Netherlands vs Japan Prediction, Picks, Odds

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

While the Netherlands are favored, one of the most compelling wagers focuses on an individual player's impact. Cody Gakpo consistently performs at a high level for the national team, making him a key figure in their attack.

Pick: Cody Gakpo to Score or Assist (+105)

Despite a mixed season at Liverpool, Gakpo transforms when playing for the Netherlands. With 20 goals in 48 appearances, he has proven to be a reliable threat in major competitions, scoring three times at the 2022 tournament and contributing significantly during the European qualifiers with four goals and four assists. His ability to deliver in crucial moments makes him a prime candidate to be involved in a goal.

Updated on 6/12/26

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Gakpo is most dangerous from the left wing, where he can leverage the Dutch transition game to his advantage. Surrounded by other talented attackers like Donyell Malen and Memphis Depay, he will have ample opportunities to either find the net himself or create chances for his teammates. Against a disciplined Japanese defense, Gakpo’s creativity and finishing will be the biggest threat to unlocking the game.

Analysis of the Match

This opening match is critical for both teams, as early momentum can define their path in the tournament. The Netherlands enter as one of the most successful nations never to have won the title and will be determined to start strong. They bring a squad filled with elite talent, from winger Cody Gakpo to captain Virgil van Dijk anchoring the defense. Japan, however, has a well-earned reputation as a giant-killer, consistently proving they can compete with top European sides.

The motivations are clear. For the Netherlands, anything less than a win would be a disappointment as they aim to dominate the group. For Japan, securing a point or more against their toughest group opponent would be a massive step toward the knockout stages. The Dutch are expected to control possession, using their technical midfielders to dictate the pace of the game and stretch Japan's defensive shape.

Stylistically, this matchup presents a fascinating contrast. The Netherlands will rely on patient build-up play, while Japan will likely adopt a disciplined mid-block, looking to absorb pressure and strike quickly on the counter-attack. The Dutch hold a significant physical advantage, especially on set pieces with towering players like Van Dijk, which could be a key factor in breaking down a compact Japanese defense.

Netherlands Analysis and Form

The Netherlands navigated their qualifying group with an undefeated record, showcasing their offensive firepower by scoring 27 goals in just eight matches. Their final warm-up games produced mixed results, including a 2-1 victory over Uzbekistan where Cody Gakpo scored twice, but also a 1-0 loss to Algeria. This suggests that while their attack is potent, their defense can occasionally be vulnerable.

Head coach Ronald Koeman is expected to deploy a fluid 4-3-3 formation designed to dominate possession. Midfielders like Frenkie de Jong and Ryan Gravenberch will be tasked with controlling the tempo and breaking through Japan's organized pressing. Defensively, the team is built around the leadership of Virgil van Dijk, whose presence provides stability and an aerial threat on set pieces.

The attacking trio of Gakpo, Memphis Depay, and Donyell Malen offers a blend of speed, creativity, and clinical finishing. While the team's defense showed some shakiness in pre-tournament friendlies, the Dutch possess more than enough offensive quality to outscore their opponents. If they can maintain their structure and execute in the final third, they have a strong chance to secure three points.

Japan Analysis and Form

Japan enters the tournament in excellent form, particularly on the defensive end. Their warm-up matches included impressive 1-0 victories over Scotland, England, and Iceland, demonstrating their ability to shut down strong European opposition. Having won their last six matches while keeping five clean sheets, the Samurai Blue have built considerable momentum.

Coach Hajime Moriyasu has instilled a pragmatic and highly disciplined tactical system. Japan excels without the ball, maintaining a compact defensive shape and launching coordinated counter-attacks. Against a possession-dominant team like the Netherlands, wide players such as Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Doan will be crucial in exploiting any space left by the advancing Dutch fullbacks.

In the midfield, Wataru Endo’s tactical intelligence is vital for disrupting opposing attacks, though his fitness is a concern. Forwards Koki Ogawa and Ayase Ueda provide the necessary sharpness up front. Japan will likely concede possession, patiently waiting for opportunities to strike on the break, making them a formidable and unpredictable opponent.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Here is a look at the potential team news and starting formations for both sides.

Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman has a fully fit squad to choose from and is expected to field his strongest lineup. Virgil van Dijk will captain the side and anchor the defense, while the attacking trio of Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, and Memphis Depay will lead the line.

Japan faces a significant concern over the fitness of key midfielder Wataru Endo, who has been recovering from a foot injury. If he is unable to start, Ao Tanaka is the likely candidate to step into the midfield alongside Daichi Kamada.

Netherlands Predicted Lineup (4-3-2-1)

Verbruggen; van de Ven, van Dijk, Ake, Dumfries; de Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders; Gakpo, Malen; Depay

Japan Predicted Lineup (3-4-3)

Suzuki; Ito, Tomiyasu, Itakura; Nakamura, Kamada, Tanaka, Doan; Ito, Kubo, Ueda

Netherlands and Japan Prediction

While the Netherlands enter as favorites, Japan's recent form and tactical discipline make them a dangerous opponent. The pricing on the moneyline for the Dutch seems a bit short, opening up value elsewhere.

Pick: Draw (+275)

In the last tournament, the Netherlands were similarly priced against Ecuador, a match that ended in a 1-1 draw. Ronald Koeman’s side has drawn five of their last 14 matches, particularly in games where they were not overwhelming favorites. This trend suggests they can be held by well-organized teams.

Japan is currently enjoying a seven-match unbeaten run and has historically performed well in the underdog role. Given that this is the opening match in a challenging group, a draw would be a satisfactory result for both teams. If the score is level late in the game, both sides may be content to share the points.

Netherlands and Japan Picks

Here are the top Netherlands vs Japan picks for this exciting Group F showdown.

• Best Bet: Cody Gakpo to Score or Assist (+105)
• Main Prediction: Draw (+275)

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson