Maryland vs. Purdue Predictions, Odds

• December 25, 2020
• By David Schwab
• VegasInsider.com

As part of four-game Big Ten Christmas Day schedule, the Maryland Terrapins and the Purdue Boilermakers square off against one another in a 2:30 p.m. (ET) tip at Mackey Arena. FS1 will cover the game nationally.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Conference: Big Ten
• Venue: Mackey Arena
• Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
• Date: Friday, Dec. 25, 2020
• Time: 2:30 p.m.
• TV: FS1
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet |William Hill | Best Sportsbooks

WHERE TO BET MARYLAND-PURDUE

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Maryland-Purdue Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Purdue -5
• Money-Line: Purdue -205 Maryland +165
• Total: 136

Odds Subject to Change

Purdue opened as a -5.5-point home favorite but most boards have moved the current spread down to five. The total opened at 135 but it has ticked up slightly to 136 points. The Terrapins come in with a straight-up record of 5-2 while going 3-4 against the spread.

They have failed to cover in their last three games. The total has gone OVER in three of the last five outings. Maryland has been able to cover in four of its last five games against the Boilermakers but it has lost five of the last seven meetings SU.

The total has gone OVER in six of its last seven Big Ten games. Yet, it has stayed UNDER five of the Terrapins last six games against Purdue. The Boilermakers slipped to 6-3 SU with Tuesday’s 15-point loss to Iowa as seven-point road underdogs.

They have now failed to cover in five of their last six games including a PUSH in a win over Ohio State. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. As a fringe trend, Purdue is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games played on a Friday.

Betting Analysis – Maryland Terrpains

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 5-2
• ATS: 3-4
• SU - Home: 5-1
• SU - Away: 0-1
• O/U: 4-2-1

Maryland opened its Big Ten schedule with a 14-point loss to Rutgers as a -2.5-point home favorite. It bounced back to beat La Salle by 13 points, with Eric Ayala leading the way.

The junior guard scored 23 points in Tuesday’s win and he leads the team with 14.6 points per game. He is shooting 49.2% from the field but just 32.2% from three-point range.

Four different Terrapins are averaging at least 10 PPG. With a team-scoring average of 75.9 PPG, Maryland has a 48.8 field-goal percentage. That drops to 34.9% from three-point range.

The team is averaging 37.3 rebounds. The Terrapins are holding opponents to 64.1 points on the other end of the court with 31.1 defensive rebounds a game.

Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 6-3
• ATS: 3-5-1
• SU - Home: 5-0
• SU - Away: 1-3
• O/U: 5-4

Purdue had no answer for Luka Garza and No. 4 Iowa in its last outing. However, the Boilermakers are still one of the best Big Ten teams among the middle of the pack in this conference.

Forward Trevion Williams has led the way in both points (13.8) and rebounds (9.7) through the first nine games. There are four more players with at least nine PPG to provide some decent scoring depth.

While shooting 46.6% from the field and 38% from three-point range, the Boilermakers are averaging 72.4 PPG.

Purdue has allowed an average of 65.6 points on defense with 28.4 of its 37.3 rebounds coming on that end of the court. Opposing teams are shooting an average of 41.3% from the field.

Inside the Stats – Maryland Terrapins

• PS/G: 75.9 (127th)
• PA/G: 64.1 (71st)
• Off Rtg: 113.9 (39th)
• Def Rtg: 96.4 (168th)

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

• PS/G: 72.4 (186th)
• PA/G: 65.6 (97th)
• Off Rtg: 106.7 (108th)
• Def Rtg: 96.6 (173rd)

Key Players to Watch

• MARY - Eric Ayala (14.6 PPG)
• MARY - Donta Scott (12.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
• PUR - Trevion Williams (13.8 PPG, 9.7 RPG)
• PUR - Sasha Stefanovic (12 PPG)

Maryland-Purdue Predictions

Maryland has been a solid play ATS in recent games against Purdue. However, my lean is towards the Boilermakers both SU and ATS on Christmas Day. The Terrapins’ bad loss to Rutgers raises a few red flags with this team. The Boilermakers’ overall scoring depth becomes a big edge.

I do not see either team lighting things up to combine for more than 136 points even though the early line movements have been in that direction. Focusing on each team’s defensive points-allowed average, my lean is towards the UNDER..

• Score Prediction: Purdue 67 Maryland 60
• Best Bets: Purdue
• Best Bets: UNDER

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