Money Moves – Divisional Round

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

Surprise surprise as we head into the NFL Divisional Playoff weekend, the betting public loves the Packers at home this week against the 49ers and they also like the Titans, and well, they like all four favorites the most. 

It’s not unusual for the betting public to gravitate to the favorites in the regular season or playoffs. They’re favored for a reason. They’re good. They’ve been cashing with their teams all season and they’re going to do it again. Why stop now?

What’s not to like about the Packers at home where they went 8-0 this season? People like Aaron Rodgers because he puts points on the board and usually covers the spread. The Packers went 13-4 to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC while going 12-5 ATS, the second-best in the NFL behind the Cowboys (13-5 ATS).

Two games Saturday and two games Sunday, all with low spreads at 6-points or less, with four of them advancing into next week’s two conference championship games.

So let’s review how the betting has gone at Las Vegas sportsbooks over the last week, who the sharps are betting, who Joe Public is betting, and marvel at the short spreads and short Super Bowl odds. 

It looks like parity has arrived at its finest in the NFL. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT TENNESSEE TITANS

• Date: Saturday, January 22, 2022
• Time-Network: 4:30 p.m.-CBS
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee
• Venue: Nissan Stadium 
• Roof: Outdoors
• Odds: Titans -3.5, O/U 47.5

Circa Sports opened the Titans -3 on Sunday night and just over an hour later they had enough Titans action to move off the most key number in the NFL and jump to -3.5. They were briefly at -4 on Tuesday for about 40 minutes.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said they took immediate action on the Titans at -3 when they opened Sunday and they’ve been -3.5 all week. Because the South Point doesn’t move the juice on spreads, flat numbers only – the South Point is a great indicator of where every book in the USA is going.

Jason McCormick at Station Casinos says he’s started to see a few of his smarter bettors jump on the Bengals +3.5 while the Titans remain the second-most popular bet of the weekend by the public. 

The Titans have an interesting trend going that is active this week. When Titans coach Mike Vrabel gets 8-plus days to work out a game plan for an opponent the Titans are 8-0 SU and ATS with an average margin of victory being 18.7. 

Titans RB Derrick Henry is expected to play after being injured the last 10 weeks, but we should temper expectations. The Titans won their last three games (2-1 ATS). But the Bengals have covered the last four meetings, winning three of them, including last season's 31-20 Bengals win with Joe Burrow and Henry both playing.

The Bengals have covered their last five games and come off the franchise's first playoff win in over 30 years. Joe Burrow just might go win the Super Bowl and make it look easy as he did in winning the title at LSU. The Las Vegas SuperBook has the Bengals 22-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and the No. 1 seeded Titans are 8-to-1 to win it all.

I don’t know if I’ve seen the final 8 teams updated odds to win the Super Bowl be so tight and broad. No favorite lower than +325 with the Packers at the SuperBook, followed by the Chiefs (4/1), Bills (5/1), Buccaneers (5/1), Rams (8/1), and Titans (8/1). The 49ers (12/1) and Bengals (22/1) round out the odds. Everyone has a legitimate chance to win it all which is very unusual.

One last thought on Joe Burrow that impressed me was that the Bengals went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against 2021 playoff teams. It shows that Burrow comes up big in the biggest games. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Date: Saturday, January 22, 2022
• Time-Network: 8:15 p.m.-FOX
• Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
• Venue: Lambeau Field 
• Roof: Outdoors
• Odds: Packers -5.5, O/U 47.5

The prevailing number in Las Vegas has the Packers -5.5, but it’s been an actively moving number. While not as dead as in years past, the number of 5 and 5.5 are easy numbers to move off of compared to a 3.

Circa Sports opened the Packers -4 on Sunday night and were -5 within 90 minutes. On Tuesday, they went back and forth on -5.5 and -6 until settling on -5.5 on Thursday. The total is set at 47.5

The Green Bay weather will be cold as usual for a playoff game but not terrible conditions at 22 degrees with 11 mph winds. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS as an underdog over his career but he hurt his shoulder last week and already has a banged-up thumb. Still, the 49ers come in hot with wins and covers in eight of their last 10 and they’re expected to have LB Fred Warner and DE Nick Bosa both active.

The Packers also come in hot with five wins in their last six games, and the only loss there was at Detroit in Week 18 when the Packers starters only played the first half. Their last game was a loss which opens up the Packers and Matt LeFleur off a loss trend that shows the Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine after a loss.

