Last Updated Nov 17, 2021, 10:00 AM

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 18, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

The eleventh week of regular-season NFL action will kick things off with a compelling non-conference matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. Coverage begins at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX.

Score Prediction

Patriots 24, Falcons 18

Best Bets


New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

After selecting former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones in the first round of the latest draft, New England stumbled out to a lackluster start with its new young signal-caller at the helm, considering the Patriots entered Week 5 at an underwhelming 1-3 mark – with New England’s lone victory across that span coming against the Jets.

The Patriots have completely turned things around since their bumpy start though, considering New England enters Thursday’s contest following wins in five of the last six games – which includes impressive victories over the Chargers, Panthers, and Browns.

On the other hand, Atlanta also sputtered out to an incredibly disappointing start, as the Falcons kicked off the year with a pair of ugly 20-point losses to the Falcons and Eagles in Weeks 1 and 2 (-49).

Since their worrisome start though, the Falcons have gradually returned to a satisfyingly pedestrian level of play, considering Atlanta enters Thursday’s contest boasting a 4-3 record SU and ATS across the last seven games – despite being favored in just three of those matchups.

I’ll take the under here, as New England generated 49.5 PPG across a pair of blowout victories over the Jets and Browns. Aside from those two matchups though, the Patriots have averaged just 22 PPG on 319 YPG this season – but I still think they’ll take down Atlanta in a low-scoring battle on Thursday night.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

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New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. NFC South
  • Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • TV-Time: FOX/NFLN - 8:20 p.m. ET

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-4
  • ATS: 6-4
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 3-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

After drafting Jones in the first round of the latest draft, New England’s offense struggled miserably to kick off the season – highlighted by the Patriots generating just 17.8 PPG on roughly 311 YPG across the first four weeks of their new signal-caller’s tenure.

New England has noticeably stepped up its game since Week 4 though, considering the Patriots followed up their dismal four-game opening stretch with victories in five-of-six contests – while averaging a lofty 34 PPG on 386 YPG across that window.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-5
  • ATS: 4-5
  • O/U: 5-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-2

Atlanta was seemingly down for the count after losing to Washington in Week 4 (L, 34-30), as the Falcons went into Week 5 following losses in three-of-four games – with Atlanta’s lone victory coming in an ugly low-scoring bout against the Giants (W, 17-14).

The Falcons surprisingly bounced back though, considering Atlanta followed up its 1-3 start with wins in three-of-four games – before ultimately reverting to a substandard level of play against Dallas last week (L, 43-3).

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 6-4
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 275
  • Points Allowed: 177
  • PS/G: 27.5 (6th)
  • PA/G: 17.7 (2nd)

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 4-5
  • Division Standing: 4th - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 178
  • Points Allowed: 263
  • PS/G: 19.8 (25th)
  • PA/G: 29.2 (31st)

Key Players to Watch

  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (223/323, 2,333 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT)
  • NWE: Kendrick Bourne - WR (33 catches, 520 yards, 3 TD)
  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (218/322, 2,274 yards, 15 TD, 8 INT)
  • ATL: Kyle Pitts - TE (40 catches, 606 yards, TD)

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Conclusion

After extending their winning streak to four games with a blowout win over Cleveland last week (W, 45- 7), the Patriots will travel to Atlanta favored by roughly a touchdown over the Falcons at Mercedes Benz Stadium – which marks Atlanta’s third straight hefty underdog tag.

I’ll take the under here, as despite New England’s offense ranking sixth in scoring at 27.5 PPG, the Patriots have only scored 25 PTS or more in four games this year, resulting in a handful of victories in competitive low-scoring battles. Regardless of the general outcome though, I’m also backing Hunter Henry to score a touchdown at plus odds in Thursday’s event, as New England’s tight-end has now corralled seven touchdown receptions across his last seven games.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

  • Hunter Henry has scored a TD in six of his last seven games.
  • New England has won four straight games.
  • Atlanta has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games when playing on a Thursday.
  • Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games.

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