Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Oct. 17, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI American Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An AFC South showdown on Sunday sees the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans, with both teams trying to turn their seasons around. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Score Prediction

Colts 23, Texans 16

Best Bets

Texans +10.5

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

The Texans are coming into this week in the midst of a four-game looking streak after their Week 1 win against the Jaguars. The Colts are also coming into this game with only one win, taking down the Dolphins two weeks ago. Whether 15 people tune in, or 10 million, there is still money to be made this week.

There is absolutely no possible way I'm betting the Colts at such a large number. The Texans aren't great, but these two teams are coming in with 1-4 records and the Colts haven't shown me anything that would make me even consider betting this team to cover more than a touchdown. I don't like betting on teams like the Texans, but the simple line value is enough for me here.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC South
• Date: Sunday, October 17, 2021
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-4
• ATS: 3-2
• O/U: 3-2
• ATS - Home: 2-1
• ATS - Away: 1-1

I really liked what I saw from the Week 1 Texans but the loss of Tyrod Taylor really hurt them. While Davis Mills is someone I haven’t been kind to this season, he did have his best career game last week and will look to build on it. They are coming in off a great game against the Patriots but will need to build off that momentum to keep this matchup competitive.

The offense showed sights of life for the first time of the season with Mills throwing for over 200 yards of the first time. While Brandin Cooks has a quiet game, I would expect that to last for a very long time. The running game is stuck with a three headed monster including, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Mark Ingram.

This unit hasn’t been very effective this season and I expect the running game to continue to struggle. On defense there isn’t much to say, this team has gotten burned both through the air and on the ground. I expect the Colts to have an above average game on offense.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-4
• ATS: 3-2
• O/U: 3-2
• ATS - Home: 1-1
• ATS - Away: 2-1

Carson Wentz came into the season as one of the more popular most improved candidates but has not quite lived up to expectation. While he isn’t leading the league in turnovers, like last season, he still has a lot of the same problems. While he doesn’t lead the league he still does have a bit of a turnover problem and he still holds the ball for far to long.

Beyond him this offense does have a couple strong pieces. At running back, Jonathan Taylor has been strong this season. While he isn’t getting the touches I think he deserves he is still playing very well. Pittman has been someone that has surprised a lot of people this season, he can play both outside and in the slot had been there leading receiving threat beyond that. I would say this offense is closer to the bottom half of the league but the Texans defense isn’t something to be scared off.

The defense has been getting absolutely rocked the last couple weeks and I would expect it to continue. There secondary is very injured and are very susceptible to the deep ball. There run defense should be solid but that’s not the Texans strength, decent matchup to watch out for.

The Indianapolis Colts have won 16 of their last 19 home games when facing the Houston Texans. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Houston Texans

• Record: 1-4
• Division Standing: 2nd - AFC South
• Points Scored: 89
• Points Allowed: 141
• PS/G: 17.8 (29th)
• PA/G: 28.2 (27th)

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

• Record: 1-4
• Division Standing: 2nd - AFC South
• Points Scored: 108
• Points Allowed: 128
• PS/G: 21.6 (21st)
• PA/G: 25.6 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

• HOU: Brandin Cooks - WR (31 catches, 392 yards, TD)
• HOU: Davis Mills - QB (59/96, 669 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT)
• IND: Carson Wentz - QB (113/173, 1,322 yards, 7 TD, INT)
• IND: Jonathan Taylor - RB (73 carries, 327 yards, 2 TD)

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Conclusion

For player props, there aren’t a lot of options in this game so far. I think the most intriguing spot is probably Davis Mills passing yards. I think he should continue to have some momentum from last week, and that Colts secondary is terrible. Books don’t trust Mills, but the bar is already set super low. It seems to be a good play for the predicted game script if you're uneasy on trusting the Texans to cover the spread.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

• Houston has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games.
• Houston has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 12 road games.
• Indianapolis has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games.
• Indianapolis has gone OVER the point total in four of its last six games.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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