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Soccer

2026 World Cup Odds: Spain Remains Favorite; Team USA Popular

Patrick Everson
Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Soccer Futures Odds

World Cup odds for 2026 have seen minor adjustments since Dec. 5, when the draw first came out. But there's no change at the top of the board.

With 100 days until kickoff, Spain is the favorite and a popular play in 2026 World Cup futures odds. But the Spanish side and everyone else will have to contend with an expanded field, going from 32 to 48 teams.

Below are current World Cup odds from BetMGM, followed by oddsmaker insights through three weeks. Check back regularly for updates

2026 World Cup Odds

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Here are the latest odds to win the Men's World Cup (Provided by Kalshi, updated every 30 minutes):

Spain Tops the Chart

Argentina is the defending champion, having won the 2022 World Cup in an exhilarating overtime/penalty-kicks shootout vs. France. The French opened as +600 co-favorites with Brazil in 2026 World Cup odds.

But three-plus months out, Spain is atop odds to win the 2026 World Cup at BetMGM. As of March 4, Spain is the +400 favorite, which is where the Spanish side has sat since the draw was released on Dec. 5.

"Spain has around 13% of the bets placed on the outright. But as of now, they're a positive result for the sportsbook," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said

The top handful of teams in World Cup futures.

  • Spain +400
  • England +550
  • France +700
  • Brazil +800
  • Argentina +800
  • Portugal +1100
  • Germany +1200
  • Netherlands +1600
  • Norway +2500
  • Italy +3300
  • Belgium +3300
  • Colombia +3300
  • Uruguay +4000
  • USA +5000
  • Mexico +5000

All others +6600 or greater. Odds subject to change. For more World Cup odds, check out bet365.

Will Spain Reign?

When 2026 World Cup futures opened, which in many cases was shortly after the 2022 tournament, Spain trailed a handful of teams.

BetMGM opened the Spanish side as the +1000 sixth choice. As noted above, France and Brazil were the +600 co-favorites, followed by England at +700, then defending champ Argentina and Germany at +900.

However, when the draw came out in December, Spain was all the way into the +400 favorite in 2026 World Cup odds. As noted above, that's where Spain sits now, on March 4.

England is the No. 2 choice and has actually improved slightly since December, moving from +600 to +550. France is a steady third choice at +700, with Brazil and Argentina rounding out the top five at +800.

"There's been a lot of England action. They have the most tickets," Magee said.

The top five in tickets in BetMGM's World Cup futures odds:

  • England
  • Spain
  • France
  • Portugal
  • Brazil

The top five in money in BetMGM's World Cup championship odds:

  • Spain
  • England
  • France
  • Portugal
  • Brazil

Portugal is among BetMGM's largest liabilities, as the +1100 sixth choice to lift the trophy this summer. Portugal opened +1400 and, as noted above, is No. 4 in bet count and money.

"Portugal is a team that's certainly capturing some attention from bettors. Portugal is second in liability for us at the moment," Magee said. "Right now, we'd love to see anyone but USA, England, France or Portugal lift the trophy.

"Germany is a great result for the book as it stands, if they can go on a run."

The largest liability? That would be one of the dark-horse hosts ...

USA a Popular Play

In the wake of the draw, the United State's men's national team got a noteworthy boost in 2026 World Cup futures odds. BetMGM had the U.S. at +6600 pre-draw, then went to +5000 in December, which is where the Stars & Stripes remain on March 4.

Still, that's well off Team USA's opening odds of +1800, the 10th choice. The U.S. is now behind 13 teams, joined by Mexico as the +5000 14th choice.

That said, the U.S. is No. 6 in ticket count and No. 7 in money at BetMGM.

"USA is our biggest liability for the tournament, and I imagine that will continue into the summer," Magee said. "The USA hosting the tournament definitely boosts interests in bets. And I think the closer we get, that interest is only going to get bigger."

In 2022, the U.S. lost to Netherlands 3-1 in the Round of 16, which then was the first knockout stage. With a 48-team field, the first knockout stage is the Round of 32. So Team USA will have to advance from Group D, then win an additional match to get to the 16s.

Flying Under the Radar

While the aforementioned teams are all drawing significant action, Magee pointed out a couple potential dark horses that would pay out much better in World Cup futures odds.

"I like a couple fliers on two South American sides: Colombia and Ecuador," he said. "Colombia has been in great form the last two years, led by Luis Diaz, who's looked great for Bayern this year, after leaving Liverpool."

Colombia can still be had at +3300, the co-10th choice along with Belgium. BetMGM opened Colombia +4000. As for the other South American dark horse:

"Ecuador went through all of CONMEBOL qualifying conceding only five goals," Magee said. "This is a stout defense with some world class talent, including Moises Caicedo and Willian Pacho. Piero Hincapie has also played some decent football for Arsenal this season)."

Ecuador opened at +10000 (100/1) and is now +6600 in BetMGM's odds to win the World Cup.

"Does Ecuador have enough to lift the trophy? Possibly, but at the very least, there's definitely some value on this side to make a run as far as the semifinals," Magee said.

High-Handle Expectations

Regardless of who ultimately wins, be it one of the favorites, an upstart USA team or someone else, 2026 World Cup odds are sure to drive a ton of tickets and money in June/July. When the event isn't held halfway around the world, American sportsbooks reap huge benefits.

"Expectations for next summer's World Cup are extremely high," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. "Having an extended tournament in a U.S. customer-friendly zone should result in this being the highest-handle soccer competition the industry has ever seen.

"It's going to be an action-packed six weeks, with only five rest days."

Betting on the World Cup

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World Cup Qualification

The 2026 World Cup qualification process has begun, but it's not yet finalized due to the expansion to 48 teams. That said, CONCACAF is expected to have six teams, which will include automatic qualifying bids for Canada, Mexico and the United States, as hosts.

Six confederations hold qualifying contests. Below is a list of leagues and the available slots each has to put a nation in the World Cup tournament.

  • AFC (Asia): 8
  • CAF (Africa): 9
  • CONCACAF (North/Central America & Caribbean): 6
  • CONMEBOL (South America): 6
  • OFC (Oceania): 1
  • UEFA (Europe): 16

Two more teams will be decided via a playoff.

World Cup Winners

Brazil has won five World Cups, more than any other nation. Germany, however, has been to eight finals, more than any other country.

Only clubs from UEFA and CONMEBOL have been to a World Cup Final. CAF, AFC, OFC and CONCACAF are still searching for their first finals appearance.

  • 2022 - Argentina 3, France 3; Argentina wins shootout 4-2 (Host: Qatar)
  • 2018 - France 4m, Croatia 2 (Host: Russia)
  • 2014 - Germany 1, Argentina 0 (Host: Brazil)
  • 2010 - Spain 1, Netherlands 0 (Host: South Africa)
  • 2006 - Italy 1, France 1; Italy wins shootout 5-3 (Host: Germany)
  • 2002 - Brazil 2, Germany 0 (Host: South Korea/Japan)

World Cup Past Top Goal Scorers

  • 2022 - Kylian Mbappe (8) - France
  • 2018 - Harry Kane (6) - England 
  • 2014 - James Rodriguez (6) - Colombia
  • 2010 - 4 Players Tied (5) *
  • 2006 - Miroslav Klose (5) - Germany
  • 2002 - Ronaldo (8) - Brazil

* - Diego Forlan (Uruguay), Wesley Sneijder (Netherlands), David Villa (Spain), and Thomas Muller (Germany)

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson
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