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NFL Week 10 Parlay Picks and Predictions

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 10 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

  • Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-110) vs. CLE
  • Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-110) @ GB

Payout: +264

The Dolphins have been on quite the rollercoaster to open the season, as Miami averaged 27.5 PPG on 382 YPG across their six matchups started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season, while posting a perfect 6-0 record in those contests.

However, in the three games Tagovailoa missed or exited early, the Dolphins scored just 16 PPG on 377 YPG and turned the ball over seven times, resulting in a frustrating 0-3 skid, and a heavy downtick to their impressive numbers outside of that stretch.

The Browns, on the other hand, posted a triumphant 32-13 win over Cincinnati in their most recent affair. However, the result of their latest affair wasn’t exactly on par with the rest of their campaign, as the Browns averaged just 21 PPG across a 2-5 skid prior to that, with their only wins coming against underwhelming opponents in the Panthers and Steelers.

The Dolphins should ultimately have a field day at home against a Cleveland defense that’s surrendered 23+ PTS in six-of-eight matchups this season (24.9 PPG), which is somewhat appeasable if their offense was capable of consistently matching on the other side of the script.

However, the Browns have scored 20 PTS or less in three of their last five games, which doesn’t bode well heading into Sunday’s matchup against a Miami squad that’s scored 31+ PTS in back-to-back contests. So, I’ll back the Dolphins to cover here.

The Packers are certainly early frontrunners for this year’s biggest disappointment in the league, as Green Bay followed up back-to-back 13-win campaigns with a head-scratching 3-6 skid to open the season, which primarily stems from an offense that ranks 27th in the league in scoring at 17.1 PPG, a problem this squad isn’t accustomed to with Aaron Rodgers under center.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, appeared to be doomed early in the season, as Dallas posted an ugly 19-3 home loss to the Bucs in Week 1, and QB Dak Prescott exited the contest with a thumb injury that was expected to keep him out for 4-6 weeks.

However, backup QB Cooper Rush weathered the storm just fine for Dallas, as the Cowboys’ offense averaged a modest 21.4 PPG across a 4-1 run in Prescott’s absence, with their only loss during that span coming against the undefeated Eagles.

I’ll back Dallas to cover here, as the Cowboys have scored 36.5 PPG and allowed just 17.5 PPG in back-to-back victories since the return of Prescott, likely presenting a steep uphill battle for a Packers squad that’s scored 21 PTS or less in six-of-nine matchups so far this season.

ML Parlay Best Bet

  • Seattle Seahawks ML (+130) at TB
  • Los Angeles Chargers ML (+250) at SF

Payout: +705

The Buccaneers snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-13 home win over the Rams last week, however, it wasn’t pretty, as Tom Brady and co. approached the midway point of the fourth quarter trailing L. A. by a score of 13-6. But some late game magic from Brady resulted in the Bucs escaping with a narrow victory on the heels of a Cade Otton touchdown catch with just nine seconds left on the clock.

I’ll take Seattle moneyline here, as Geno Smith and co. have racked up a whopping 32.3 PPG on 392 YPG across their latest 5-1 stretch, and it’s not like they’re beating up on a bunch of scrubs, the Seahawks posted tough wins over the Chargers, Giants, and Cardinals during that span. And while Tampa Bay is probably the toughest defense Seattle has faced this season, it clearly doesn’t take much to outlast this Bucs’ squad that currently ranks 25th in the league in scoring (18 PPG).

The Chargers have become notorious for being one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, however, the Niners tend to fall under that same umbrella, as San Francisco followed up last year’s impressive playoff run with an underwhelming 4-4 start to the season, which includes head-scratching losses to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons.

The Chargers never make anything look easy, but putting all the numbers aside, L. A. enters Sunday night’s matchup riding a solid 4-1 stretch, which includes wins over the Broncos and Falcons, both teams that already beat San Francisco this season.

This matchup has ugly written all over it, and L. A. certainly knows how to win ugly. I very rarely trust Brandon Staley’s squad with my money these days, but as heavy underdogs against a .500 Niners team quarterbacked by Jimmy Garoppolo, it’s tough to resist taking a flier on the Bolts ML here.

Six-Point Teaser

  • Las Vegas Raiders +0.5 (-5.5) vs. IND
  • Broncos-Titans Under 42.5 (OU 36.5)

Payout: -120

The Raiders entered the season with sky high expectations after adding All-Pro wideout Davante Adams to a squad that made the playoffs with a record of 10-7 the year prior. But in a world where the masses claim that “sometimes the best defense is just good offense,” Las Vegas is a glaring example of why it’s so difficult to survive that way, as the Raiders currently rank 14th in points scored at 22.9 PPG, and 27th in points allowed at 25.1 PPG, resulting in a lackluster record of 2-6 thus far.

Fortunately, the Raiders host Indianapolis this week, a squad with virtually no offense, as the Colts enter Sunday having scored 17 PTS or less in five of their last six contests (15.3 PPG), and to throw another wrench into the equation, Indy also fired head coach Frank Reich this week and replaced him with what appears to be a very unprepared Jeff Saturday.

I’ll back Las Vegas here, as the Raiders’ solid offensive numbers have been drowned out by terrible defense so far this season, however, I think we’ll see them get back over the hump in Sunday’s matchup against a Colts squad that scored 20 PTS or less in eight-of-nine contests to open the year (14.7 PPG).

Both of these squads enter Week 10 with relatively pedestrian records, as the Titans sit 5-3 opposed to the Broncos sitting 3-5. However, that certainly isn’t to the credit of these offenses, as Tennessee currently ranks 24th in the league in scoring with an average of 18.6 PPG, while Denver ranks 30th at 15.1 PPG.

Whoever scores 20 PTS first probably wins this matchup, but honestly, I’m not sure if we’ll see either team eclipse that number. The Titans are 3-1 in their last four games, despite scoring 21 PTS or less in all four of those affairs. And the Broncos have scored 21 PTS or less in seven-of-eight contests. So, it might be more like first team to 17 PTS wins in Nashville this Sunday.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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