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NASCAR South Point 400 Picks, Preview


Sept. 22, 2021


Let’s make this the best weekend ever featuring the best road trip ever. It’s time for a little Las Vegas getaway, right?

The Las Vegas sportsbook has all kinds of activities for wagering this weekend from MLB pennant races to college football to pro football on Sunday and then a quick ride to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway at night for the South Point 400 with bet tickets in hand.

NASCAR South Point 400 Analysis

As part of your Las Vegas experience, you'll walk around the strip and downtown and while grabbing a beer you also get intel on what that sportsbook is offering for the South Point 400. When you see Alex Bowman at 28-to-1 odds anywhere, you bet it right then and also get a phone account there. And then get another beer.

Do you see what we're doing here? We’re multitasking while starting a drinking binge. After a few more finds and phone accounts we’re ready to bet baseball for the night action as well as bet some early college football.

It’s not irresponsible betting intoxicated when you already know coming to Las Vegas what you’re going to bet, or who you’re going to target in odds to win and also driver match-ups. You should have a driver rating already set for drivers on 1.5-mile tracks or any of the 10 races using the high downforce race package with engines producing only 550 horsepower.

And you also don’t variate from your normal wager or bankroll. Just because you are in Vegas doesn’t mean going extreme in betting patterns. It’s just another race, although I would argue that this week’s race package allows a driver rating to hold truer than the other two race packages being used in 2020 and 2021.

In between the search we Uber to the Double Down Saloon on Paradise which has an amazing happy hour with $2 drinks. Everything on the self and cooler. Bud Light and Gentleman Jack, $2 each. It’s an eclectic mix of society that routinely visits despite probably the worst restrooms ever which people say adds charm to the experience. Doctors, lawyers, young people, old people, men and women with a punk rock spin. They’re all there. No TV’s accept old music videos from bands like the Misfits, or that’s how I remember my last visit. The vibe is the lure.

By now you are already getting familiar with all your phone accounts and finding stupid prices on props in all sports. Stay focused. You’ve checked Circa Sports and the Las Vegas SuperBook for the best odds among the favored drivers and then you scan the other books to see if any errors have been made.

South Point 400 Betting Resources

  • Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
  • TV-Time: NBCSN, 7"00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps
  • Defending Champion: Kurt Busch (2020)

Alex Bowman has been a driver I’ve seen sportsbooks continually disrespect despite him winning three races and being from Hendrick Motorsports. Caesars sportsbooks have William Byron 10-to-1 but Bowman 18-to-1. Yes, Byron had 17 top-10s to Bowman’s 14, but this is about winning and Bowman has three wins, Byron had one win at Homestead back in February.

“Going to Vegas this weekend, it is a good track for the 48 team,” Bowman said. “We have seen success there in the past, and earlier this season we had a top-10, if not a top-five run going before we had a tire go down. Our mile-and-a-half program is strong and this Ally team has been working hard on our Chevrolets. This round of the playoffs has a lot of good tracks for us, so we are looking to have strong runs in the next three weeks.”

The thing that stands out to me in all of Bowman’s wins this season is how great his crew made his car as the races went on. He was faster than everyone late. We’ll all take the best price on Bowman through our apps.

Bowman made reference to the three races in the Round of 12. There are 12 drivers remaining in the playoffs after four got chopped last week at Bristol. This round has Las Vegas, Talladega, and then the Charlotte ROVAL to close the round out and chop four more drivers.

South Point 400 Contenders

  • Kyle Larson +350
  • Kyle Busch. +600
  • Denny Hamlin +700
  • Chase Elliott +800
  • Martin Truex, Jr. +900
  • More NASCAR Futures
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

That is a wild round using all three of NASCAR’s race packages. Kyle Busch explained the difficulties the three packages present.

“I think everyone heads to Las Vegas putting a lot of pressure on themselves to make sure they run well in that event because they know what the next two races have in store for them,” Busch said. “If you asked any crew chief what race are they are most focused on in that round, they would all tell you Vegas to try and have a good race. With having that much focus on that race, it’s going to make that one tough, as well. You just go out there and do the best you can do.

“We ended up throwing a bit of a Hail Mary at the Roval and it ended up costing us a bit, so that’s just the unfortunate nature of those two races being in the round together, and we certainly want to get off to a strong start at Vegas with our M&M’S Camry. We’ll have our friends at Ethel M with their logos on our car, as well. They are located right there in Henderson and we are hoping to give them a great run.”

I went on an Ethel M tour when I was a kid growing up in Vegas and I suppose it was fun, but it’s out of our way on this trip.

We have to eat and this is where we decide if we go back to the hotel and clean up to go to a nice place or keep dirt rolling on the day. I’m always good for a Fatburger on the strip (they serve beer) but I choose the Circus Circus Steakhouse and brief body cleanup.

We don’t have a reservation, but we call and place one. Then we show up early and ask for Ron the manager, hand him a $100 bill and tell him Mr. Bennett said to say hello and to seat us. Mr. Bennett is Bill Bennett who built the entire Circus Circus enterprise, and SteakHouse, which later evolved into MGM Resorts.

Chances are we get a table for six to eight with a view to the cook’s open square grill that is producing such amazing flavor with their aged beef. Two bottles of wine and a couple of large lobster tails, too. And then the best cheesecake you could ever remember to cap it off. Tip the staff another 50% of your bill and tell them "thank you" for good weekend karma.

Kyle Larson enters Vegas as the favorite after winning in Bristol last weekend. (AP)

Handicapping NASCAR at Las Vegas

So let’s talk about favorite Kyle Larson who won the spring race at LVMS after leading a race-high 103 laps. The question is whether we go all-in with him, throw him out altogether, or create some strategy where we can bet him and make a small amount if he wins. Still ahead, but not by much.

I could argue that I should just throw it all on Larson to maximize his potential but that sounds like drinking talk. Stay the course. I’ve bet him to be just an insurance policy for my bankroll this week. If he wins, I don’t lose, I just break even. It's out of total respect.

“It’s nice going back to a track we’ve won at before,” Larson said. “We were really good at Vegas earlier this year, so definitely excited to go back and hoping we have similar speed. The temperature will be much warmer this weekend, so that changes things but our team has been really good at adapting to every situation this year. Hopefully, we can prepare well and have another good car and battle for the win.”

We’ve had 10 races with this week’s race package and he’s won three of them, including the non-points All-Star Race at Texas. He’s either all the way badass, has a minor pit error, or misses the set-up altogether which has happened once or twice this season. But he’s the star of the season with six wins, most laps led, top-fives, and top-10s.

Before the sun comes up Saturday morning we have to have our agreed upon college football action. I lend Notre Dame +6.5 against Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Chicago as my game. I also am looking at Sunday’s card where the Steelers -3 looks cheap at home despite sharp money betting the other side (Bengals).

We spend Saturday sportsbook hopping and watching the games, betting in-play, and while Circa Sports gets all the attention for its fantastic sportsbook, I love the bar at Golden Gate which is the oldest hotel in Las Vegas as well.

We refresh our apps and see if the NASCAR odds have fluctuated to try and bait me on a few fringe drivers I was thinking about but needed prodding by offering better odds. No practice or qualifying to sift through, just bareback into the green flag.

Caesars have last year’s winner Kurt Busch at 25-to-1 odds. He’s out of the playoffs, but he hasn’t raced the 550 HP package since finishing fourth at Michigan in August, and before that, it was a dominant win at Atlanta where he led a race-high 144 laps. The SuperBook has him at 40-to-1 odds to win. Go get some.

Last fall’s Las Vegas win for Kurt Busch was his first win in any series on his home track. He won at the Bullring, but not the Speedway. Cup, Xfinity, Busch, Trucks, Winston West, he raced them all and never won. The NASCAR betting rule is that you always bet the driver in some way who won the race a year ago, or in the spring race. So that means Larson and Busch are in. Gotta give Bowman some love as well.

The Monday morning trip home is brutal, but I think we won some nice cash and paid for our trip, drinks, and dinners. Be sure to take care of your bell service and valet, and maybe go back and find that bartender that made you laugh and took care of you. Give him a few bucks since you've won.

It’s wall-to-wall betting action from the time you arrive to the time you leave. It’s the best guy’s trip ever and something that every wife or girlfriend should set aside for their man once a year.

This is it. This is the weekend getaway. Vegas, here we come.

For any more Las Vegas recommendations, feel free to ask me on twitter at @MicahRoberts7.

South Point 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #5 Kyle Larson (7/2)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (13/2)
4) #48 Alex Bowman (18/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (14/1)

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