Last Updated Jun 24, 2022, 8:25 PM

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche meet at Ball Arena Friday night for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final, a best-of-seven series. The Avalanche lead the series 3-1. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ABC/ESPN+.

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Score Prediction

Avalanche 3, Lightning 2

Best Bet

Avalanche -161
Under 6 (-115)

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. COLORADO AVALANCHE PREDICTIONS

Ding-dong, the witch is dead? The last time an NHL team won the Stanley Cup in three or more years in a row was the New York Islanders teams from 1980-83. The Isles won it four years in a row back then, let by the late, great Mike Bossy, who just passed away April 15 at the age of 65.

A brief little history, as I might not get a chance to tell this story. While attending elementary school in South Florida, I had a fifth-grade physical education teacher from Long Island. I don't remember his name, but he was soooooooo annoying. I had never really paid much attention to hockey, except in passing. But his continual talk of "One for the thumb! One for the thumb!" in that summer of 1983 turned me into an Edmonton Oilers fan back then. In Florida, prior to the arrival of the Panthers and Lightning, all we'd get was games televised on USA Network, WOR Channel 9 out of New York and occasionally other broadcasts, and most featured No. 99, "The Great One". Like many, I became a Wayne Gretzky fan, and cheered against any other dynasty. So, 10-year-old Dan would definitely be cheering for the Avalanche to put a nail in the coffin of this Lightning run.

However, let's just say, "Middle-Aged Dan", has to be objective and not cheer one way or the other. It's always nice to see someone different become champions, and the Avalanche can send the two-time defending champs to the handshake line in Denver on Friday. Then those nattily-clad gentlemen with the gloves will take Lord Stanley's Cup out of the protective case, tears will be shed, celebration will ensue, and we'll see players skate with the Cup.

But, we still have a Game 5 to play, and while it appears the Lightning are in dire straits, they have the heart of a champion, and I guarantee Tampa Bay will not go quietly into the sunset without a fight. The last win is always the hardest, and you can be damn sure Tampa Bay will continue that tradition, too.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. COLORADO AVALANCHE BETTING ODDS

Lightning +140
Avalanche -161
Lightning +1.5 (-185)
Avalanche -1.5 (+170)
Over 6 (+100)
Under 6 (-115)

More Odds Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. COLORADO AVALANCHE BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Friday, June 24, 2022
  • Matchup: Atlantic vs. Central
  • Venue: Ball Arena
  • Location: Denver, Colo.
  • TV-Time: ABC/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 64-29-10
  • ATS: 50-53
  • O/U: 53-48-2

The Lightning fired out to the early lead when Anthony Cirelli struck just 36 seconds into Game 4 from Erik Cernak, sending the home crowd into a frenzy. In the second period, Nathan MacKinnon notched a power-play goal to make it 1-1, but Victor Hedman tipped one home midway through the second period to get the lead back, and get the crowd back into the game. Sadly, if you were backing the Lightning, the OVER or just cheering for Tampa Bay, that was all of the offense for the home side. Andrew Cogliano tipped one home early in the third, and Nazem Kadri banged in the overtime winner at 12:02 to push Tampa to the brink.

The Lightning are now 11-5 in the past 16 games overall, and unless they can make it 14-5 in the past 19, they're not going to win the Stanley Cup this season. Tampa Bay has won just once in the past five games, and would need to win two in a row on the road, starting with Game 5, or it is done.

The UNDER has cashed in 11 of the past 15 games overall for the Lightning, while going 5-1 in the past six on the road. The UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 as an underdog, and 7-3 in the past 10 as a road 'dog, too.

COLORADO AVALANCHE BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 71-21-8
  • ATS: 50-50
  • O/U: 53-42-5

The Avalanche have registered 59 victories in the past 72 games at Ball Arena, while cashing in 59 of the past 72 as a home favorite, too. And for whatever it's worth, the Avalanche are 22-6 in the past 28 appearances on a Friday.

As far favorite in the playoffs, Colorado has won 36 of its past 51 games, while hitting in 42 of the past 61 when playing on a day of rest. If you trust the trends, then we're going to see a Stanley Cup champ crowned, likely on Friday night.

The OVER has hit in four of the past five, with the lone exception the OT win in Tampa in Game 4. The OVER is also 8-2 in the past 10 games played on a Friday, as Colorado literally says, "T.G.I.F." The OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 games as a favorite for the Avs, while going 7-3 in the past 10 playoff games as a fave, too.

The Avalanche look to put away the Lightning in Game 5. (Getty Images)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. COLORADO AVALANCHE CONCLUSION

This is likely going to be the saddest day of the year, at least if you're a hockey fan, and not one living in Denver. The National Hockey League is about to be put to bed, and the Colorado Avalanche are going to win the fourth game of the Stanley Cup Final, and then we have no hockey until October.

But, again, don't expect the Lightning to go quietly into the night. Tampa Bay will push Colorado all evening long, and we will not see a replay of the 7-0 blowout loss we saw in Game 2. Expect a close game, and playing the Lightning on the puck line wouldn't be a terribly play. And playing the UNDER for a second straight game is also a strong play. Unless we're back Sunday for a Game 6 back in Tampa, thank you for reading this season, and I hope these pieces have helped you win some bread.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. COLORADO AVALANCHE BETTING TRENDS

  • Lightning are 11-5 in the past 16 games overall.
  • Lightning are 1-4 in the past five road games.
  • Lightning are 13-5 in the past 18 playoff games as an underdog.
  • Lightning are 4-1 in the past five as a road underdog.
  • Avalanche are 59-13 in the past 72 home games.
  • Avalanche are 36-15 in the past 51 as a favorite.
  • Avalanche are 5-1 in the past six Stanley Cup Final games.
  • UNDER is 11-4 in the past 15 games for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 5-1 in the past six road games for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 as an underdog for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 4-1 in the past five games for the Avalanche.
  • OVER is 4-1 in the past five home games for the Avs.
  • Home team is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
  • Favorite is 20-8 in the past 28 meetings.
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