UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

Adesanya vs. Whitaker 2 is next up on the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC) schedule and it’s a big one as two former rivals are set to clash once again with the middleweight crown on the line. 

UFC 271 is scheduled for February 12, 2022 at the Toyota Center of Houston, Texas.

A 185-pound championship rematch between current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and former champ Robert Whittaker is set to serve as the event’s headliner. The pair previously met at UFC 243 where Adesanya came out victorious via second-round knockout. Meanwhile, Whittaker has won three straight since.

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UFC 271 BEST BETS

UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS. ROBERT WHITTAKER

Adesanya and Whittaker are set to lock horns once again at UFC 271. The fight is an intriguing one as it will be Adesanya’s hardest test since challenging, and losing to, former 205-pound champ Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259. Whittaker has been dusting all competition since losing to Adesanya and he is looking for revenge. This rematch is also one between two strikers which means we might be in for a finish on either side.

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 ODDS

Adesanya opened as a moderate -250 favorite (bet $250 to win $100). The steam has been coming in on the champion’s side resulting in ‘Izzy’ now being priced at -300. The champion was priced at pick’em odds in his first meeting with rival Robert Whittaker.

Speaking of Whittaker, the former champion is currently the underdog in the second scheduled meeting between Adesanya and himself. You can grab ‘Bobby Knuckles’ at +240 (bet $100 to win $240) at BetMGM. Whitakker and Adesanya have their rematch in the main event of UFC 271 on February 12.

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 ODDS COMPARISON

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 IN-DEPTH

Israel Adesanya

The current 185-pound champion has closed at average odds of -213 throughout his 11 fights under the UFC mantle. Prior to bearing the crown at middleweight he had six outings in which he closed at average odds of -200 (bet $200 to win $100). Since stopping Whittaker to claim middleweight gold Adesanya has fought as defending champion thrice with average closing odds of -250.

Adesanya had an unsuccessful middleweight intermission in which he moved up to light heavyweight to challenge former champion Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound title. Adesanya closed as a -250 favorite and lost via unanimous decision.

Adesanya is about as pure a striker as you’re going to get in MMA. He has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has never won via submission. Israel has been a finisher historically with 15 knockouts in 21 wins (71% finish rate). He has six wins via decision. In the UFC ‘Izzy’ has a record of 10-1 with four wins by knockout and six via decision, (40% finish rate).

Average closing odds for Adesanya to win inside the distance is +143 (bet $100 to win $143). He stopped Whittaker in their previous encounter in round two.

Adesanya's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-133) vs. Marvin Vettori (+122)

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
(LOSS) Israel Adesanya (-250) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+200)

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-189) vs. Paulo Costa (+162)

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-303) vs. Yoel Romero (+240)

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-110) vs. Robert Whittaker (-110)

A $100 stake on Adesanya in all of his last five outings would have netted you $150 (30% ROI).

Robert Whittaker

Robert Whittaker looks to redeem himself as he takes on Israel Adesanya for the second time at UFC 271.

The former champion has closed at average odds of -105 (bet $105 to win $100) in his 16 UFC bouts. Whittaker has been priced at plus money in eight UFC bouts and has cashed as the ‘dog seven times.

Whittaker is 23-5 in MMA (14-3 in the UFC) with nine wins by knockout, five by submission and nine via decision. ‘Bobby Knuckles’ has a finish rate of 61%. In the UFC he has won five of 14 victories inside the distance for a finish rate of 36%. The decision is Whittaker’s preferred method of victory in the UFC with nine decision wins in 14 bouts.

Whittaker’s skill set is well-rounded compared to Adesanya. He has wrestling ability but mainly works on the feet where he has a karate stance with hands low and sharp counters.

Whittaker's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
(WIN) Robert Whittaker (-303) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+240)

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
(WIN) Robert Whittaker (+100) vs. Jared Cannonier (-125)

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
(WIN) Robert Whittaker (-164) vs. Darren Till (+137)

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
(LOSS) Robert Whittaker (-110) vs. Israel Adesanya (-110)

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
(WIN) Robert Whittaker (-275) vs. Yoel Romero (+235)

A $100 stake on Whittaker in all of his last five outings would have netted you $129 (25.8% ROI).

UFC 243 - ISRAEL ADESANYA VS ROBERT WHITTAKER 1

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 STRIKING STATS

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 TALE OF THE TAPE

UFC 271: ADESANYA VS. WHITTAKER 2 PREDICTION

Since 2018 rematches have produced the same winners as their preceding bouts. 65% of the time the winners of the first fight walks away victorious in the second. Rematches in title fights have produced more evenly results as the win probability is split almost evenly between both fighters of the previous encounters. 13 title-fight rematches have taken place since 2018 with winners of the first winning seven and losers redeeming themselves in six of those 13.

In short, betting on the underdogs of title-fight rematches appears to be more historically profitable as losers of preceding bouts are more likely to be priced as underdogs. However if we are going for accuracy the winner of the first fight tends to run away with the second more often than not, whichever way you look at the data.

Matchup-wise the fight against Whittaker favors Adesanya greatly. Whittaker is a striking fighter who likes to dart in and unload combinations. Adesanya’s reach advantage allows him to pick opponents off when they close the distance. He has a six-inch reach advantage over his former rival.

Whittaker’s game plan was atrocious in the first fight. He was rushing his shots and forcing the action on Adesanya who is a plotting counter puncher. Robert didn’t find the target at the end of his punches and most of the time when he was rushing in he didn’t quite have his feet under him. He got caught in round two and was finished.

Adesanya just seems like a more complete striker. On paper his striking rules supreme with a better striking defense and a higher striking accuracy compared to his counterpart. He also absorbs less punches on average and has a slightly higher striking differential than Whittaker.

Robert is the younger fighter but his long career makes him older in fight years. He has been chin checked in wars with Yoel Romero, Darren Till and most recently by Adesanya. He was also on skates for a second there against Jared Cannonier. The durability is a question mark for me in this fight. Meanwhile Adesanya looks like he takes a shot well, and even managed to go the distance against Jan Blachowicz at 205-pounds. I don’t think Whittaker could ever be capable of something like that.

Robert is not a stationary target like Romero or Costa and he does fire some kicks of his own which is a big advantage. However the reach discrepancy is too big and he needs to close that distance to land on the chin of Adesanya. ‘Izzy’ can wait for him to come in once again and counter.

Robert has a karate style of fighting with his hands low and he rarely brings his hands up to protect his chin when he unloads combinations.

The chin is there if Adesanya wants it. I think he gets the finish once again.

Adesanya-Whittaker 2 Prediction: Israel Adesanya via Knockout (+120)

UFC HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT
DERRICK LEWIS VS. TAI TUIVASA

The heavywight division’s no. 3 and 4 are scheduled to throw down in the co-main event of UFC 271. Brunson is on a roll as of late winning five consecutive bouts whereas the road to 185-pounds has been rocky for the hard-hitting Cannonier. The matchup is interesting for fans of the sport due to the clashing styles at play. Brunson wants to wrestle and Cannonier wants to strike.

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA ODDS

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA ODDS COMPARISON

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA IN-DEPTH

Derrick Lewis

Hard-hitting heavyweight finisher Derrick Lewis always puts on a show for the fans. In 17 UFC wins he has won via knockout 13 times, giving him a UFC finish rate of 76%.

Lewis has a profitable history as an underdog however he is undertaking the role of the favorite this weekend as he takes on Tai Tuivasa. Lewis has closed as the favorite in just nine of his 23 UFC outings. In those fights he has a record of 7-2.

As an underdog Lewis is 6-3 for a win rate of 66%.

Lewis’ average closing odds in the UFC are +115. He is definitely in EV if you’ve backed ‘The Black Beast’ throughout his UFC tenure.

The preferred method of victory for Lewis is obviously the knockout with an aforementioned 76% UFC finish rate and a career-wide 85% finish rate. At the same time when Lewis loses, it is usually inside the distance. Six of his eight total career losses have come by way of finish. In the UFC all six of Lewis’ losses have come by way of knockout.

Just four of Derrick’s 23 UFC bouts have seen the scorecards. Average closing odds of a Derrick Lewis fight to not go the distance are -357 meanwhile average odds for Lewis to win by knockout are +160.

Lewis' UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+110) vs. Chris Daukaus (-160)

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
(LOSS) Derrick Lewis (+275) vs. Ciryl Gane (-357)

UFC Fight Night 185: Blaydes vs. Lewis
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+250) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-390)

UFC on ESPN+ 32: Lewis vs. Oleinik
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (-210) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+175)

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (-250) vs. Ilir Latifi (+195)

A $100 stake on Lewis in all of his last five outings would have netted you $347 (69.4% ROI).

Tai Tuivasa

‘Bam Bam’ Tai Tuivasa burst onto the big scene in 2018 with a three-fight winning streak in the UFC. His hype train would be brought to a halt in his next three however as the youngster lost three in a row from 2018 to 2019. Since snapping his losing streak against Stefan Struve, Tuivasa has been on a roll with wins in four consecutive bouts. He most recently battered Brazilian prospect Augusto Sakai via second-round knockout at UFC 269.

Tuivasa has an exciting fighting style with an emphasis on finishes. His 92% career finish rate means fans can usually tune in to see him deliver a knockout followed by the traditional shoey.

