EPL Matchday 7 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 7 fixtures that begin on Saturday, September 10.
Fulham vs. Chelsea
- Date: Saturday, September 10
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-145)
The records of Fulham and Chelsea contain a strange quirk this season. Neither team is in
the top seven for total goals (scored plus conceded), yet both have seen over 2.5 goals in
five of their six matches, the joint-most.
Remarkably, both teams’ last three league matches have all ended 2-1 to they or their
opponents. As such, it’s little surprise that Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ and Over 2.5 goals are
identically priced at -145 at the time of writing.
Either looks a sensible selection but the stats for 2022/23 suggest there’s marginally more
chance of the latter bet being successful. Chelsea usually negotiates this west London derby
with ease, but it won’t be so straight forward this time around.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brighton and Hove Albion
- Date: Saturday, September 10
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Brighton ML + Bournemouth Under 0.5 Goals (-140)
This fixture sees one of the biggest statistical mismatches likely to occur in the whole of
2022/23. Bournemouth are bottom of the Premier League for expected goal difference in
home matches, while Brighton have been second best on the road.
Two of the three teams the Seagulls have faced away from the Amex Stadium finished in the
top seven last season too. They haven’t padded their stats against weaker opposition.
Brighton have only conceded three times in those matches and two were own goals. They
should win at Bournemouth without conceding.
Leicester City vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Saturday, September 10
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: King Power Stadium
- Location: Leicester, England
Best Bet: Draw (+240)
This match is a clash between the two front runners in the ‘next manager to leave their
post’ betting market, and it is made spicier by the fact Brendan Rodgers and Steven Gerrard
worked together to almost carry Liverpool to an unlikely league title in 2014.
A heavy defeat for either could spell the end of their tenure, particularly if it is Leicester on
the wrong end of a thumping. Yet the underlying data from last season forecasts this match
as a draw and the limited numbers we have for this campaign do likewise.
Two of the last four meetings at the King Power ended 0-0 and another needed a 91 st
minute goal to secure a 1-0 away win. This looks the most likely draw in this match week
and a point apiece won’t particularly help either side.
Southampton vs. Brentford
- Date: Saturday, September 10
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: St. Mary's Stadium
- Location: Southampton, England
Best Bet: Brentford ML (+195)
The way Brentford have been playing this season, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from having a
bet on over 3.5 goals at +190. They have already had four matches where that has paid out
(with 5-2, 2-3, 4-0 and 2-2 score lines), the joint-most in the EPL so far this season.
However, an away win has slightly better odds, and the expected goal data thinks they
should be the favourites rather than Southampton.
The Saints’ numbers will be influenced by having had to play two of the league’s big six clubs
at home already, but as Brentford are the joint-second top scoring team in the division, they
should have too much for Southampton.
Arsenal vs. Everton
- Date: Sunday, September 11
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Arsenal ML + Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
Arsenal suffered their first defeat of the season at Old Trafford last weekend. While they
were hit on the break too easily in the second half, Mikel Arteta’s side missed a couple of
clear-cut chances and might have remained unbeaten.
They will be delighted to see Everton at home as their next league fixture. Although the
Blues won 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium in April 2021, they have also lost 5-1 twice in their
last five trips.
The Gunners’ match in Zurich on Thursday may take a toll, but the form of themselves and
Everton suggests a home win with plenty of goals is on the cards on Sunday.
West Ham United vs. Newcastle
- Date: Sunday, September 11
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Newcastle ML (+190)
Even when Newcastle were not very good, under their previous ownership, they still had a
strong record against West Ham. They have only lost one of the last six league meetings and
have three wins and a draw to show for their last five visits to the London Stadium.
With West Ham playing FCSB in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night, they face
a tight turnaround for this match on Sunday. The circumstances favour Newcastle and so
does the underlying xG data, so we’ll take an away win here.
Soccer News
