EPL Matchday 28 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Toby Maxtone-Smith is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 28 fixtures that begin on Saturday, March 5 and conclude on Monday, March 7.


  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 5
  • Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Villa Park
  • Location: Birmingham, England

Score Prediction: Southampton 2, Aston Villa 1

Best BetSouthampton DNB (6/5)

Southampton have taken 11 points from their last five league games - a run that has included trips to Manchester United and Spurs and a home game against Manchester City. Their form has taken them into the top half of the table and they look good value outsiders away at Aston Villa. Villa have been very inconsistent since the turn of the year. They pulled out a good result away at Brighton last time out but performances have generally been very patchy. Southampton saw off West Ham 3-1 in the FA Cup in midweek and their performances have been consistently good for a while now. They look very backable.

Chelsea has kept a clean sheet in four of its last five PL matches when facing Burnley during the daytime. (AP)


  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 5
  • Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Turf Moor
  • Location: Burnley, England

Score Prediction: Chelsea 2, Burnley 0

Best BetDraw at Half-Chelsea ML 2H (3/1)

Chelsea have visited Turf Moor seven times in the Premier League era and have only dropped points on one occasion. Their most recent wins at Burnley have been 3-0, 4-2 and 4-0 but they may have to be a bit more patient this time around. In each of their last five league wins Chelsea have been level at half-time. They are still not attacking with great fluency, though things do seem to be improving a bit. Burnley will sit deep and be happy with a draw, and this game could pan out similarly to their win at Crystal Palace, where the Blues dominated and relied on substitutes to secure the points in the second half.


  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 5
  • Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Carrow Road
  • Location: Norwich, England

Score Prediction: Brentford 2, Norwich 1

Best BetBrentford ML (8/5)

Two promoted teams clash in a huge match in the relegation battle at Carrow Road. Brentford are on an alarming downward spiral having taken only one point from their last eight games. But they are not a club that hits the panic button and they can gain a crucial three points against Norwich. Despite the two sides’ respective turns in form, Brentford have been much better than Norwich this season. Their goal difference is 23 goals superior - almost a goal a game - and the expected goals model has them 19 points clear of the Canaries. Brentford’s bad run has involved a number of matches against very difficult opponents, and they are worth backing here.

The goal total has gone UNDER 2.5 in seven straight PL meetings. (AP)


  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 5
  • Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Molineux Stadium
  • Location: Wolverhampton, England

Score Prediction: Wolves 1, Crystal Palace 1

Best BetDraw (11/5)

Wolves have had a bad fortnight in their quest for the European places, losing to Arsenal and West Ham United. They could be in for more frustration against a London club when Crystal Palace come to Molineux. Despite the fact that Wolves’ 26 games have only seen 45 goals, they have drawn a mere four times. This is a statistical anomaly given that only five of those games have been decided by more than one goal. Their matches are cagey and they are excellent defensively. Palace have drawn the joint highest number of games this year with 12, and at 11/5 another stalemate looks like value.


  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 6
  • Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Vicarage Road
  • Location: Watford, England

Score Prediction: Arsenal 2, Watford 0

Best BetArsenal Win to Nil (7/5)

Arsenal have tightened up their defence very well since about December and it has been the springboard for their top four charge, for which they are now favourites ahead of Manchester United and Spurs. Another win and a clean sheet looks likely when they visit a Watford side who have only managed two goals in six games since Roy Hodgson took over as manager. There have been some good defensive displays in that run, such as the 0-0 draw at Man Utd, but Arsenal should have enough to get the job done. Ismaila Sarr is a big absentee for Watford in attack. Back an away win to nil.

Man City has won the second half in six of its last seven PL matches. (AP)


  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 6
  • Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium
  • Location: Manchester, England

Score Prediction: Manchester City 2, Manchester United 0

Best BetManchester ML-Under 3.5 (5/4)

Manchester United have trailed behind their ‘noisy neighbours’ for much of the last decade, but their recent record at the Etihad Stadium is impressive with only one defeat since 2014. United will aim to sit deep and hit City on the counter-attack just as Spurs did so successfully two weeks ago, but with the pressure now on in the title race it is less likely that the hosts will slip up. City have not quite been at their fluent best of late, edging past Peterborough and Everton 2-0 and 1-0 respectively over the last week. But they should be able to raise their game for the derby and get the win they need.