Tai has closed at average odds of -154 throughout his run in the UFC. Only once has he closed as the underdog in his career.

It seems that Tuivasa’s high finish rate has transitioned well into the UFC as he has finished six of seven UFC wins via knockout.

Tuivasa's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
(WIN) Tai Tuivasa (-125) vs. Augusto Sakai (+100)

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
(WIN) Tai Tuivasa (-125) vs. Greg Hardy (+100)

UFC on ESPN 21: Brunson vs. Holland
(WIN) Tai Tuivasa (-455) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+350)

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
(WIN) Tai Tuivasa (-152) vs. Stefan Struve (+125)

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
(LOSS) Tai Tuivasa (-303) vs. Sergey Spivak (+240)

A $100 stake on Tuivasa in all of his last five outings would have netted you $147 (29.4% ROI).

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA STRIKING STATS

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA TALE OF THE TAPE

UFC 271: LEWIS VS. TUIVASA PREDICTION

Tuivasa is the younger man by nine years and also possesses the larger striking differential of the two. Just going by those metrics, Tuivasa wins this fight 73% of the time. Fighters with the same advantages have beaten their older counterparts in 19 of 26 bouts spanning all the way back to 2018.

Lewis is a big finisher but his low volume usually puts him in the passenger’s seat. Tuivasa lands almost double what Lewis averages in output on average. If Lewis doesn’t close the show early that volume is going to take its toll on ‘The Black Beast’ at some point.

There is a question mark regarding Tuivasa’s four-fight winning streak. Apart from Sakai none of the guys he has beaten reside at the top of the division. However, as the old saying goes, you can only beat who is put in front of you. To my knowledge Tuivasa has not pulled out of any scheduled bout in the UFC yet. To my knowledge the opposite actually happens to be the fact; Tuivasa has had opponents pulling out on two occasions before.

Lewis has what I call the ‘Francis Ngannou’ effect. To explain, his power usually slows down the pace of the fights he’s in and makes his opponents far more cautious and gunshy. This usually works to his advantage as he can take the center of the octagon and start pressing forward.

Against power punchers you never want to have your back on the cage - we just saw Daukaus succumbing to the consequences of that. Lewis is used to getting the center and walking forward and if you take that privilege away from him he finds himself in an uncomfortable situation.

Ciryl Gane was able to turn the tables on Lewis and start pressuring in the later rounds beautifully - he ended up finishing Derrick.

Tai has shown that he can pressure and take the center - I think he put on a masterclass against a timid Augusto Sakai in his last outing. Lewis can turn into a defensive shell when he is pressured heavily and I think that is what Tai needs to force out of Lewis if he wants to win.

Generally I also like Lewis in the role of the underdog. He just isn’t a guy I believe has a particularly great fighting IQ, but that can be recency bias. Tuivasa doesn’t strike me as a guy with a lot of octagon intelligence either, but at least the plus money makes him the valued side to back.

Heavyweight fights always have a certain amount of randomness involved in the outcomes - most of the time fights end inside the distance. For that simple reason the value resides with the underdog in this weight class most of the time.

Youth and striking stats are in overwhelming favor of Tuivasa. Lewis always has a puncher’s chance but so does Tuivasa. This will be a fun one regardless.

Lewis-Tuivasa Prediction: Tai Tuivasa ML (+165)

UFC 271 ODDS & BOUTS

The UFC 271 card is expected to have 14 fights on tap for the Feb. 12 card from Houston, Texas.

MAIN CARD

• Middleweight Bout: Israel Adesanya (-300) vs. Robert Whittaker (+240)
• Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis (-200) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+165)
• Middleweight Bout: Jared Cannonier (-175) vs. Derek Brunson (+145)
• Bantamweight Bout: Kyler Phillips (-350) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+260)
• Lightweight Bout: Bobby Green (-165) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+140)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski (-185) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+150)
• Women's Flyweight Bout: Roxanne Modafferi (+300) vs. Casey O'Neill (-400)
• Flyweight Bout: Alex Perez (-400) vs. Matt Schnell (+300)
• Light Heavyweight Bout: William Knight (+155) vs. Maxim Grishin (-200)

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD

• Bantamweight Bout: Mana Martinez (+230) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-300)
• Lightweight Bout: Alexander Hernandez (+140) vs. Renato Moicano (-165)
• Light Heavyweight Bout: Carlos Ulberg (-200) vs. Fabio Cherant (+165)
• Middleweight Bout: A.J. Dobson (-160) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+130)
• Bantamweight Bout: Douglas Silva de Andrade (+190) vs. Sergey Morozov (-225)
• Welterweight Bout: Jeremiah Wells (-240) vs. Mike Mathetha (+195)

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson