Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Champions League qualification is on the line on the Premier League’s final weekend. Our Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea predictions look at a match that will have a big say on which sides enter Europe’s top club competition next season.

One point separates them in the table. Both sides need to win to stand any chance of securing a top-five spot. The stage is set for what should be one of the best matches of the Premier League’s final day.

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Updated on 5/23/25

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Analysis of the Match

Nottingham Forest have become the first team in Premier League history to double their points tally in the following season. The 32-point haul last term has transformed into 65 points one year later. The win over West Ham took 2024/25's return to an eye-watering figure with one game remaining. The current crop has also taken Nottingham Forest to their first European odyssey for 30 years. It's a remarkable feat.

After being widely tipped for relegation at the start of the season, the level of sustained performances under Nuno Espirito Santo is something to behold. However, this is not the time for celebration. Not yet.

The remaining fixture is a significant one. As the scheduling gods usually do, they've pitted 7th against 4th, with just one point separating the pair. A victory will lock in Champions League qualification for Chelsea. A Forest win might return the same fate if results go their way elsewhere.

The Blues (W8/D2) are the best home team in the Premier League since the turn of the year. Chelsea are unbeaten at Stamford Bridge this calendar year. 

The main concern for Enzo Maresca and supporters heading to Nottingham will be Chelsea's (W1/D2/L5) away form. In 2025, Chelsea have won once from eight away days. Only Southampton (4) has returned fewer points on the road than Chelsea's five from eight fixtures.

An interesting quirk of this fixture, looking at the circumstances, means that a draw might not be helpful to either team. If Aston Villa, Manchester City and Newcastle win their final day outings, Forest and Chelsea must clinch three points in this head-to-head. As score updates make their way to the respective benches, the final stages of the second half might see both teams force this fixture into the realms of a high-scoring shootout.

Nottingham Forest Analysis and Form

Nottingham Forest have to get the better of Chelsea on the final day to be in with a chance of Champions League qualification. Chelsea requires the same ending in terms of three points. This has all the hallmarks of an intriguing, feisty battle.

Only Ipswich (40.5%) averages less possession this season than Nottingham Forest's 40.9% per90. Sunday's home side should assume a similar role to most Premier League outings this season. Nuno Espirito Santo's eleven will work hard without the ball and invite Chelsea towards their goal.

Forest enters the final matchday with the fewest tackles in the final third (65) this season. In contrast, no Premier League team has chalked up more than their 401 tackles in the defensive third of the pitch. Nuno wants teams to commit bodies up the pitch. He wants Chelsea to have the ball on Sunday. The Blues will gladly accept the role of aggressors, but they need to be careful.

When the time comes, Chris Wood will spearhead the Forest attack and ensure he's available in and around the 18-yard box. Further back, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Elliot Anderson are tasked with dragging their team upfield in possession. 

Forest must prove stubborn defensively once again at home. Win the midfield battle and quickly spring forward once the ball is turned over, and Chelsea will struggle.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

Marc Cucurella's strike against Manchester United (1-0) ensured Chelsea entered the final day in the Premier League with Champions League qualification in their hands. If Enzo Maresca's Blues beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground, they'll finish in the top five qualifying spots, considering their superior goal difference accumulated throughout 2024/25.

The task, on paper, is straightforward for Chelsea. However, when you're displaying relegation-like away form this calendar year, nothing should be straightforward. No team has scored fewer goals than Chelsea (5) in the 2025 away standings. Ipswich (12), Southampton (8) and Leicester (7) all boast more strikes when travelling the UK in 2025. 

Couple Chelsea's lack of goals away from home with Nicolas Jackson's suspension and Nottingham Forest's robust defensive metrics. That prompts more questions than answers when analysing whether Chelsea can leave the City Ground with the required three points.

Liverpool and Nottingham Forest (15) are tied with the lowest goals conceded after 18 Premier League home games this season. The defensive record has taken a hit recently, with Leicester City (2-2) and Brentford (0-2) registering doubles in Nottingham.

The Blues will hope a makeshift forward line consisting of Pedro Neto, Noni Madueke, Cole Palmer, and Tyrique George can penetrate a Forest backline that has often appeared impenetrable until the final run-in.

Head to Head 

Historically, Chelsea have enjoyed a strong record in this fixture, with the visitors losing only once in six Premier League encounters at the City Ground. 

That solitary defeat came in January 1997, when Nottingham Forest claimed a 2-0 victory. The Blues secured a thrilling 3-2 win in May last year, thanks to late goals from Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson. However, Forest managed to snatch a 1-0 victory eight months earlier in London, courtesy of Anthony Elanga's sole strike.

Across all competitions, Chelsea have remained unbeaten in 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two clubs, including those at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have twice eliminated Forest from the FA Cup in consecutive seasons (2019 and 2020) and posted a 5-1 victory in the EFL Cup in 2017.

This fixture has traditionally been high-scoring, with both teams finding the net in four of their last five encounters since January 2023. Over this period, 14 goals have been shared equally between the two sides.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Ola Aina, Murillo, Milenkovic, Williams; Dominguez, Sangare; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Anderson; Wood. 

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; James, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Cucurella; Fernandez, Caicedo; Pedro Neto, Palmer, Madueke; George.

For the biggest match since their return to the Premier League, Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo is striking with the same formation that won 2-1 at West Ham. Callum Hudson-Odoi might not be fit enough to make the bench, whereas Taiwo Awoni has been ruled out for the rest of the season after abdominal surgery. 

Chris Wood will lead the attacking line supported by Elange, Gibbs-White and Anderson.

In the visitors’ camp, Nicolas Jackson, Mudryk, both suspended, and Fofana are all not available. With Nkunku’s fitness to be assessed before the match, it looks like teenager George will once again start upfront. 

Enzo Maresca is expected to make no changes to the starting eleven that beat Chelsea 1–0 last Friday, with Reece James confirmed at right back and Moises Caicedo forming the double midfield pivot alongside Enzo Fernandez. Robert Sanchez will be in goal as Filip Jörgensen is expected to play in the Conference League final against Real Betis next Wednesday.

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson