13

Best Bet: Pittsburgh ML

Best Bet: Under 39.5

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

The Broncos suffered their first loss of the season against another AFC North Division team, the Baltimore Ravens, at Empower Field at Mile High last weekend. Denver fell 23-7, and never were really able to get anything going. They posted just 106 rushing yards and 148 passing yards. To make matters worse, they lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to concussion. While Bridgewater did not practice Wednesday, he at least returned to team meetings and the weight room, as he progresses through the protocol.

The Steelers were dumped 27-17 on the road against the Green Bay Packers, and aging QB Ben Roethlisberger looked very ordinary and slow yet again. The future Hall of Famer did make history with his 400th touchdown strike, joining an elite NFL club, but he is also reportedly battling hip and pectoral injuries, and he might be a bit limited heading into Week 5.

We could have a Bridgewater-Big Ben matchup, but we could also have a Drew Lock-Mason Rudolph battle, or some combination of the four signal callers.

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

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Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC West vs. AFC North
  • Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
  • Venue: Heinz Field
  • Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 3-1
  • O/U: 0-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

The seven points posted by the Denver offense was easily a season low, as they have 27, 23 and 26 in the first three outings. The 23 points allowed were also a season high, as the defense has pitched a shutout in the 26-0 win over the New York Jets in Week 3, while yielding 13 points in each of the first two games.

One thing which has been very consistent for the Broncos, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 for the Broncos so far. The Broncos and Steelers are two of just four NFL teams to hit the UNDER in each outing this season.

There is an interesting trend involving the Broncos, if you put stock in those type of things. Denver is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the previous eight outings after scoring less than 15 points in their previous outing. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall, and 4-1 ATS in the past five on the road, too.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-3
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 0-4
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

As mentioned, Roethlisberger has been a shell of his former self. He has thrown for 1,033 yards, which isn’t horrible, but he has just four touchdowns and four interceptions, and he is struggling to whip it down the field. To make matters worse for the Steelers, WRs Chase Claypool (hamstring) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs) are dealing with injuries which make them question marks for Sunday.

The Steelers offense has had a hard time getting it going on the ground, as rookie Najee Harris hasn’t been exactly what the doctored ordered. That has made the offense a bit one- dimensional and predictable, which has not helped Big Ben. Pittsburgh has averaged just 301.8 total yards per game, good for 27th in the NFL, and they’re dead-last with just 55.3 rushing yards per contest. These aren’t your Grandfather’s Steelers, that’s for sure.

On defense, the Steelers are so-so, allowing 357.8 total yards per game to rank 16th, and they have been decent against the run with just 99.0 rushing yards per game allowed. Overall, they have given up 23.3 PPG, good for 13 th in the NFL, and you can likely expect a low-scoring battle here.

Inside the Stats - Denver Broncos

  • Record: 3-1
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 83
  • Points Allowed: 49
  • PS/G: 20.8 (21st)
  • PA/G: 12.3 (2nd)

Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Record: 1-3
  • Division Standing: 4th - AFC North
  • Points Scored: 67
  • Points Allowed: 93
  • PS/G: 16.8 (28th)
  • PA/G: 23.3 (14th)

Key Players to Watch

  • DEN: Melvin Gordon - RB (51 carries, 248 yards, 2 TD)
  • DEN: Courtland Sutton - WR (18 catches, 257 yards)
  • PIT: Najee Harris - RB (55 carries, 185 yards, TD)
  • PIT: Cameron Hayward - DL (24 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FR, 1 FF, 3 PD)

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Conclusion

There is a little uncertainty given the health of the quarterbacks and some key skill position players. We’ve seen the UNDER connected in all four games for both teams, and we’re likely to see the defenses reign supreme in the Steel City whether Bridgewater and/or Roethlisberger are available or not.

While we have seen the OVER go 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in this series, trends like that can mostly be avoided. The personnel on each side is much different than the last time these teams met, as is the roster construction of each squad. The Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings, which also can be tossed out. The Steelers are home, and they’re desperate for a win. They’ll get it, or it will really be panic time amongst the Yinzers.

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six games.
  • Denver has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing Pittsburgh.
  • Denver has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games.

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