EPL Matchday 16 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 16 fixtures that begin on Saturday, November 12th.
Bournemouth vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, November 12
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Draw (+240)
Bournemouth and Everton enter the final weekend before the 2022 World Cup side-by-side in the Premier League table and just one point apart.
They are also joint-fourth and third respectively when it comes to drawn matches. The last time they met on the south coast, Bournemouth won 3-1 in one of their better results from their relegation campaign. But two of the four clashes prior to that were drawn and the others were settled by a single goal.
With Everton’s matches light on goals at both ends they are always strong candidates for a draw bet, and that looks the best option for them this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Leeds United
- Date: Saturday, November 12
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Both teams to score: Yes (-140)
Tottenham have developed a very annoying habit of starting matches poorly before roaring back in the second half. Sometimes they recover and other times not, but it ensures they play a lot of goal-heavy games in which both teams score.
Only Fulham have played more Premier League matches in 2022/23 in which the latter has paid out, and Leeds United are high in that table too.
This fixture ended 2-1 last season and that outcome is among the favourites in the correct score market this time. Such things are always very hard to predict whereas both teams scoring looks a certainty.
Newcastle vs. Chelsea
- Date: Saturday, November 12
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: St James’ Park
- Location: Newcastle, England
Best Bet: Newcastle ML (+135)
Newcastle United are the form team in the Premier League, with the best record over the last six games, and the longest current unbeaten run of nine matches. Even their one defeat this season only occurred thanks to a 98th minute winner by Liverpool.
While they are rightly favourites to beat Chelsea, the expected goal data for 2022/23 suggests their price should be negative rather than positive (which it is at the time of writing).
The Blues were woeful at Brighton in their previous away league game, drew 0-0 at Brentford prior to that and were very fortunate to beat Aston Villa on their patch a month ago. Nothing in their form suggests they can win this match, so back Newcastle.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Arsenal
- Date: Saturday, November 12
- Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Venue: Molineux
- Location: Wolverhampton, England
Best Bet: Arsenal win to nil (+170)
Arsenal have visited Wolves three times under Mikel Arteta and twice returned south with a win and a clean sheet.
The exception saw a 2-1 home win and two red cards for the Gunners, in February 2021, but that is unlikely to be repeated with Wolves looking so goal-shy this season. Granted, they did score twice last weekend but that still only gave them eight goals from 14 league matches this term.
And Arsenal won to nil away from home last week too. If they can hold Chelsea to 0.3 expected goals, which they did, they should be able to keep toothless Wolves at bay and win without conceding.
Brighton vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Sunday, November 13
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: American Express Community Stadium
- Location: Brighton, England
Best Bet: Brighton win to nil (+225)
Unai Emery’s time in charge of Aston Villa began with a fantastic 3-1 win over Manchester United, their first victory at home over the Red Devils in the league since 1995.
But it’s important to note that they generated just 0.5 expected goals. Scoring twice in the opening 11 minutes played into that somewhat, but in Brighton they will face one of the best teams for underlying process in the Premier League (which Erik ten Hag’s United are not yet).
Villa have struggled to create chances, particularly away from home, so Brighton should be able to win this match while also keeping a clean sheet. The Seagulls will have an extra day to prepare for this game, which can only help their chances.
Fulham vs. Manchester United
- Date: Sunday, November 13
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals (+170)
The final Premier League match before the whole thing shuts down for the World Cup is one of the most difficult to predict this weekend.
Maybe Manchester United flex the financial muscle of their squad and easily beats a team which was in the Championship last season? Or perhaps Fulham make advantage of their week to prepare – United play in the League Cup on Thursday – and spring a surprise?
Either way, there should be goals. Both team’s matches have averaged 3.43 when at home or away as appropriate in 2022/23. With something of an end of term feel, this could be very chaotic, so let’s get set for Qatar with an over 3.5 goals classic.
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