Purdue vs. Iowa Predictions, Odds


  • December 22, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Purdue Boilermakers look to keep they momentum going in a Big Ten battle when they travel to Iowa City and take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Tip is set for 9 p.m. (ET) on the Big Ten Network from the Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa.

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Purdue-Iowa Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Iowa -6
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 160.5

Odds Subject to Change

The Hawkeyes enter this conference home games as a -6-point favorite after dropping their last game to the Gonzaga Bulldogs. After six straight games of offensive dominance, the Hawkeyes fell down to earth a bit and lost their first game of the season.

Purdue is coming off of back-to-back wins over Ohio State and Notre Dame, now having to face the toughest offensive team they've seen this season.The Boilermakers are just 1-2 on the road, losing both games to ACC schools (Clemson and Miami-Florida). The Miami loss is a bit concerning, although Purdue has won three straight since then.

Both schools are a combined 12-3 O/U this season, with the game point total at 160.5.

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Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-2
  • ATS: 3-4-1
  • SU - Home: 5-0
  • SU - Away: 1-2
  • O/U: 5-3

Purdue is still searching for its first big win on the road, as a neutral court victory over Notre Dame is the club's best road win so far. Purdue is a bit odd when breaking down their numbers, presenting fluctuating statistics. The Boilermakers allow just 65 points per game which ranks 88th in the nation.

Despite allowing only 65 points per game, the Boilermakers' defensive efficiency actually ranks 147th (95.2). Purdue has an offensive efficiency rating of 109.2, which ranks 77th nationally. However, they only score 74.6 points per game, which ranks 154th nationally. The team shows signs of promise in games, but then disappears as consistency is the school's biggest issue.

Trevion Williams is the leader of this club, averaging a near double-double and provides veterans experience with teammate Sasha Stefanovic. Zach Edey is the difference-maker for this team however, as he is only averaging 11.3 points per game and seems to be getting better with more games under his belt (freshman).

The big question is whether or not Purdue can maintain a high-scoring offense to keep pace with Iowa? Possibly. Purdue actually has the 30th-most made three-pointers nationally (71), 47th-most made field goals nationally (217) and 55th-most rebounds nationally (297). It seems Purdue actually has the ingredients to pull off an upset, just not enough consistency or conviction when playing on the road.

Betting Analysis – Iowa Hawkeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-1
  • ATS: 5-2
  • SU - Home: 6-0
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 7-0

There's not much to say about this team that hasn't been said already, they score buckets. Luka Garza is running away with the Wooden Award currently, and he is surrounded by serial scorers. Joe Wieskamp, C.J. Fredrick and Patrick McCaffery all average close to 10 points per game or more.

Although Jordan Bohannon has cooled off lately, he is still a threat to score and now averages 4.9 assists per game. The Hawkeyes offense averages roughly 100 points per game, which is the best nationally. Although Purdue has decent offensive numbers this season, the Hawkeyes are much better.

Iowa ranks 19th in field goals made (246), 27th in free throws made (125), 22nd in three-pointers made (74), 68th in three-point percentage (37%), fifth in assists (160) and 12th in points (691). With the Hawkeyes traveling back home after a tough loss in Sioux Falls to the country's best team, expect more offensive production in this game.

Iowa returns to the comforts of their own home, and are probably anxious to take the court for redemption of the Gonzaga loss.

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 74.6 (154th)
  • PA/G: 65 (88th)
  • Off Rtg: 109.3 (74th)
  • Def Rtg: 95.2 (147th)

Inside the Stats – Iowa Hawkeyes

  • PS/G: 98.7 (1st)
  • PA/G: 72.9 (231st)
  • Off Rtg: 128.9 (2nd)
  • Def Rtg: 95.1 (145th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PUR - Trevion Williams (13.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG)
  • PUR - Zach Edey (11.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
  • IOWA - Luka Garza (29.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
  • IOWA - Joe Wieskamp (15.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG)

Purdue-Iowa Predictions

If Purdue was at home then this game would seem much more difficult to pick. Purdue's struggles on the road, especially closing out road games, is a real concern here. There is a chance Purdue gets hot early on, but the Hawkeyes at home should at the very least win the second half.

Iowa should cover the spread, actually covering in six straight games before running into the Gonzaga Bulldogs. With the 83rd-most steals and 13th-most blocked shots, Iowa will force Purdue to shoot beyond the arc. If the Boilermakers want to pull off a road upset, then they will have to be lights out from three.

Don't count on it, although the Iowa defense is nothing to ride home about either. As good as Iowa is they don't play stellar defense. Purdue actually gets the defensive nod here, and they might be able to hold Iowa from touching 80. Purdue needs to touch 80 for the current point total to hit, which I wouldn't count on.

  • Score Prediction: Iowa 80 Purdue 75
  • Best Bets: UNDER
  • Best Bets: Iowa 2H

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