EPL Matchday 29 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Toby Maxtone-Smith is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 29 fixtures that begin on Saturday, March 12 and conclude on Monday, March 14.
BRIGHTON vs. LIVERPOOL
- Date: Saturday, Mar. 12
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Amex Stadium
- Location: Falmer, England
Score Prediction: Liverpool 2, Brighton 0
Best Bet: Liverpool ML & Under 3.5 (5/4)
Brighton find themselves firmly in lower mid-table after four consecutive losses. They were deservedly beaten by Manchester United, Burnley, Aston Villa and Southampton, and Liverpool may be similarly merciless when they visit the Amex Stadium. The Reds have won seven in a row in the league but they have generally had to work hard for those points.
Other than the 6-0 win over Leeds they have relied heavily on one-goal wins and late winners. They should be fine here, however. They have an impressive array of attacking talent and have a defence that is able to hang onto a lead. A low-scoring away win looks value.
BRENTFORD vs. BURNLEY
- Date: Saturday, Mar. 12
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Brentford Community Stadium
- Location: Brentford, England
Score Prediction: Brentford 2, Burnley 1
Best Bet: Brentford ML (23/20)
Brentford arrested their alarming slide into the relegation battle with a 3-1 win over Norwich last weekend and they look decent value to pull further clear of the bottom three with a win against Burnley. The Clarets have only won three games all season and so even at 13/5 cannot really be trusted to win here.
They were woefully open in the second half of their 4-0 home loss to Chelsea on Saturday. Brentford’s bad run of losses came during a period of very tough fixtures in which they suffered a severe injury crisis; in general their performances this year have been far too good to warrant a relegation battle and they have key players like Ivan Toney back fit. At a shade of odds against, they are worth trusting here.
MANCHESTER UNITED vs. TOTTENHAM
- Date: Saturday, Mar. 12
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Location: Manchester, England
Score Prediction: Manchester United 2, Tottenham 1
Best Bet: Manchester United ML (7/5)
Despite their inconsistency Tottenham have been a relatively easy team to predict under Antonio Conte: they are good in games where they can sit deep and counter-attack and bad when the onus is on them to create the play. On paper, then, this fixture at Manchester United looks perfect for them.
However they market may have overreacted to their 5-0 win over Everton, and United look reasonably fairly priced to win this match. They have a vastly more talented squad than Spurs and won the reverse fixture 3-0. United home games are often tight and Ralf Rangnick is unlikely to play straight into Tottenham’s hands. The price of 7/5 implies that United are a slightly worse team than Spurs, and that is surely not the case.
CHELSEA vs. NEWCASTLE
- Date: Sunday, Mar. 13
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Stamford Bridge
- Location: London, England
Score Prediction: Chelsea 2, Newcastle 0
Best Bet: Draw at Halftime-Chelsea at Fulltime (3/1)
Chelsea are in turmoil off the pitch with their bank accounts frozen amid the incoming sale of the club by Roman Abramovich, but they are in good form on the pitch having won all three league games since the international break. Newcastle present a difficult challenge on Sunday given their excellent form of six wins in their last seven.
But that run has come against much worse teams than Chelsea, and the Blues can continue their good form by winning on Sunday. Chelsea were excellent in the first half against Norwich on Thursday night, but generally are slow to get going in games. All six of their previous six league wins had come after being level at half-time, including last weekend’s 4-0 win over Burnley. They are excellent at maintaining control over games and can rely on a strong bench to change games when needed.
LEEDS vs. NORWICH
- Date: Sunday, Mar. 13
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Elland Road
- Location: Leeds, England
Score Prediction: Leeds 3, Norwich 1
Best Bet: Leeds ML & Over 2.5 (5/4)
Leeds will be earmarking this home game against Norwich as an absolute must-win following a horrendous run of six consecutive defeats. In those matches the Whites have scored only once and conceded an incredible 21 goals. Norwich, however, are definitely the weakest team in the league and look consigned to relegation following last weekend’s defeat to Brentford. Leeds have generally been more effective at picking up points against weaker teams than overperforming against the league’s top sides. Despite their bad form these players have experience of performing at a high level in the Premier League.
WEST HAM vs. ASTON VILLA
- Date: Sunday, Mar. 13
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Score Prediction: West Ham 1, Aston Villa 1
Best Bet: Draw (9/4)
West Ham and Aston Villa both played crucial matches in midweek with West Ham losing 1-0 to Sevilla in the Europa League and Villa coming away 3-0 winners from Leeds United. At first glance the Irons look a big price here at 7/5. They are nine points above Villa in the table and are priced as if they would be slight underdogs on a neutral ground.
But the second leg against Sevilla will definitely take priority for David Moyes, and the best bet here is probably a draw. Only two West Ham home games all year have been decided by more than one goal, and Villa have been solid defensively of late.
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