EPL MATCHDAY 27 PICKS, PREDICTIONS, ODDS
Toby Maxtone-Smith is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 27 fixtures that begin on Saturday, February 26 and conclude on Sunday, February 27.
LEEDS VS. TOTTENHAM
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Elland Road
- Location: Leeds, England
Score Prediction: Tottenham 2, Leeds 0
Best Bet: Tottenham ML (17/20)
Spurs have lost four of their last five games, and after Antonio Conte’s hints about his future following the midweek defeat to Burnley, morale is low at the club. They could be lifted, however, after this match away at Leeds. Tottenham struggle badly when the opposition deny them space - see their losses to Burnley and Wolves.
But against teams that are more open, such as Leeds or even Manchester City whom they beat 3-2 last weekend, Tottenham can get the best out of their star forwards Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. Leeds are in rotten form and have conceded 35 goals in their last 11 games. They have conceded the most shots of anyone in the league. This looks like a good match-up for the visitors.
BRIGHTON VS. ASTON VILLA
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Amex Stadium
- Location: Falmer, England
Score Prediction: Brighton 2, Aston Villa 1
Best Bet: Brighton DNB (4/6)
Following a good start under Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa’s results and performances have collapsed in recent weeks and there are a few grumblings of discontent among the club’s support. Those worries could deepen after their trip to Brighton. The Seagulls are often a frustrating team to back. They play well in most games yet have only won seven of their 25 league games, drawing a league-high 12.
But they have also been consistently better than Villa for most of the season. They are six points clear in the league and the expected goals model suggests that lead should be slightly bigger. They are 6/5 to win and that price might not adequately reflect the gap in quality this season. Back the hosts while keeping the draw onside.
BRENTFORD VS. NEWCASTLE
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Brentford Community Stadium
- Location: Brentford, England
Score Prediction: Brentford 2, Newcastle 2
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (13/10)
Brentford have been dragged into the relegation battle after securing just one point from seven matches. That run includes trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, however, so despite their form and Newcastle’s improvement, the visitors are probably too short to back at 2/1.
A win would put Newcastle above Brentford with a game in hand and their confidence will be high. That should lead to a more high-scoring game than bookmakers expect. Over 2.5 goals is generously priced at 13/10. Newcastle are more expansive than they were under Eddie Howe, and Brentford will see this as a match they need to win.
EVERTON VS. MANCHESTER CITY
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Goodison Park
- Location: Liverpool, England
Score Prediction: Manchester City 3, Everton 0
Best Bet: Manchester City -1.5 (8/11)
Manchester City are back in a title race after losing 3-2 to Tottenham last time out, but City under Guardiola are experts at bouncing straight back from bad results and Everton could be in the eye of a storm on Saturday. The Toffees were awful away to Southampton in a 2-0 defeat last weekend, losing the shots on target count 11-0.
Their two home results under Frank Lampard have both been very positive, but City are a wildly better team than Leeds and Brentford. City’s loss to Spurs was their first in the league since October and can probably be chalked up as a one-off blip. Nobody can win every game. City, however, win most and they should be very comfortable here.
WEST HAM VS. WOLVERHAMPTON
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 27
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Score Prediction: Wolverhampton 2, West Ham 1
Best Bet: Wolves DNB (13/8)
Wolves’s European hopes took a big blow on Thursday night as they conceded a last gasp winner away to Arsenal. It is a quick turnaround for another important trip to the capital to face West Ham, but they look good value to get a better result there. West Ham are not a team you want to be backing at 21/20 against a well-drilled team like Wolves; they are always better value in open games or as underdogs. West Ham have only won four of their last 15 games; Wolves have won double that number in that time. The visitors are worth backing.
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