NHL Best Bets, Score Predictions for Sunday Apr. 11

NHL Daily Free Picks & Predictions

VegasInsider.com NHL expert Matt Blunt provides his score predictions and best bets for one NHL game on Sunday, Apr. 11, 2021.

Colorado Avalanche vs Anaheim Ducks

  • Money-Line Odds: Colorado -375; Anaheim +295
  • Total (Over-Under): 6

Score Prediction: Colorado 5 Anaheim 2

Best Bet: Over 6

With the schedule being what it is this year with these two game sets usually at a minimum, anytime there is a game with sub-4 total goals scored and the same two teams are playing again, I'll always start with some interest in the 'over'.

When it's the league's highest scoring team – Colorado averages 3.55 goals per game – as one of the two teams involved that interest in the high side of this total only grows.

Similar to the idea of expecting the Sharks offense to bounce back after a bad performance or two, even with it being a 2-0 win for Colorado the other night, the Avalanche scoring two goals or less is on the bad end of the spectrum for them offensively.

The two goals or less outcome has connected in now 14 Colorado games this season, and after the previous 13, Colorado's put up 8, 3, 7, 0, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 goals themselves (avg 3.69 goals per game).

The overall O/U record in those games is just 5-8 O/U overall so the success rate on a cash here isn't nearly where it probably should be, and that's the problem with Anaheim being on the other side.

The Ducks being one of the worst teams in the league offensively (2.41 xGF/60) is always going to be a concern, but what sometimes gets lost with this team is their 8th worst xGA/60 at 2.9.

Prior to that 2-0 game with Colorado the other night, Anaheim had played seven straight games with at least five goals scored, with the 'under' landing one more time than not (3-4 O/U). The Avalanche were involved in one of those games during that stretch, and it's where that 5-2 score comes from. Colorado won by that result back at the end of March.

The Ducks having a 1.86 goals per home game this year doesn't particularly help this 'over' either, but for whatever reason, Anaheim hadn't had much of a problem scoring against Colorado in either venue before the last outing.

In the six previous meetings this year, the Ducks have scored 2, 3, 2, 5, 4, and 2 goals for an average of three goals per game. Split the difference between that number and Anaheim's yearly number at home, and I'll gladly rely on Colorado to do the rest of the work.

There's a chance Anaheim will go the backup route to give Gibson another day of rest after three straight starts, and the Colorado/Anaheim games that haven't had Gibson in the net for the Ducks have ended with scores of 5-4, 8-4, and 5-2.

All three of those cashed 'over' tickets and would do so on today's number as well. If Gibson does get another start it's still a comfortable bet to live with, as you've still got the league's best scoring offense involved.