Feb 04, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds
- January 31, 2021
- By Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Odds & Analysis
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021
- TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Let’s have a look at this fight from a bettor’s perspective.
We got an 8-year age discrepancy between the fighters, but I don’t think that will play into this fight.
Alistair Overeem is a bit of a statistical outlier when it comes to age, as he seems to have entered his UFC career’s peak in his last five fights. If not for that controversial last-second KO to Rozenstruik, Overeem would be on a 5-fight win streak, 3 of those wins as an underdog.
Historically in the heavyweight division, the underdogs have cashed more often than in any other weight division, giving us some value on Overeem. Alistair has shown his ability to upset the bookies before.
Alexander Volkov tends to use his reach to pick his competition apart from the outside and has no problem going to a decision to do so. In the UFC, half of his wins have come via decision, which is quite irregular for a heavyweight.
I usually like fighters who are statistical outliers and use it to their advantage in order to win. However, whether it’s a lack of power or simply a matter of game-planning, Volkov’s tendency to drag fights to a decision will not do him well against Overeem. On the contrary.
At this point in his career, Alistair’s biggest weakness is facing someone who can blitz him early and shut his lights off before he can settle and get into his rhythm. Once he gets going, his veteran experience and knowledge of the game often earn him the win.
Since 2015, Overeem has gone past the first round 9 times and has won 7 of those times.
If Volkov wants a drawn-out fight that goes into the championship rounds, he is doing Alistair a favor. The superior grappling of ‘The Demolition Man’ could very well be put on display if the fight goes the distance.
The value is on Alistair Overeem as the underdog in this matchup.
Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds
Volkov remains a healthy -175 favorite over Overeem and we haven't seen much movement in this market after opening on January 13.
|Odds: Overeem vs. Volkov|
Overeem vs. Volkov Total Rounds
While most betting shops are offering 1.5 Rounds for this heavyweight clash, BetMGM is providing three different options with adjusted money for the five-round fight.
- Over 1.5 (-200) Under 1.5 (+165)
- Over 2.5 (+110) Under 2.5 (-135)
- Over 4.5 (+240) Under 4.5 (-300)
The consensus feeling is that this fight won't make the championship rounds (4th, 5th) and should be over within 15 minutes.
Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Insights
Age: Alexander Volkov is eight years younger than Alistair Overeem.
Experience: Since 2015, Overeem has won 7 out of 9 of his fights that have gone past round one.
Grappling: Overeem is the superior grappler in 3 of 4 statistical categories, only bested in takedown accuracy.
UFC Betting Odds History - Overeem vs. Volkov
Alistair Overeem (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
(W) Alistair Overeem -172 vs. Augusto Sakai +140
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
(W) Alistair Overeem +137 vs. Walt Harris -164
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
(L) Alistair Overeem +125 vs. Jairzinho Rosenstruik -152
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
(W) Alistair Overeem -250 vs. Aleksei Oleinik +200
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
(W) Alistair Overeem +118 vs. Sergey Pavlovich -139
Alexander Volkov (Last 5)
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
(W) Alexander Volkov -189 vs. Walt Harris (+162)
UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs. Volkov
(L) Alexander Volkov +300 vs. Curtis Blaydes -400
UFC on ESPN+ 21: Zabit vs. Kattar
(W) Alexander Volkov -333 vs. Greg Hardy +250
UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor
(W) Alexander Volkov -175 vs. Derrick Lewis +150
UFC Fight Night 127: Werdum vs. Volkov
(W) Alexander Volkov +180 vs. Fabricio Werdum -205
Overeem vs. Volkov Fight Breakdown and Pick
The winner of this fight will be a step closer to a shot at the title.
While the scheduled bout between Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik might determine who is the #1 ranked heavyweight, Overeem’s name recognition and -value will probably lead him to a title fight if he beats Volkov in impressive fashion. For Volkov, I see at least one or two more wins on top of Overeem if he wants a go at the champion.
Whoever can impose their gameplan on the other fighter will win this bout. Overeem will most likely look to grapple, whereas Volkov will look to keep the fight standing and finish Alistair. On the feet, Volkov has a higher striking differential than Overeem, but on the ground, ‘The Demolition Man’ will definitely be able to have his way with the Russian, granted he gets the fight there.
The problem I see for Volkov is that he is the one that has to prevent something from happening.
Overeem probably won’t have an issue standing with Volkov, but the Russian will have a problem on the ground with the underdog. I feel Volkov needs to pull a first-round KO out of the hat to win here, and I don’t see that happening based on the fact that he’s only managed one first-round KO in the last 6 years, and it wasn’t even in the UFC.
My early lean has me going with Overeem to cash as the underdog against Volkov.
UFC Fight Night - Co-Main Event Breakdown
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
The co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov features a classic veteran vs. up-and-comer matchup. Frankie Edgar, 39, made his UFC bantamweight debut in his last fight, earning an impressive underdog win over #8 ranked Pedro Munhoz. Edgar is 2-3 in his last 5.
On the other side of the cage, we’ve got 135-pound striking prospect Cory Sandhagen, who is coming off a second-round KO win over hard-hitting striker Marlon Moraes. Standing 5’1’’ tall, Sandhagen is unusually tall for the UFC’s bantamweight division, and will tower over the 5’6’’ Edgar.
A win over Edgar sets up Sandhagen for a bout against the winner of Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling, while a win over Sandhagen throws Frankie Edgar into the title mix in his new weight division.
Join me in breaking down the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, between Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Odds
As expected, Sandhagen is a very large favorite over Edgar who could likely get underdog support from casual UFC bettors just based on his name.
|Odds: Sandhagen vs. Edgar|
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Analysis
The betting line being this wide tells me that bookies and bettors believe that Edgar is on his way out, and I don’t really disagree with that. Edgar is 39 years old and peaked back in 2010 when he captured and defended the lightweight title. Problem is, we are in 2021 now, and I feel like Edgar’s skill set hasn’t evolved since the 2010 era of UFC fighting.
Big reach and height advantages for Sandhagen, along with one of the highest striking differentials in the UFC today makes ‘Sandman’ the rightful favorite.
My only concern is Sandhagen’s lacklustre takedown defense. His mindset seems to be that he has no problem going to the ground because he believes in his ability to scramble back to his feet. That didn’t work well for him against Sterling, however, Edgar is not the same submission wiz, but can still grind out a lay-and-pray decision if Sandhagen is not careful.
Still, I see very few indications that Edgar is a valuable bet, and even at -400 I honestly believe the value is on the 11-year younger fighter, but not H2H. For value, I recommend looking at the Sandhagen by decision lines when they open.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Insights
Age: Cory Sandhagen is 11 years younger than Frankie Edgar. In matchups with an 11-year gap, the youngster wins 7 out of 10 times.
Striking Wiz: Sandhagen has one of the highest active striking differentials in the UFC, meaning that he dishes out significantly more strikes compared to what he absorbs.
UFC Betting Odds History - Sandhagen vs. Edgar
Cory Sandhagen (Last 5)
UFC on ESPN+ 37: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
(W) Cory Sandhagen -152 vs. Marlon Moraes
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
(L) Cory Sandhagen -111 vs. Aljamain Sterling -111
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
(W) Cory Sandhagen -250 vs. Raphael Assuncao +200
UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare vs. Hermansson
(W) Cory Sandhagen +125 vs. John Lineker -152
UFC on ESPN+ 1: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
(W) Cory Sandhagen -500 vs. Mario Bautista +380
Frankie Edgar (Last 5)
UFC on ESPN 15: Munhoz vs. Edgar
(W) Frankie Edgar +225 vs. Pedro Munhoz -278
UFC on ESPN+ 23: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
(L) Frankie Edgar +150 vs. Chan Sung Jung -175
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
(L) Frankie Edgar +275 vs. Max Holloway -325
UFC Fight Night 128: Barboza vs. Lee
(W) Frankie Edgar -269 vs. Cub Swanson +241
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
(L) Frankie Edgar -152 vs. Brian Ortega +138
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Fight Breakdown and Pick
While it's hard not to root for Edgar as the veteran he is, I can’t see him getting the W over Sandhagen on February 6th.
While lackluster on paper, Sandhagen’s takedown defense of 30% does not account for times he’s gotten back to his feet. Edgar can not win this fight by striking with Sandhagen. In order to win on the scorecards, Edgar would need control time upwards of 2.30 minutes in at least 3 of the 5 scheduled rounds.
Frankie could very well get the better of Sandhagen early on, but as the fight goes on I foresee panic wrestling from ‘The Answer’, and Sandhagen pulling ahead on the scorecards, utilizing his large striking toolbox.
I’m predicting that Sandhagen gets his hand raised against Frankie Edgar, in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, on February 6th.
UFC Fight Night (UFC Vegas 18) Fight Card
Along with the two main events, there are currently nine other fights on tap for the UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Listed below are the "opening odds" on those fights per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Check out these numbers, then the updated odds to see where the money is going.
Flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja (-135) vs. Manel Kape (+110)
Bantamweight: Cody Stamann (-500) vs. Andre Ewell (+360)
Lightweight: Carlos Diego Ferreira (-120) vs. Beneil Dariush (+100)
Lightweight: Michael Johnson (-225) vs. Clay Guida (+180)
Light Heavyweight: Mike Rodríguez (-250) vs. Danilo Marques (+200)
Featherweight: Timur Valiev (-375) vs. Martin Day (+290)
Catchweight (160 lb): Devonte Smith (-300) vs. Justin Jaynes(+240)
Women's Bantamweight: Karol Rosa (-250) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+200)
Women's Flyweight: Molly McCann (-160)vs. Lara Procopio (+135)
Featherweight: Seung Woo Choi (+200) vs. Youssef Zalal (-250)
Featherweight: Ode Osbourne (-185) vs. Jerome Rivera (+155)
Odds & Card Subject to Change - Updated 2.4.21
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