UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Predictions, Picks, Odds
Toby Maxtone-Smith is back for best bets, predictions and picks for UEFA Champions League Round of 16 fixtures that continue on Tuesday, March 15 and conclude on Wednesday, March 16.
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MANCHESTER UNITED vs. ATLETICO MADRID
- Date: Tuesday, Mar. 15
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Location: Manchester, England
Score Prediction: Manchester United 2, Atletico Madrid 1
Best Bet: Manchester United ML (23/20)
Atlético Madrid were probably the better team in the first leg against Manchester United, but Anthony Elanga’s equaliser may prove crucial, and the Red Devils look decent value 23/20 favourites to win the second leg in normal time. The two sides have very similar domestic records this season. United have 50 points from 29 games and Atleti have 51 from 28.
But the Premier League is significantly superior to La Liga at the moment, yet this match is priced as if the two sides would be impossible to split on a neutral ground. United come into this match in a good mood after beating Spurs 3-2 and they should have the firepower to get past an Atletico side that is more defensively leaky than usual.
AJAX vs BENFICA
- Date: Tuesday, Mar. 15
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena
- Location: Amsterdam, Netherlands
Score Prediction: Ajax 1, Benfica 1
Best Bet: Benfica +1.5 (10/11)
Ajax are well-liked by bettors in this year’s Champions League having won all six group games. They have also won 20 of their 26 league games, but Benfica look underrated here. They outshot Ajax 17-11 in the first leg, which ended 2-2, and were good enough to knock Barcelona out in the group stages. Ajax’s recent results have been patchy, with single goal wins over RKC Waalwijk, Cambuur and Willem II and a 2-1 loss at Go Ahead Eagles making up their last four games. Benfica have had an average domestic campaign, but Ajax are surely too short at 4/11. Benfica on the handicap look the bet.
LILLE vs. CHELSEA
- Date: Wednesday, Mar. 16
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy
- Location: Lille, France
Score Prediction: Chelsea 1, Lille 0
Best Bet: Chelsea ML (17/20)
Despite the tumult off the pitch, Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea seem to be well over their winter slump. They have won nine and drawn two of their last 11 90 minute games, with one of those draws being the rather undeserved League Cup final defeat to Liverpool. They eased past Lille in the first leg 2-0 thanks to goals from Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic, and it is Havertz’s form in particular that is a real source of encouragement for Chelsea.
The German forward has four goals in his last three games. Chelsea have conceded only three goals in eight Champions League knockout ties under Tuchel. Lille showed enough in the first leg to remove any complacency from Chelsea players’ minds, and given the gap in quality an away win at a shade of odds-on seems fair enough.
JUVENTUS vs. VILLARREAL
- Date: Wednesday, Mar. 16
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Allianz Stadium
- Location: Torino, Italy
Score Prediction: Juventus 1, Villarreal 1
Best Bet: Draw (12/5)
Juventus got off to a flying start away to Villarreal with new forward Dusan Vlahovic scoring in the first minute, but the rest of the match was a long, hard grind for The Old Lady and Villarreal were well worth their 66th minute equaliser. The match produced an xG of only 1.46 and there were only 16 shots all game, so the draw should come into your thinking when having a bet on the return leg.
Villarreal held Chelsea to a draw at full-time in this year’s Super Cup as well as taking Manchester United all the way in their victorious Europa League final last year. Juve have won their last three Serie A games but recent draws with Atalanta and AC Milan are a reminder that their biggest games can be very tight. This is likely to follow a similar pattern.
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