Station Casinos reported sharp money-line play on the 49ers at +210 and the South Point took sharp action on the 49ers at +6. BetMGM sharp money laid the Packers -4.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
• Time-Network: 3:00 p.m.-NBC
• Location: Tampa, Florida
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium 
• Roof: Outdoors
• Odds: Buccaneers -3, O/U 48

The South Point opened the Buccaneers -3 on Monday and then on Tuesday, Rams money came strong enough to push them down to -2.5. Remember, no added juice to spreads at South Point. At -2.5, Andrews has the best Bucs number in the world. Within 40 minutes, Bucs money arrives and they get enough of it to go back to -3. The back and forth happened four more times over the week until settling on -2.5 on Friday.

Meanwhile, Circa Sports, Caesars, and the SuperBook are all -3 EVEN meaning the Rams side is taking +3 but laying -120 odds. All three books probably have enough money on the Rams to make a move, but 3 is a tricky number to mess with. If the Bucs win by 3 the books just refund most of the money, except at the South Point where they’ll get sided by all the Bucs -2.5 money.

The Bucs have covered seven of their eight home games this season and went 5-1 against playoff teams. The Rams went 3-5 against playoff teams but they went 6-1 and 5-2 ATS over their last seven games. Matt Stafford finally grabbed his first playoff win last week and got through with no interceptions after accumulating 8 picks between his previous four games. Stafford also led the league with four Pick-6’s.

Tom Brady is 35-11 all-time in the playoffs but only 25-20-1 ATS. He gets the ball out quick and avoids good pass rushes, but the Rams have beat him the last two seasons with pressure being a factor. Since losing the Week 3 matchup 34-24 at Los Angeles, Brady’s first game ever in Los Angeles, the Rams have brought in Von Miller who has his own history of being a factor in the playoffs against Brady.

The total is sitting at 48 and should be noted that the Rams have gone over in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog. The last two meetings between the Rams and Bucs went over. The last five meetings have gone over for whatever that’s worth.

BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
• Time-Network: 6:30 p.m.-CBS
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 
• Roof: Outdoors
• Odds: Chiefs -2, O/U 54

The South Point opened the Buccaneers -3 on Monday and then on Tuesday, Rams money came strong enough to push them down to -2.5. Remember, no added juice to spreads at South Point. At -2.5, Andrews has the best Bucs number in the world. Within 40 minutes, Bucs money arrives and they get enough of it to go back to -3. The back and forth happened four more times over the week until settling on -2.5 on Friday.

Meanwhile, Circa Sports, Caesars, and the SuperBook are all -3 EVEN meaning the Rams side is taking +3 but laying -120 odds. All three books probably have enough money on the Rams to make a move, but 3 is a tricky number to mess with. If the Bucs win by 3 the books just refund most of the money, except at the South Point where they’ll get sided by all the Bucs -2.5 money.

The Bucs have covered seven of their eight home games this season and went 5-1 against playoff teams. The Rams went 3-5 against playoff teams but they went 6-1 and 5-2 ATS over their last seven games. Matt Stafford finally grabbed his first playoff win last week and got through with no interceptions after accumulating 8 picks between his previous four games. Stafford also led the league with four Pick-6’s.

Tom Brady is 35-11 all-time in the playoffs but only 25-20-1 ATS. He gets the ball out quick and avoids good pass rushes, but the Rams have beat him the last two seasons with pressure being a factor. Since losing the Week 3 matchup 34-24 at Los Angeles, Brady’s first game ever in Los Angeles, the Rams have brought in Von Miller who has his own history of being a factor in the playoffs against Brady.

The total is sitting at 48 and should be noted that the Rams have gone over in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog. The last two meetings between the Rams and Bucs went over. The last five meetings have gone over for whatever that’s worth.

BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
• Time-Network: 6:30 p.m.-CBS
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 
• Roof: Outdoors
• Odds: Chiefs -2, O/U 54

Sharp money took the best Bills number they could find and didn’t mind it was only +2.5 at the South Point and BetMGM and they also took +2 wherever they could find. The SuperBook and South Point are both at Chiefs -1.5. No sharp money coming back the other way. Wow! 

The Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11 and no one is willing to bet big money on the Chiefs to win a playoff game laying less than 3 at home? The public has been betting the Chiefs still, but it’s all Bills for the sharps. 

The Bills have been on a more impressive roll than the Chiefs lately winning and covering their last five. They certainly look more polished and the No.1 ranked defense (272 ypg allowed) of the Bills will give the Chiefs No. 3 offense (396 ypg) some trouble. 

In Week 5, the Bills rolled 38-20 at Arrowhead Stadium, a signal then that the tide had turned in the AFC. But then the Bills lost at Tennessee, they lost at Jacksonville, and then home losses to the Colts and Patriots. It was the overtime loss Week 15 at Tampa Bay that flipped the go switch to the Bills and their season. 

The total has been a steady 54 and it should be noted the Bills over is 8-0 in their last eight games as an underdog. The Chiefs averaged a 28-21 score this season and went 11-7 to the over on the season.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson