UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

July 21, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

After watching Islam Makhachev's clinical grappling on full display against Thiago Moises last weekend the UFC can entice the fans with some striking this Saturday, as 135 lb prospect Cory Sandhagen takes on two time former Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw in the main event of UFC Vegas 32.

UFC Vegas 32 Fight Card

• Bantamweight Bout: Cory Sandhagen (-190) vs. TJ Dillashaw (+160)
• Bantamweight Bout: Kyler Phillips (-300) vs. Raulian Paiva (+240)
• Featherweight Bout: Darrick Minner (-155) vs. Darren Elkins (+130)
• Women's Flyweight Bout: Miranda Maverick (-135) vs. Maycee Barber (+110)
• Bantamweight Bout: Adrian Yanez (-250) vs. Randy Costa (+200)
• Middleweight Bout: Punahele Soriano (-110) vs. Brendan Allen (-110)
• Middleweight Bout: Ian Heinisch (-150) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+125)
• Welterweight Bout: Jordan Williams (-175) vs. Mickey Gall (+145)
• Bantamweight Bout: Julio Arce (-200) vs. Andre Ewell (+170)
• Women's Flyweight Bout: Sijara Eubanks (TBA) vs. Elise Reed (TBA)
• Women's Strawweight: Hannah Goldy (-115) vs. Diana Belbita (-105)

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

UFC Vegas 32 Main Event Prediction

Bantamweight Bout
Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw

Dillashaw makes his UFC return after a two year hiatus, imposed by USADA after the former champion tested positive for an EPO. During Dillashaw’s hiatus, Sandhagen has been storming through the 135 lb division with four wins in five fights, including wins over divisional veteran Raphael Assuncao, elite striker Marlon Moraes, and UFC legend Frankie Edgar.

With an extensive background in wrestling and good credentials as a striker in the UFC, Dillashaw’s game is very well-rounded. The former champion usually keeps his fights standing, but has a good ground game to fall back on if push comes to shove.

Now, let’s get to Cory Sandhagen. Take away Dillashaw’s wrestling base while adding some well-versed striking and you’ve got the 29-year old ‘Sandman’.

Sandhagen is predominantly a striker, and his grappling isn’t as big a part of his game as it is for Dillashaw. Sandhagen doesn’t have particularly good takedown defense, but sprawls quite well on the ground, and usually manages to get back to his feet somehow. With that said, Sandhagen will definitely look to keep this fight on the feet to win. Dillashaw has the better ground game.

On the feet this is a whole other story, and Sandhagen’s well-rounded striking arsenal will be too much for the former champion. Dillashaw has had a long career and he has a lot of miles on his chin. He has been knocked out twice and dropped thrice in the UFC, and in his last outing against Cejudo his chin seemed uncharacteristically weak - granted he had cut a lot of weight for that fight.

One factor X in this fight is obviously the layoff for Dillashaw, but the age gap will also play into the final result on Saturday.

Statistically, former champions rarely find their way back to the title, and I think it’s very unlikely that Dillashaw gets through Sandhagen this weekend. Sandhagen’s striking and timing seems only matched by a Petr Yan or Sean O’Malley, and I see both of those guys beating TJ Dillashaw in a fight.

Dillashaw’s loss to Dominick Cruz is a big indicator of how this fight will go down, as Sandhagen bears a resemblance to ‘The Dominator’. Dillashaw looked puzzled by Cruz’ footwork and struggled to find the target with his strikes when they fought for the title in 2016.

Sandhagen is younger with more reach while also being taller, and has elite kicks to take away the movement of Dillashaw. Once slowed down or trapped, Dillashaw usually becomes a panic wrestler, and Sandhagen always closes the show once he smells blood in the water.

I don’t think Dillashaw could’ve picked a worse opponent for his octagon return, but credit to the man for taking the best of the best. The new generation simply beats the old on Saturday.

Prediction: Cory Sandhagen (-190) def. TJ Dillashaw

UFC Bantamweight TJ Dillashaw will be in main event action on Saturday and bettors can grab him as a short underdog. (AP)

UFC Vegas 32 Co-Main Event Prediction

Bantamweight Bout
Kyler Phillips vs. Raulian Paiva

Two young bantamweight prospects will battle it out this Saturday.

Kyler Phillips had a decent run in the 29th season of TUF (The Ultimate Fighter), and managed to pick up a UFC contract in 2017 after a first-round KO win on DWCS (Dana White’s Contender Series). Phillips has gotten the ‘dub in all of his three UFC fights so far, and even won a performance of the night bonus against Cameron Else, and a fight of the night bonus in his debut against Gabriel Silva.

Raulian Paiva also got his UFC contract after a DWCS series split-decision win, and has a 2-2 UFC record at the moment.

Watching tape and looking at the stats for these guys, the game plan is laid out for Phillips - he needs to wrestle and outwork Paiva in the clinch to win.

Paiva has decent takedown defense, but a negative strike differential makes me doubt what level of striking Paiva truly possesses. It’s not like he’s been matched up with crazy wrestlers either, so he’s had every opportunity to show us how good his hands are.

Phillips is a well-rounded guy, and honestly I think he will win if he stays standing too. Paiva isn’t a potent finisher, and doesn’t have submission skills in his back pocket either.

Both guys are very young at 25 years old, and it has been seen before that fighters around that age progress a lot from fight to fight. However, going into his fifth UFC fight, Paiva still hasn’t shown us any grappling prowess, and that’s not going to cut it against top competition in the bantamweight division - one of the most stacked UFC divisions at the moment.

As the old saying goes, there are levels to this. Kyler Phillips is levels above Raulian Paiva everywhere.

Prediction: Kyler Phillips (-300) def. Raulian Paiva

Featherweight Bout
Darrick Minner vs. Darren Elkins

The submission specialist versus the wrestler.

Darren Elkins is a renowned wrestler and veteran in the UFC. He is 15-8 in the UFC with one of the best comeback wins ever against Mirsad Bektic.

Darrick Minner is three fights into his UFC contract, and has picked up wins in all but one of his fights for the promotion.

In Minner’s 37 fight career, he has lost six of the eleven fights that have gone into the second round. That’s a 46% win rate in fights that enter the second round. Against, Elkins, a veteran who has been competing at the highest level since 2010, I don’t think Minner will do well.

Minner has also won 22 of his 26 wins by submission, which could mean he’s submission-or-bust.

Elkins has been submitted before, but he’s a savvy veteran who is hard to finish.

Elkins recently snapped a four-fight win streak, and has some wind in his sails coming into this fight.

I foresee Elkins dragging this fight into deep waters where he drowns Minner.

Prediction: Darren Elkins (+130) def. Darrick Minner

Women's Flyweight Bout
Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber

Five months ago, Maycee Barber was one of the biggest prospects in women’s MMA. Now, she’s one loss away from being just another contender in the ranks. It’s crazy how fast things change in MMA.

Barber is a potent striker, and when she’s at her best with two functional knees, she has some of the best power punching and perhaps the best killer instinct among active female UFC fighters today, rivalled by Nunes and Shevchenko. She really hits hard for her weight class.

Miranda Maverick is basically what Barber was two fights into her UFC contract. A good fighter with strong finishing ability. The key difference between the two is that Maverick predominantly uses her grappling abilities to win, whereas Barber relies on her striking to win.

Barber is actually also a good wrestler, but mostly uses it defensively.

Maycee usually dominates her opponents standing, while Miranda uses volume strikes to set up her takedowns. On the feet, I think Maycee wins, but on the ground, it’s anyone’s fight.

That said, it looked a bit too easy for Grasso to reverse Barber and control her on the ground in Maycee’s last outing. If Grasso can do that to you, Maverick is going to have a field day with you.

Prediction: Miranda Maverick (-135) def. Maycee Barber

Bantamweight Bout
Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa

This is a fun one.

Before we get into the prediction, let me offer my two cents on which fight will be the fight of the night. It’s this one.

In both each of Yanez' and Costa's last three fights neither has seen a scorecard. Combine that with the fact that Yanez and Costa have landed seven knockdowns combined in those same fights, and you get the idea of the punching power these guys have.

With that said, Adrian Yanez is my favorite in this fight. His striking is fluid, and he has good defense.

Costa is a dog in there too, but he gets hit too much for my liking.

Neither fighter has been taken down in the UFC, so it’ll be interesting to see if one of them comes in and starts grappling. Based on the tape I’ve watched on them both I think Yanez would be the one leading the grappling exchange in that scenario, however this fight hitting the mat by anything other than a knockdown would surprise me.

Costa is also very green in his pro MMA career, and only had his first professional bout in 2018. Compare that to Yanez’ starting out with a lengthy amateur career - going unbeaten - and then going pro in 2014. There’s a clear experience advantage for Adrian Yanez.

At this level, experience is very important. Yanez sends Costa back to the drawing board this Saturday.

Prediction: Adrian Yanez (-250) def. Randy Costa

UFC Vegas 32 Featured Preliminary Bout

Middleweight Bout
Brendan Allen vs. Punahele Soriano

The striker versus the grappler.

Brendan Allen’s UFC momentum was brought to a halt in November of last year, when ‘All In’ was knocked out by Sean Strickland. However a win over renowned striker Karl Robersen would put Allen back in the win column.

Punahele Soriano is predominantly a striker, and won his first two UFC bouts by first-round knockout. Now he faces a gifted grappler for the first time in his career.

Looking at his numbers, Soriano’s wrestling is questionable and this fight could answer many questions about his grappling prowess. It all depends on whether Allen will implement a grappling heavy game plan.

Allen’s submission skills are impeccable, yet he seems to fall in love with his hands from time to time. The last time he did so it cost him the fight, as he was KO’ed by Strickland.

On the feet Soriano is the far better striker with a wider strike differential and better defense. Dragging this fight to the ground should be the plan for Allen, but I’ve seen him make choices in the UFC that makes me question his fight IQ - most notably willingly striking with Sean Strickland.

All things considered, Soriano has yet to defend a takedown in the UFC, and that is too big a factor to neglect in this prediction. Allen isn’t the best chain wrestler, but if he gets top position on Soriano it could all be over in an instant.

After all, Allen has been in there with the strikers. Soriano has not been in there with the grapplers.

Prediction: Brendan Allen (-110) def. Punahele Soriano

Middleweight Bout
Ian Heinisch vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Heinisch recently flunked his big test against former Middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum, and now he’s back to prove himself against newly signed Nassourdine Imavov.

Imavov is a striker whose lack of wrestling defense should give him problems against a man with any level of grappling. Heinisch rarely goes for takedowns. In six UFC fights he’s shot for an average of one takedown every fight. That’s not much.

On the feet Imavov should school Heinisch, whose low striking volume usually leaves him on the losing end of the judges’ scorecards.

If Ian fights like he usually does, this could be a perfect matchup for Imavov. A hard-headed striker who wants to stand and trade - right up Imavov’s alley.

Heinisch’s inability to finish fights isn’t good considering striking is his bread and butter. For his size you would think he’d be better at going in for the kill more. However, we can only take his skill set as it is. He doesn’t possess much finishing ability.

Imavov has more of a killer instinct, but we haven’t seen it in the UFC octagon yet. His striking is good enough to make him (almost) win a three round fight with Phil Hawes after getting held down for 11 minutes. The fact that one judge scored that a draw just shows how game this guy is on the feet. He’s coming in here to win.

Killer instinct usually beats point fighting when the point fighter has trouble getting it done on points. At the very least Imavov is worth a small bet as an underdog.

Prediction: Nassourdine Imavov (+125) def. Ian Heinisch

Welterweight Bout
Jordan Williams vs. Mickey Gall

Jordan Williams finally got his UFC contract after a KO win on DWCS. He would then proceed to fight Nassourdine Imavov in his debut, and came up short, losing a unanimous decision.

Mickey Gall is the more experienced UFC fighter of the two, but his skills have never progressed to where it was believed they would. He still has gaping holes in his game, most notably his lacklustre striking defense.

A gym-less Mike Perry cornered by his girlfriend was able to out-strike Mickey Gall with a full camp. Jordan Williams isn’t a strong grappler but his willingness to engage and determination to win could work in his favour against a green striker like Gall.

This fight is 50/50. Gall could get a few takedowns and on the other hand Williams could prove to be too much for Mickey on the feet.

Comparing the statistics of the two, it seems Williams is better in his field than Gall. Mickey’s preferred area of fighting is on the ground, making me seriously question his take down game since he only averages around one takedown every three rounds.

Williams has a very large output of strikes on the feet, sort of like a Mike Perry. Gall doesn’t do well when pressured, and since Jordan rarely takes a back step I think he probably gets it done this weekend.

