Last Updated Jun 22, 2022, 12:37 AM

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena Monday night for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, a best-of-seven series. The Avalanche lead the series 2-0. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ABC/ESPN+.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Avalanche 2

Best Bet

Lightning +105
Over 5.5 (-120)

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The two-time defending Stanley Cup champs are certainly on the ropes. After a competitive 4-3 overtime loss in Game 1, the Lightning were aiming for a road split to try and seize home-ice advantage for the series. The Avalanche were having none of that.

Tampa Bay's Ryan McDonagh was whistled for a roughing call early in the first period, losing a little discipline, which is uncharacteristic for the Lightning. Colorado's Valeri Nichushkin took advantage, potting his second goal of the series with a power-play marker to break the ice. Josh Manson followed at 7:55 with an even-strength marker, and Andre Burakovsky, the Game 1 hero in OT, notched his second in as many games.

After the dust cleared in the first period, Colorado led 3-0, and it has now outscored Tampa Bay 6-1 through the first two games. It got worse. Much worse.

Nichushkin was back again with an even-strength goal early in the second period, and Darren Helm lit the lamp for the second time this postseason to make it 5-0. The big dogs of the Avalanche hadn't even etched their names onto the scoresheet, at least until Cale Makar tacked on a shorthanded goal early in the third, and a power-play goal midway through the final period. The extra point was up and good, and the Avalanche won it 7-0.

The Lightning and Andrei Vasilevskiy, normally money after a playoff loss, are now 1-2 in the past three such situation after an 18-0 run previously. Is the luster wearing off of the Lightning, or can they show that championship mettle one more time, similar to how it recovered after going down 0-2 to the New York Rangers? I think they can.


Avalanche -127
Lightning +105
Avalanche +1.5 (-263)
Lightning -1.5 (+220)
Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (+100)

More Odds Futures Odds


  • Date: Monday, June 20, 2022
  • Matchup: Central vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Amalie Arena
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • TV-Time: ABC/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET


Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 70-20-8
  • ATS: 48-50
  • O/U: 52-41-5

The Avalanche squandered a 3-1 lead in regulation in Game 1, allowing the Lightning to tie it up and force overtime. Luckily Burakovsky wasted no time and banged home the winner in 83 seconds. The Game 2 home crowd had a much less stressful night.

The Avalanche now hit the road, and that's actually good news. Colorado is a perfect 7-0 away from home in these playoffs, outscoring the opposition 36-20. Overall, the Avs are 23-9 in the past 32 games on the road, while cashing in 41 of the past 59 with a one-day rest period.

The OVER has connected in each of the first two games of this series, and the OVER has hit in five of the seven road playoff games for the Avalanche. The OVER is also now 9-4-1 in the past 14 games against Eastern Conference teams.


Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 63-29-9
  • ATS: 49-52
  • O/U: 52-47-2

Game No. 100 overall for the Lightning didn't go so hot. But this is a team that understands whether it loses by one goal, or seven, it still counts as just one loss. Sure, Tampa Bay needs four wins in the next five games to secure that three-peat, but it is now a much more difficult task.

The Lightning have posted victories in 40 of the past 55 games at Amalie Arena, and you know the home crowd will be hyped up early trying to rally their team back to life. Tampa Bay has still won eight of the past 11 Stanley Cup Final games.

For totals, the UNDER is still 7-0 in the past seven games for the Lightning when playing on a day of rest, and a perfect 5-0 in the past five on home ice.

The Lightning need to find a way to beat Darcy Kuemper in Game 3. (Getty Images)


I have been seriously forced to re-evaluate my trust in the Lightning. I've done it before. In the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs, they were down and out, only to come back and win two elimination games, including a Game 7 on the road. Surely they'd struggle with the high-octane Florida Panthers. Nope. They swept their Sunshine State rivals. They're back! Nope. They went down 0-2 to the New York Rangers. I doubted them again. They win four in a row. This has certainly been a roller coaster ride of emotions for the Lightning this postseason. Do they have yet another turnaround in store?

Playing on home ice, you should feel good about the Lightning, and I am going to trust their championship mettle and veteran leadership to get this done and yet make it a series. But the Avalanche are 7-0 on the road, and if anybody is going to end this reign of dominance by the Lightning, it's Colorado. It has lived up to the hype through two games of this series.


  • Avalanche are 57-19 in the past 76 games overall.
  • Avalanche are 23-9 in the past 32 road games.
  • Avalanche are 7-0 in the past seven road playoff games.
  • Avalanche are 41-18 in the past 59 on a day of rest.
  • Lightning are 8-3 in the past 11 Stanley Cup Final games.
  • Lightning are 40-15 in the past 55 home games.
  • OVER is 5-2 in the past seven road games for the Avalanche.
  • OVER is 9-4-1 in the past 14 vs. Eastern Conference teams for the Avs.
  • UNDER is 7-0 in the past seven on a day of rest for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 5-0 in the past five home games for the Lightning.
  • Avalanche are 4-1 in the past five meetings.
  • Favorite is 16-5 in the past 21 meetings.
  • OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings.
  • OVER is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Tampa.
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