Last Updated Dec 04, 2022, 4:23 PM
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks, Predictions, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
Week 13 of the NFL season will resume Sunday mid-afternoon with a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. Coverage begins from Paycor Stadium in Cincy at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING PREDICTION
The Chiefs will visit the Bengals for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game this Sunday, which was a contest Kansas City barreled out to a 21-3 first-half lead in, only to have that lead quickly erased in the second half, as Joe Burrow and co. rallied from behind to escape with a three-point road victory and a trip to the Super Bowl.
However, the Bengals countered last year’s run with a frustrating 2-3 skid to open this season, which was an incredibly out of character stretch for this squad, as Cincy’s defense surrendered just 17.8 PPG and forced eight turnovers in their first five games of the year. But it never bred much success due to their offense averaging just 21.6 PPG during that timeframe.
The Bengals have returned to form since their opening stretch, though, as Joe Burrow and co. enter Sunday following scoring outputs of 30+ PTS in four of their last six games, resulting in a sturdy record of 5-1 across that window. And it’s not like they’ve been significantly aided by improved health status either, highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase missing four of those affairs with a hip injury.
But make no mistake, the Chiefs still have the much better offense in this matchup, as Patrick Mahomes and co. currently lead the league in most major statistical categories, including both scoring and yards per play (29.6 PPG, 6.5 YPP), despite averaging just 18.5 PPG across a pair of head-scratching performances against the Colts and Bills.
I’ll back the Chiefs here, as the Bengals may have escaped with a pair of victories over Kansas City last year, but the way those contests unfolded still strikes me as a bit fluky, and I think we'll finally see the pendulum swing the other way on Sunday afternoon.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bengals 23
Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING ODDS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING RESOURCES
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Matchup: AFC West vs. AFC North
Venue: Paycor Stadium
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Time-TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ANALYSIS
Kansas City’s offense was naturally expected to take a step back following the departure of All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill. However, the Chiefs have pretty much looked like the same ole’ Chiefs through the first 12 weeks of the season, highlighted by Kansas City’s offense lighting up the scoreboard for 32.1 PPG on 448 YPG across their nine victories.
But of course, it wouldn’t be an Andy Reid led squad without the occasional hiccup, as they also averaged 18.5 PPG on 351 YPG across a pair of frustrating losses to the Colts and Bills.
Kansas City’s offense is always capable of erupting with Mahomes at the helm, as the Chiefs have now scored 26+ PTS In 8-of-11 contests on the way to averaging a league-best 29.6 PPG on the season.
However, the Chiefs’ defense is very middle of the road, which puts tons of additional weight on the shoulders of their offense, and that can be a slippery slope in matchups against top-heavy offensive squads like Cincy, highlighted by Kansas City’s solid 24-point performance in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and the Bengals still managing to escape with a victory.
CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING ANALYSIS
The Bengals stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start after coming just three points shy of winning last year’s Super Bowl, as the reigning AFC Champs dropped their first two matchups of the season to the Steelers and Cowboys, marking just the sixth time a defending conference champion has started 0-2 since the onset of the Super Bowl era
The Bengals’ offense has completely turned things around since their frustrating start, though, as Cincinnati enters Sunday following a solid 5-1 stretch, while scoring 30+ PTS in four of those contests.
But unfortunately, their defense has also seen a change in pace, highlighted by the Bengals’ surrendering a lofty average of 23.4 PPG across their latest six-game stretch, which doesn’t bode well heading into a matchup against an offensive powerhouse like the Chiefs.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING TRENDS
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City's last six games.
- The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
- The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Cincinnati.
- The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati's last 16 games.
- The Bengals are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 13 games against Kansas City.
- The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
- The Chiefs are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against Cincinnati.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of Kansas City's last nine road games.
- The Chiefs are 0-6 SU in their last six road games against Cincinnati.