EPL Matchday 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for EPL Matchday 3 fixtures that begin on Saturday, August 20th and conclude on Monday, August 22nd.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Saturday, August 20th
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Crystal Palace ML (+155)
Having dispensed with former midfield foe Frank Lampard last weekend, Steven Gerrard will now take on another in Patrick Vieira.
Gerrard’s second match in charge of Aston Villa last season was at Selhurst Park and his side won 2-1. The odds of a repeat are not in their favor, though, with Crystal Palace narrow favorites.
However, the underlying data suggests the home side should be around +100 so backing them looks to be the value play of the week. If Villa turn in a similar performance as in their previous away game (a 2-0 loss at Bournemouth), Palace should win comfortably.
Fulham vs. Brentford
- Date: Saturday, August 20th
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Brentford ML (+195)
Fulham have had an encouraging start to 2022/23, drawing against both Liverpool and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Had Aleksandar Mitrovic not missed a penalty against the latter, they might have won that match too.
However, disregard their two penalties and they have mustered roughly one expected goal from their two games. Considering Brentford got a point at Leicester and then blew Manchester United away, it seems surprising that the home side are favorites here.
The Bees only lost twice on the road against the bottom 11 teams last season and will be buzzing after their humbling of United. They can keep Fulham quiet and pinch a winner.
Leicester City vs. Southampton
- Date: Saturday, August 20th
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: King Power Stadium
- Location: Leicester, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-165)
This season has started in similar fashion for Leicester and Southampton. Both have suffered a defeat while conceding four goals in North London, and each had a 2-2 draw in their opening home game of the campaign.
They were also both in the bottom seven of the Premier League for goals conceded last season and haven’t improved yet. In short, expect goals here.
At the time of writing, Over 2.5 Goals has slightly better odds than backing Both Teams to Score, but both look like very solid choices so pick accordingly when placing your bet.
Leeds United vs. Chelsea
- Date: Sunday, August 21st
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Elland Road
- Location: Leeds, England
Best Bet: Chelsea to win and Leeds United not to score (+170)
Leeds United had an abysmal record against the Premier League top six last season, losing all 12 matches while amassing a -39 goal differential.
Nine of the defeats occurred under previous manager Marcelo Bielsa rather than Jesse Marsch. However, the American oversaw a 3-0 home loss to Chelsea in May, and this match should be similar.
Although Chelsea conceded twice against Tottenham last weekend, Thomas Tuchel felt both goals should have been disallowed. The Blues’ boss will be confident his team can win and keep a clean sheet in this match.
West Ham United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- Date: Sunday, August 21st
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Draw (+240)
Brighton should have comfortably beaten Newcastle last weekend. They generated 1.6 expected goals while allowing just 0.2 in return, yet the match ended 0-0.
This is standard behaviour for Graham Potter’s side though. Brighton drew 15 matches last season, the joint-most in the Premier League, and they deserved to win many of them.
Although they beat West Ham 3-1 when the teams last met, the six meetings prior to that all ended level. This looks to be the most probable draw in match week three.
Newcastle United vs. Manchester City
- Date: Sunday, August 21st
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: St. James Park
- Location: Newcastle on Tyne, England
Best Bet: Manchester City to win and Newcastle United not to score (+120)
Manchester City have started the 2022/23 season as many would have expected, with six points, six goals scored and none conceded.
Yet despite their skinny price to win their match with Newcastle, their odds should be even shorter. The home side had a good record in the second half of last season, but their underlying statistics did not justify the results.
City beat the Magpies 4-0 and 5-0 last season, and while it might be closer this time their spotless defensive record should hold. Backing them to win and Newcastle not to score offers better odds than a straight money line bet and should occur all the same.
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