Prediction: Jordan Williams (-175) def. Mickey Gall

Bantamweight Bout
Julio Arce vs. Andre Ewell

Once again Andre Ewell has a big reach advantage, this time of five inches, but he faces yet another superior striker in a matchup where he tends to come up short.

The stage is set for Julio Arce to win this Saturday. All he needs to do is pressure Ewell for 15 minutes, and he will win comfortably.

Ewell’s reach is his claim to fame, but he is just so inefficient at using it. Once 5’6’’ Irwin Rivera with an eight inch reach disadvantage starts pressing him, Ewell can’t find his range at all. He needs to stay long to win, but he doesn't seem to know how.

Out of Andre’s four UFC wins, three have been via split-decision. On the other side of the table Julio Arce has been getting it done more two finishes and a unanimous decision.

Despite his reach, Ewell struggles to defend himself against punches. His distance management is off. As a result, he absorbs as many punches as he lands, which is why we usually see him win razor-thin decisions.

Julio Arce is good at what Ewell lacks the ability to do, get hit less than you hit your opponent.

Prediction: Julio Arce (-200) def. Andre Ewell

Women's Flyweight Bout
Sijara Eubanks vs. Elise Reed

Sijara Eubanks takes on UFC debutant Elise Reed.

Reed is 4-0 in MMA at the moment, and gets her to make her UFC debut in her fifth professional outing. While it’s an impressive feat to get into the UFC with so few fights, I think the signing is a result of the Women’s Flyweight weight class being shallow, more than Reed being unbeaten at 4-0.

I have nothing bad to say about fighters that are unbeaten. Obviously they are consistent. That said, at 4-0 it’s too early to tell what level Reed possesses.

Think of all the UFC rejects that probably started out winning eight or nine fights unbeaten before getting dismantled by UFC competition. Ben Askren was 19-0 prior to joining the UFC, my point being that it’s impossible to grasp the skill level of a 4-0 fighter due to the small sample size of fights we have at our disposal.

So how does Reed compare to Eubanks when watching tape? Not good. Reed suffers from a well-known condition in the lower ranks of women’s MMA, which is throwing volume strikes with little intent to really cause any damage.

Reed is a good kickboxer, I’ll give her that. But she almost never does anything other than throw light range finding kicks from a distance to keep her opponents away from her. She also tends to willingly give her opponents the center of the octagon, as she herself opts for getting on her bike to scatter around the fence for the entire duration of her fights, be it three or five rounds.

Reed’s defensive tendencies leave her extremely vulnerable to getting taken down or controlled in the clinch. When you give your opponent opportunities to control you, they will take it. Especially at UFC level. Unless you have the footwork of a Stephen Thompson, you can’t fight like that.

Eubanks is no god-gifted wrestler, but getting one takedown in just two of the three scheduled rounds should be enough to get the win 29-28 here. Reed will not be able to get back up.

In the clinch Eubanks should have a field day with Reed too, and Eubanks jthrows more strikes with intent to kill so she could win a pure striking fight too if she doesn’t feel like wrestling.

Prediction: Sijara Eubanks (TBA) def. Elise Reed

Women's Strawweight Bout
Hannah Goldy vs. Diana Belbita

Both fighters in this matchup have yet to get a ‘dub in the UFC octagon.

The seven inch reach- and three inch height advantage for Diana Belbita is everything in this matchup. When skills are even, physical attributes tend to get the job done.

Out of the two, Belbita has faced the better competition, most notably Molly McCann, in a fight where she gave a decent account of herself. Belbita’s big weakness is grappling, but since Goldy isn’t a wrestler this should be a good matchup for the taller fighter with a longer reach.

Goldy also suffers from the same issues as Elise Reed which I covered in my Eubanks-Reed prediction above, which is inexperience. She has only had six pro fights, while Belbita has had 19.

All in all, the major reach and height advantages should be enough for Belbita to keep this fight at a distance and pick Goldy apart.

Prediction: Diana Belbita (-105) def. Hannah Goldy

UFC Vegas 32 Main Card Predictions

Cory Sandhagen will beat TJ Dillashaw

Kyler Phillips will beat Raulian Paiva

Darren Elkins will beat Darrick Minner

Miranda Maverick will beat Maycee Barber

Adrian Yanez will beat Randy Costa

Odds & Bouts Subject to Change - per BetMGM

VegasInsider Staff

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