Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

The Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. on Monday night for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, a best-of-seven series. The Lightning lead the series 3-0. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Panthers 3

Best Bet

Lightning -125
Over 6.5 (-105)

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The Panthers scored 340 goals during the regular season, easily the most in the NHL. In fact, that was 25 more than the Toronto Maple Leafs, and you see how well that offensive production worked out for them against the Lightning. The Panthers have managed just one goal in each of the first three games of this series, all losses, as Andrei Vasilevskiy has shut Florida down. He is 3-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and .971 SV% in three starts against the Panthers in this series, pushing Florida to the brink.

The Lightning registered goals from Corey Perry, Erik Cernak and Steven Stamkos on even-strength markers, while Nikita Kucherov and Stamkos hit the empty net for insurance. The last two goals made OVER (6.5) bettors sweat quite a bit, after it appeared the UNDER was going to be a slam-dunk play. Now, the President's Trophy winners from the regular season face the prospects of needing four straight wins against the two-time defending Stanley Cup winners, or be forced to the handshake line wondering what could've been.

Jonathan Huberdeau rolled up 30 goals and 85 assists, becoming the first player in franchise history to hit the century mark in the regular season. However, he has no goals, two assists and a minus-1 rating in this series, and just five shots on goal. In the postseason he has a goal and five points with just one power-play assist in nine playoff games. Sasha Barkov also has just one assist and a minus-4 rating through three games in this series, and the disappearance of that dynamic duo is a major reason the Panthers are facing the brooms.

Updated on 04/16/2024

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FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Panthers +100
Lightning -120
Panthers -1.5 (+200)
Lightning +1.5 (-250)
Over 6.5 (+100)
Under 6.5 (-120)

More Odds | Futures Odds

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Monday, May 22, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Amalie Arena
• Location: Tampa, Fla.
• TV-Time: TNT, 7 p.m. ET

FLORIDA PANTHERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 62-23-6
• ATS: 44-47
• O/U: 47-36-8

Florida has posted a 4-5 record in the playoffs, going 2-2 on the road. The UNDER is 2-1 in the past three games on the road, including the 5-1 setback on Sunday afternoon. They're still 2-10 in the past 12 playoff games as an underdog, and you have to love the experience of the Lightning as they crack out the brooms and look to send the Panthers to the golf course.

The Panthers have their backs up against the wall, needing four straight victories to avoid a disappointing end to the season. Florida is just 19-8 in the past 27 games on the road, while going 2-10 in the past 11 playoff games as an underdog. They're also 1-5 in the past six as an underdog, and 1-5 in the past six as a road 'dog, too.

In terms of totals, the Panthers have hit the UNDER at a 12-5-4 clip across the past 21 games overall, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight as an underdog and 6-1-1 in the past eight as a road 'dog, too.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 58-26-8
• ATS: 45-47
• O/U: 49-41-2

The Lightning won the Stanley Cup in each of the past two seasons, but some detractors and salty fans didn't give them full 100 percent credit since one took place in the bubble during COVID-19, and another had strange circumstances which matched them up against the Montreal Canadiens in a realignment Cup Final. Smart people know 16 wins in the playoffs, regardless of the format or situation is still 16 wins, and it's the toughest championship in all of sports.

Tampa Bay shook off the pesky Maple Leafs in seven games, and suddenly Toronto's effort looks pretty amazing given Florida's paltry results so far.

The Lightning have won five games in a row, while going a ridiculous 27-5 in the past 32 Eastern Conference Semifinals games. They're also 60-25 in the previous 85 home games, which is good for a .706 winning percentage. And if you're thinking there might be a letdown after playing yesterday, Tampa Bay is 36-17 in the past 53 games on no rest.

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING CONCLUSION

The Panthers were the highest scoring team in the NHL during the regular season, but Vasilevskiy has completely bewildered this offensive juggernaut. The lowest previous three-game offensive stretch from Dec. 12-16 was a total of five goals, also during a three-game losing streak.

Florida needs to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Lightning, but it has scored just one goal in each of the first three games. It won't take much to flip the total from an UNDER to OVER, but that's likely all that's going to change. Tampa Bay should close this out in Game 4, as Florida has shown very little want or fight.

FLORIDA PANTHERS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

• Panthers are 19-8 in the past 27 road games.
• Lightning are 5-0 in the past five games overall.
• Lightning are 60-25 in the past 85 home games.
• Lightning are 27-5 in the past 32 Conference Semifinals games.
• UNDER is 12-5-4 in the past 21 games for the Panthers.
• OVER is 13-6 in the past 19 games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 8-2 in the past 10 home games for the Lightning.
• UNDER is 6-0 in the past six Conference Semifinals games for the Lightning.
• Favorite is 23-11 in the past 34 meetings.
• Panthers are 1-5 in the past six meetings.
• Panthers are 8-22 in the past 30 trips to Tampa.
• UNDER is 7-2 in the past nine meetings.
• OVER is 22-10 in the past 32 meetings in Tampa.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish